Two Weeks in July 2004 Not Your Fathers
- Slides: 95
Two Weeks in July 2004: Not Your Father’s World!
“China’s size does not merely enable low-cost manufacturing; it forces it. Increasingly, it is what Chinese businesses and consumers choose for themselves that determines how the American economy operates. ” —Ted Fishman/“The Chinese Century”/ The New York Times Magazine/07. 04
“One Monday this spring, a forty-three-year-old sales clerk at the Home Depot in Plano, Texas, scribbled some updates onto an old resume and took it to his local copy shop. To his education and work history—a bachelor’s degree in industrial engineering and technology, service in the U. S. Marine Corps—he added a recent moonlighting job as a handyman and a new ‘career objective. ’ Ten minutes later, in southern India, a middle-age Hindu man in a cavernous workplace began to type the Home Depot clerk’s words. ” —The New Yorker /07. 05. 2004
“The Ultimate Luxury Item* Is Now Made in China” —Headline/p 1/ The New York Times/ 07. 13. 2004 *Luxury Yachts made in Zhongshan
“Vaunted German Engineers Face Competition From China” —Headline, p 1/WSJ/07. 15. 2004
Chinese Industrial Growth Rate Slows! April ’ 03 to April ’ 04: 19. 1% May ’ 03 to May ’ 04: 17. 5% Source: NYT/06. 11. 04
“JET BLUE has a secret weapon: a virtual reservations center. … Jet Blue’s 600 agents all work from home. …” Source: Ad for Avaya/BW/07. 19. 2004
“Uncertainty is the only thing to be sure of. ” —Anthony Muh, head of investment in Asia, Citigroup Asset Management “If you don’t like change, you’re going to like irrelevance even less. ” —General Eric Shinseki, Chief of Staff, U. S. Army
Forbes 100 from 1917 to 1987: 39 members of the Class of ’ 17 were alive in ’ 87; 18 in ’ 87 F 100; 18 F 100 “survivors” underperformed the market by 20%; just 2 (2%), GE & Kodak, outperformed the market 1917 to 1987. S&P 500 from 1957 to 1997: 74 members of the Class of ’ 57 were alive in ’ 97; 12 (2. 4%) of 500 outperformed the market from 1957 to 1997. Source: Dick Foster & Sarah Kaplan, Creative Destruction: Why Companies That Are Built to Last Underperform the Market
Re-imagine ! Tom Peters/16 July 2004/Aspen The Donnelley Group/info. USA
Slides at … tompeters. com
Rule #1: A Bias for Action!
The Kotler Doctrine: 1965 -1980: R. A. F. (Ready. Aim. Fire. ) 1980 -1995: R. F. A. (Ready. Fire!Aim. ) 1995 -? ? : F. F. F. (Fire!Fire!)
“We have a ‘strategic plan. ’ It’s called doing things. ” — Herb Kelleher
Fail. Forward. Fast.
Sam’s Secret #1!
Fail. Forward. Fast. –High-tech Exec
Weird Wins!
Huh? “Quiet, workmanlike, stoic leaders bring about the big transformations. ” —JC
Wellington Nelson Disraeli Churchill Montgomery Thatcher
“Humble” Pastels? T. Paine/P. Henry/A. Hamilton/T. Jefferson/B. Franklin A. Lincoln/U. S. Grant/W. T. Sherman TR/FDR/LBJ/RR/JFK Patton/Monty/Halsey M. L. King/C. de Gaulle/M. Gandhi/W. Churchill Picasso/Mozart/Copernicus/Newton/Einstein/Djerassi/Watson H. Clinton/G. Steinem/I. Gandhi/G. Meir/M. Thatcher E. Shockley/A. Grove/J. Welch/L. Gerstner/L. Ellison/B. Gates/ S. Jobs/S. Mc. Nealy/T. Turner/R. Murdoch/W. Wriston/S. Weill A. Carnegie/J. P. Morgan/H. Ford/S. Honda/J. D. Rockefeller/ T. A. Edison Elizabeth Cady Stanton/Susan B. Anthony/Martha Cary Thomas/Carrie Chapman Catt/Alice Paul/Anna Elizabeth Dickinson/Arabella Babb Mansfield/Margaret Sanger
Hypothesis: Innovation is easy!
Saviors-in-Waiting Disgruntled Customers Off-the-Scope Competitors Rogue Employees Fringe Suppliers Wayne Burkan, Wide Angle Vision: Beat the Competition by Focusing on Fringe Competitors, Lost Customers, and Rogue Employees
CUSTOMERS: “Futuredefining customers may account for only 2% to 3% of your total, but they represent a crucial window on the future. ” Adrian Slywotzky, Mercer Consultants
COMPETITORS: “The best swordsman in the world doesn’t need to fear the second best swordsman in the world; no, the person for him to be afraid of is some ignorant antagonist who has never had a sword in his hand before; he doesn’t do the thing he ought to do, and so the expert isn’t prepared for him; he does the thing he ought not to do and often it catches the expert out and ends him on the spot. ” Mark Twain
“To grow, companies need to break out of a vicious cycle of competitive benchmarking and imitation. ” —W. Chan Kim & Renée Mauborgne, “”Think for Yourself —Stop Copying a Rival, ” Financial Times/08. 11. 03
“This is an essay about what it takes to create and sell something remarkable. It is a plea for originality, passion, guts and daring. You can’t be remarkable by following someone else who’s remarkable. One way to figure out a theory is to look at what’s working in the real world and determine what the successes have in common. But what could the Four Seasons and Motel 6 possibly have in common? Or Neiman-Marcus and Wal*Mart? Or Nokia (bringing out new hardware every 30 days or so) and Nintendo (marketing the same Game Boy 14 years in a row)? It’s like trying to drive looking in the The thing that all these companies have in common is that they have nothing in common. They are outliers. They’re on rearview mirror. the fringes. Superfast or superslow. Very exclusive or very cheap. Extremely big or extremely small. The reason its so hard to follow the leader is this: The leader is the leader precisely because he did something remarkable. And that remarkable thing is now taken—so it’s no longer remarkable when you decide to do it. ” —Seth Godin, Fast Company/02. 2003
Employees: “Are there enough weird people in the lab these days? ” V. Chmn. , pharmaceutical house, to a lab director (06. 01)
Best Talent (or Else)!
“When land was the scarce resource, nations battled over it. The same is happening now for talented people. ” Stan Davis & Christopher Meyer, future. WEALTH
Age of Agriculture Industrial Age of Information Intensification Age of Creation Intensification Source: Murikami Teruyasu, Nomura Research Institute
“The leaders of Great Groups love talent and know where to find it. They revel in the talent of others. ” Warren Bennis & Patricia Ward Biederman, Organizing Genius
Model 25/8/53 Sports Franchise GM
Women Rule!
“AS LEADERS, WOMEN RULE: New Studies find that female managers outshine their male counterparts in almost every measure” Title, Special Report, Business. Week, 11. 20. 00
Opportunity! M. Mgt. U. S. 41% G. B. 29% T. Mgt. 4% 3% 2% <1% Peak Partic. Age 45 22 % Coll. Stud. 52% 50% E. U. 18% 27 48% Ja. 6% 19 26% Source: Judy Rosener, America’s Competitive Secret
Challenge!
“Ninety percent of what we call ‘management’ consists of making it difficult for people to get things done. ” – P. D.
“I don’t know. ”
Quests!
Organizing Genius / Warren Bennis and Patricia Ward Biederman “Groups become great only when everyone in them, leaders and members alike, is free to do his or her absolute best. ” “The best thing a leader can do for a Great Group is to allow its members to discover their greatness. ”
WOW!
Language matters! Wow! BHAG! “Takes your breath away!”
“Astonish me!” / S. D. “Build something great!” / H. Y. “Immortal!” / D. O.
“Let’s make a dent in the universe. ” Steve Jobs
“Reward excellent failures. Punish mediocre successes. ” Phil Daniels, Sydney exec
Scale the Value-added Alps!
A Sea of Sameness
“While everything may it is also increasingly the same. ” be better, Paul Goldberger on retail, “The Sameness of Things, ” The New York Times
“The ‘surplus society’ has a surplus of similar companies, employing similar people, with similar educational backgrounds, coming up with similar ideas, producing similar things, with similar prices and similar quality. ” Kjell Nordström and Jonas Ridderstråle, Funky Business
“We make over three new product announcements a day. Can you remember them? Our customers can’t!” Carly Fiorina
From Products and Services to Solutions
09. 11. 2000: HP bids $18, 000, 000 for Pricewaterhouse. Coopers consulting business!
“These days, building the best server isn’t enough. That’s the price of entry. ” Ann Livermore, Hewlett-Packard
Systems Integrator of choice. Global Services: Gerstner’s IBM: $35 B. Pledge/’ 99: Business Partner Charter. 72 strategic partners, aim for 200. Drop many in-house programs/products. (BW/12. 01).
“UPS wants to take over the sweet spot in the endless loop of goods, information and capital that all the packages [it moves] represent. ” ecompany. com/06. 01 (E. g. , UPS Logistics manages the logistics of 4. 5 M Ford vehicles, from 21 mfg. sites to 6, 000 NA dealers)
From Solutions to Scintillating Experiences
“Experiences are as distinct from services as services are from goods. ” Joseph Pine & James Gilmore, The Experience Economy: Work Is Theatre & Every Business a Stage
“Club Med is more than just a ‘resort’; it’s a means of rediscovering oneself, of inventing an entirely new ‘me. ’ ” Source: Jean-Marie Dru, Disruption
Experience: “Rebel Lifestyle!” “What we sell is the ability for a 43 -year-old accountant to dress in black leather, ride through small towns and have people be afraid of him. ” Harley exec, quoted in Results-Based Leadership
WHAT CAN BROWN DO FOR YOU?
It’s All About EXPERIENCES: “Trapper” to “Wildlife Damage-control Professional” Trapper: <$20 per beaver pelt. WDCP: $150/“problem beaver”; $750 -$1, 000 for flood-control piping … so that beavers can stay. Source: WSJ/05. 21. 2002
Duet … Whirlpool … “washing machine” to “fabric care system” … white goods: “a sea of undifferentiated boxes” … $400 to $1, 300 … “the Ferrari of washing machines” … consumer: “They are our little mechanical buddies. They have personality. When they are running efficiently, our lives are running efficiently. They are part of my family. ” … “machine as aesthetic showpiece” … “laundry room” to “family studio” / “designer laundry room” (complements Sub-Zero refrigerator and home-theater center) Source: New York Times Magazine/01. 11. 2004
1997 -2001 >$600: 10% to 18% $400 -$600: 49% to 32% <$400: 41% to 50% Source: Trading Up, Michael Silverstein & Neil Fiske
“Clients want either the best or the least expensive; there is no in between. ” —John Dijulius, Secret Service
Trends Worth Trillion$$$: Pursue the “BIG 2” Underserved Markets!
Women!
? ? ? ? ? Home Furnishings … 94% Vacations … 92% (Adventure Travel … 70%/ $55 B travel equipment) Houses … 91% D. I. Y. (major “home projects”) … 80% Consumer Electronics … 51% (66% home computers) Cars … 68% (90%) All consumer purchases … 83% Bank Account … 89% Household investment decisions … 67% Small business loans/biz starts … 70% Health Care … 80%
91% women: ADVERTISERS DON’T UNDERSTAND US. (58% “ANNOYED. ”) Source: Greenfield Online for Arnold’s Women’s Insight Team (Martha Barletta, Marketing to Women)
Female. Think/ Popcorn “Men and women don’t think the same way, don’t communicate the same way, don’t buy for the same reasons. ” “He simply wants the transaction to take place. She’s interested in creating a relationship. Every place women go, they make connections. ”
1. Men and women are different. 2. Very different. 3. VERY, VERY DIFFERENT. 4. Women & Men have a-b-s-o-l-u-t-e-l-y nothing in common. 5. Women buy lotsa stuff. 6. WOMEN BUY A-L-L THE STUFF. 7. Women’s Market = Opportunity No. 1. 8. Men are (STILL) in charge. 9. MEN ARE … TOTALLY, HOPELESSLY CLUELESS ABOUT WOMEN. 10. Women’s Market = Opportunity No. 1.
Boomers & Geezers
2000 -2010 Stats 18 -44: -1% 55+: +21% (55 -64: +47%)
44 -65: “New Consumer Majority” * *45% larger than 18 -43; 60% larger by 2010 Source: Ageless Marketing, David Wolfe & Robert Snyder
“The New Consumer Majority is the only adult market with realistic prospects for significant sales growth in dozens of product lines for thousands of companies. ” —David Wolfe & Robert Snyder, Ageless Marketing
“Marketers attempts at reaching those over 50 have been miserably unsuccessful. No market’s motivations and needs are so poorly understood. ”—Peter Francese, founding publisher, American Demographics
Leaders Deal in Hope!
“Create a ‘cause, ’ not a ‘business. ’ ” G. H. :
“A key – perhaps the key – to leadership is the effective communication of a story. ” Howard Gardner Leading Minds: An Anatomy of Leadership
“A leader is a dealer in hope. ” Napoleon (+TP’s writing room pics)
“Ronald Reagan radiated an almost transcendent happiness. ” Lou Cannon, George (08. 2000)
“I’m not sure about his politics, but that’s not what made him great. He inspired people. He made us all feel better about ourselves. ” —bystander, California, during RR funeral
BZ: “I am a … Dispenser of Enthusiasm!”
Boil It Down!
Successful Businesses’ Dozen Truths: TP’s 30 -Year Perspective 1. Insanely Great & Quirky Talent. 2. Disrespect for Tradition. 3. Totally Passionate (to the Point of Irrationality) Belief in What We Are Here to Do. 4. Utter Disbelief at the BS that Marks “Normal Industry Behavior. ” 5. A Maniacal Bias for Execution … and Utter Contempt for Those Who Don’t “Get It. ” 6. Speed Demons. 7. Up or Out. (Meritocracy Is Thy Name. Sycophancy Is Thy Scourge. ) 8. Passionate Hatred of Bureaucracy. 9. Willingness to Lead the Customer … and Take the Heat Associated Therewith. (Mantra: Satan Invented Focus Groups to Derail True Believers. ) 10. “Reward Excellent Failures. Punish Mediocre Successes. ” 11. Courage to Stand Alone on One’s Record of Accomplishment Against All the Forces of Conventional Wisdom. 12. A Crystal Clear Understanding of Story (Brand) Power.
All You Need to Know About “Strategy” 1. Do you have awesome Talent … everywhere? (“We are the Yankees of home improvement here in Witchita. ”) Do you push that Talent to pursue audacious Quests? 2. Is your Talent Pool loaded with wonderfully peculiar people who others would call “problems”? 3. Is your Board of Directors as cool as your product offerings … and does it have 50% (or at least one-third) Women Members? 4. Are Innovation and Entrepreneurship your primary aims? 5. Do you routinely use hot, aspirational words-terms like “Excellence” and B. H. A. G. (Big Hairy Audacious Goal, per Jim Collins) and “Let’s make a dent in the Universe” (the Word according to Steve Jobs)? 6. Do you subscribe to Jerry Garcia’s dictum: “We do not merely want to be the best of the best, we want to be the only ones who do what we do”? 7. Do you embrace the new technologies with child-like enthusiasm/revolutionary zeal? 8. Do you “serve” customers … or go berserk attempting to provide every customer with an “awesome experience” that automatically turns her/him into a “raving fan”? 9. Are your leaders accessible? Do they wear their passion on their sleeves? Is yours a “hot place to hang out” and “learn cool stuff”? 10. Does integrity ooze out of every pore of the enterprise? Is “We care” your implicit motto? 11. Do you understand business mantra #1 of the ’ 00 s: DON’T TRY TO COMPETE WITH WAL*MART ON PRICE OR CHINA ON COST? (And if you get this last idea, then see the 10 above!)
Kevin Roberts’ Credo 1. Ready. Fire! Aim. 2. If it ain’t broke. . . Break it! 3. Hire crazies. 4. Ask dumb questions. 5. Pursue failure. 6. Lead, follow. . . or get out of the way! 7. Spread confusion. 8. Ditch your office. 9. Read odd stuff. 10. Avoid moderation!
Sir Richard’s Rules: Follow your passions. Keep it simple. Get the best people to help you. Re-create yourself. Play. Source: Fortune/10. 03
Technicolor Rules!
“In Tom’s world, it’s always better to try a swan dive and deliver a colossal belly flop than to step timidly off the board while holding your nose. ” —Fast Company /October 2003
Importance of Success Factors by Various “Gurus”/Biased Estimates by Tom Peters Strategy Systems Passion Execution Porter 50% 20 15 15 Drucker 35% 30 15 20 Bennis 25% 20 30 25 Peters 15% 20 35 30
The Re-imagineer’s Credo … or, Pity the Poor Brown* Technicolor Times demand … Technicolor Leaders and Boards who recruit … Technicolor People who are sent on … Technicolor Quests to execute … Technicolor (WOW!) Projects in partnership with … Technicolor Customers and … Technicolor Suppliers all of whom are in pursuit of … Technicolor Goals and Aspirations fit for … Technicolor Times. *WSC
“You can’t behave in a calm, rational manner. You’ve got to be out there on the lunatic fringe. ” — Jack Welch
The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it. Michelangelo
“the wildest chimera of a moonstruck mind” —The Federalist on Jefferson’s Louisiana Purchase
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