TV or Not TV Eli Noam Columbia University

TV or Not TV Eli Noam Columbia University, Columbia Institute for Tele-Information FCC Washington, DC March 2016 1

Outline • Beyond Linear TV: Technology • Beyond the TV Industry: Cloud TV • Beyond TV Regulation: the Reemergence of Telecom-style Regulation

1940 s -70 s: 1 st Generation Television: Analog Over-the-air broadcasting http: //media-2. web. britannica. com/eb-media/31/71331 -004 -CDC 77097. jpg 3

1980 s, the 2 nd Generation of TV: Multichannel 4

3 rd Generation of TV: Digital TV

th 4 The Generation of Media: Online

Speed (Kbps) Trends 7

“Sarnoff Rate”: TV progresses at 4 -6% CAGR 8

6 5 4 40% CAGR 3 4% CAGR 2 1 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

* Outline • Beyond Linear TV: Technology • Beyond the TV Industry: Cloud TV • Beyond TV Regulation: the Re -emergence of Telecom-style Regulation

Server Farm: Google http: //www. blogcdn. com/www. engadget. com/media/2012/10/google-datacenter-tech 02. jpg 11

Amazon Server Farm (Oregon)

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Apple server farm http: //cultofmaccom. netdna-cdn. com/wpcontent/uploads/2011/04/apple_NC_datacenter_2. png 14

Facebook Server Farm (Sweden)

Microsoft Server Farm (Washington)

User 1 User 2 Cloud Provider § § § ser Generated Content Interoperating Coordinating Editing Marketing Financing Storage Applications

Why Will Clouds Dominate Media? • 1. Integrator • 2. Standards • 3. Convenience • 4. Law and Regulation • 5. Finance • 6. Marketing, Brands, Quality Control • 7. Privacy and Security • 8. Personalization 18

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Old and New Media - Average Concentration by Region 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 World EU North America Traditional Media Asia-Pacific Latin America 20 th Century Media Internet Media BRICS Middle East

Media Industry Market Concentration and Investment Asset Intensity 10000 Industry HHI CONCENTRATION 9000 8000 Search Engines 7000 6000 Wireline 5000 Multichannel ISP Wireless Broadcast TV Radio Video Channels Newspapers Magazines Film Books 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 0 0. 5 1 1. 5 2 Ratio of Avg Total Assets to Avg Total Revenue 2. 5 3

Cloud A Cloud B Cloud C

Self-Connection by Each User Cloud A Cloud B Cloud C

User Cloud Storage 3 Storage 2 24

Outline • Beyond Linear TV: Technology • Beyond the TV Industry: Cloud TV • Beyond TV Regulation: the Re -emergence of Telecom-style Regulation

• Power (monopoly, competition, vertical integration, ownership); • Access (net neutrality, free speech, pluralism, interconnection, compatibility, standardization, non-discrimination, affordability, universality, diversity); • Protection (children, privacy, security, copyrights, morality, reputation). • Growth (innovation, infrastructure, development, industrial policy, trade, national culture) 26

• • • • • Inclusion of the poor and the rural Inclusion of the digitally challenged Morality, violence, and child protection Privacy Network upgrade Ownership restrictions (ceilings, cross-ownership, vertical, national) Libel and copyright enforcement Restrictions on certain ads, and truth in advertising Device attachment Interconnection and interoperation Content Diversity. Source Diversity. National culture, for many countries Revenue generation. Innovation. Interoperability. Protection of competition. Protection from spam. Cyber-security. 27

Skinny Pipes, Individualized www. corbis. com 28

Fat Pipes, Shared http: //www. classic-cable. com/howworks. html 29

Which Regulatory Approach? 30

Factors Leading to Infrastructure as the Nexus for TV Regulation • • 1. Least mobile 2. Fewest participants 3. Market power 4. Existing sophisticated regulatory tools 5. Enforcer of content restrictions 6. Effective revenue source 7. Source of In-kind contributions 8. Customization of regulation

* Thank you! End of Talk noam@columbia. edu 32