Two Case Studies GBR and MPB Simulations September

Two Case Studies: GBR and MPB Simulations September 12, 2013 1

Today’s Agenda �The continuing crisis �Simulation Overview �Great Bear Rainforest Case �Mountain Pine Beetle Case Mean annual precipitation September 12, 2013 2

Simulation GBR ECOSYSTEM-BASED MANAGEMENT � 1/3 of GBR is protected, 2/3 operate under EBM, one key aspect of which is old growth representation. In March 2009, this amount was set at 50%, with some exemptions, even though a consensus science group recommended the amount be 70%. We have been delegated the task of establishing the appropriate level of old growth forest protection in the region. September 12, 2013 CONVERSION TO AREA-BASED TENURE � The Minister of Forests, Land, and Natural Resource Operations has proposed, as a way to improve forest management and increase the midterm timber supply in regions affected by the mountain pine beetle epidemic, to convert a number of volumebased licences to area-based ones. The Minister has directed a multistakeholder body to forge a consensus on a new tenure system by the end of the calendar year. 3

Simulation - Objectives � develop practical skills -- teamwork, research, and communication -- necessary for constructive participation in policy development � develop a deep understanding of one crucial component of forest policy. � Have a lot of fun learning 4

Simulation – Organization GBR ECOSYSTEM BASED MANAGEMENT CONVERSION TO AREA-BASED TENURE � Greenpeace � Sierra Club of BC � Coast Forest Products � Association � Truck Loggers Association � Western Forest Products � United Steelworkers � Central and North Coast Communities � Nanwakolas Council � Coastal First Nations � � � � Wilderness Tourism Association of BC Forest. Ethics Cariboo-Chilcotin Conservation Society Council of Forest Industries Canfor Interior Logging Association United Steelworkers Carrier Sekani Tribal Council First Nations Forestry Council 5

Simulation –Process � meet in groups � required readings � consult "real world" versions of their groups � select a delegate (and an alternate) to speak and negotiate for them during the consultation. � evening, mock multistakeholder consultation attendance required for all participants : EBM GBR Monday November 18 Area-based tenure Tuesday, November 19 6

Simulation - Assessment � 10% for the group brief not to exceed 2000 words. This is a group project, which clearly and concisely presents the group’s initial position on how to revise the rules. It should contain references. The briefs are due November 14. � 10% for each student’s participation in the group. This grade will be based on the recommendations for grades that students provide for each other � 10% for the performance of each group in the consultation. 7

BC is 2 (or more) forest provinces September 12, 2013 8

Case Study I: the Great Bear Rainforest

Context The Place The Campaign The process The result EBM September 12, 2013 10

GBR: the place � Central and North Coast regions of BC � Globally significant ecosystem: largest areas of remaining intact coastal temperate rainforest in the world � Valuable timber resources � Remote communities � Unresolved aboriginal land claims September 12, 2013 11

GBR: The Campaign � 1995 - Enviros launch campaign to protect “Great Bear Rainforest” direct action market-based campaign targeting large purchasers September 12, 2013 12

GBR: Planning � 1996 – Land Resource Management Plan (LRMP) - Multistakeholder planning process �enviros boycott September 12, 2013 13

GBR: enviro-industry cooperation �Enviros’ market campaign forces industry into (secret) negotiations outside of formal process � 1998: Enviros and industry agree to ceasefire: industry agrees to suspend logging in intact areas engos agree to suspend market campaign and join LRMP process September 12, 2013 14

GBR: 2001 framework agreement � April 2001 Framework Agreement (BC Gov, FN, engos, companies) protected areas (20%) deferrals (11%) remainder covered by ecosystem-based management established independent “Coast Information Team” � 2004: Land Resource Management Plan recommendations � 2004 -2005 – Government to Government negotiations Crown government and First Nations September 12, 2013 15

GBR: 2006 Announcement September 12, 2013 16

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land base of 6. 4 million ha (16 million acres) September 12, 2013 18

GBR: Coast Information Team Definition of EBM �general definition “… an adaptive approach to managing human activities that seeks to ensure the coexistence of healthy, fully functioning ecosystems and human communities. Coast Information Team, EBM Framework September 12, 2013 19

Implementation issue: deciding specific EBM Rules �Definition of EBM uncertain �Parties commit to full implementation of EBM by March 2009 �Example of outstanding issue – old growth representation: Coast Information Team, enviros say 70% LRMPs, industry, government – and 2006 policy says 30% �March 2009: 50% with exemptions, new commitment to “full implementation” by 2014 September 12, 2013 20

Insights from GBR we’ll address �One of most important land use decisions �Extraordinary instance of collaborative decisionmaking �Power shift created by enviros’ use of international market pressures �Landmark co-jurisdictional arrangements with First Nations �Challenging issues in policy design �Revealing implementation challenges September 12, 2013 21

Environmental Change: Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic 22 September 15, 2009

MPB epidemic: 2 causes �fire suppression increase volume of vulnerable host organisms ▪ area covered by mature pine increased by a factor of 3 from 1910 -2000 �climate change – decline in cold weather In mid-winter, temperatures must consistently be below -35 -40 C for several straight days to have any effect In the early fall or late spring, sustained temperatures of -25 C can kill September 12, 2013 23

MPB epidemic – current and projected impact �Proportion of lodgepole pine of the interior timber harvesting land base: 50% � 51% of the total provincial mature merchantable pine volume killed by 2010 � 59% of pine will be killed by 2016 61% by 2021 September 12, 2013 24

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Policy Response • AAC Uplifts (about 14 million m 3 – 28% across interior) • Support for Beetle Action Coalitions • Silviculture Investments • Surveys, Reforestation, fertilization • Capitalizing on new opportunities (e. g. Bioenergy, carbon trading) • Research – Silviculture, wildfire, hydrology. • Inventory Investments September 12, 2013 27

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MPB Timber Supply Impact Summary (2011) � 2010 provincial AAC: 78. 6 million m 3 * Coast 17. 1 million m 3 Interior AAC: 61. 5 million m 3 ▪ 50. 6 million m 3 pre-uplift � 2030 provincial AAC: 57. 5 million m 3 40. 4 million m 3 interior �“fall-down” below pre-uplift: 10. 1 million m 3 20% in interior (higher in some areas) 14% provincially

Area-based tenure – recent origins �Explosion at mill in Burns Lake, BC – Babine Forest Products owned by Hampton Affiliates �Justifying rebuilding of mill thought to require greater assurance of access to timber �Memo leaked with a number of controversial proposals �Response: Special Committee on Timber Supply September 12, 2013 30

Special Committee on Timber Supply �Bipartisan committee of Member of Legislative Assembly �Hearings throughout province September 12, 2013 31

SCTS – government response September 12, 2013 32

Spring 2013 controversy �Clark government introduces Bill 8 that would amend Forest Act to allow the minister to accept application to convert FLs to TFLs �NDP, environmentalists express opposition �Proposal dropped, with promise to bring it back in when legislature is next in session (LOL) September 12, 2013 33

Next week – First Nations � Tuesday: Jason Forsyth, George Hoberg, and Laura Bird, “In Search of Certainty: A Decade of Shifting Strategies for Accommodating First Nations in Forest Policy, 2001 -11, ” pp. 299 -312 in Aboriginal Peoples and Forest Lands in Canada, edited by D. B. Tindall, Ronald L. Trosper and Pamela Perreault. , UBC Press 2013 – on sale separately in the department � Wednesday: TRC (next slide) � Thursday: Supreme Court of Canada, Haida Nation v. British Columbia (Minister of Forests), Supreme Court of Canada November 2004 September 12, 2013 34

September 18 � “F” (for Forestry) section of the Coliseum – come proudly wearing your UBC Forestry t-shirts. � Highlights of the program that include powerful presentations crucial for gaining understanding of the issues include: 9 am 11 am The Welcome and Opening Ceremonies Be the Change: Young People Healing the Past and Building the Future 1 pm Commissioners Sharing Panel 3 pm Expressions of Reconciliation, including UBC President, Professor Toope � Throughout the day, you may view exhibits and participate in other ways as well. � The full program is available at http: //irsi. aboriginal. ubc. ca/files/2013/09/TRCprogram. pdf September 12, 2013 35