Turbulence Challenges and Potential Solutions Turbulence Basics Drivers

Turbulence Challenges and Potential Solutions

Turbulence Basics • Drivers – Safety, Efficiency/Emissions, Capacity, & Customer Experience • Primary users- Meteorologists, Dispatchers, Crews, & Controllers • Solution Components – Forecast – Tactical/Now cast – Reporting • Challenges – FAA, Industry, & Resources

Flight Attendant Issues from an Industry Meeting • Insufficient/ incomplete briefing from the flight crew on weather en route e. g. turbulence • Inability to communicate effectively with flight deck about turbulence in the cabin • Obligation to continue with service or compliance duties when the seatbelt sign is illuminated • 300 lb. beverage cart that is a potential hazard • Passengers disregard instructions and move about the cabin 3

Variables & Resources • Forecast – Model Selection – Subjectivity / Risk Considerations • Dispatcher / Pilots – Tool selection – Subjectivity / Risk Considerations – Workload drivers – Pilots’ Chat Room

History Wright Brothers PIREPS Chat Room Gore Commission (1998) – Safety NASA FAA/NCAR Too Much Conservatism is ultimately ignored – Cry Wolf • Dispatch trial – Product vs. Workload • • •

What we are doing? • Replacing the Wright Brothers’ PIREPS • Using an objective sensor based turbulence metric called EDR (Eddy Dissipation Rate) – Atmospheric State • Using the numeric metric in a sophisticated forecast model (GTG) running on a super computer • Providing access to a web site with the reports superimposed on the forecast

Why are we doing it? • Safety • IF EVERYONE IS STRAPPED IN WITH CARTS STOWED, NO ONE GETS HURT. • KEY IS NOT TO CRY WOLF & F/A IGNORE WARNINGS • • Efficiency/Emissions Capacity = Delays Better customer experience Overall - The solutions for all 4 drivers might appear to conflict, but BETTER WEATHER KNOWLEDGE CAN DRIVE BETTER SOLUTIONS FOR ALL 4.

Components of Viewer • 3 Dimensional Forecast Model – Robust – Weighted average of other models – Updated hourly – Feedback loop • Objective aircraft reports - Validate model – Sensor based reports – Normalized for all aircraft – Sea state • Live web site using Wi. Fi with user tools

FAA Delta Demo • • Tablet using Wi. Fi for Turbulence Viewer 40+ Line Check Airmen One year duration Goals – Change behavior with better information – Measure benefits – Define next steps

Turbulence Viewer

Profile View

Report Generator

Preliminary Results • Very Positive - Want it now • What have you done for me today? – Auto generated flight Path – 3 D Visualization • Future Steps – Cabin vs. cockpit access to weather – Turbulence building block – Weather integration/simplification

Future Path • Industry Distractions – Airline daily priority – Mergers, Fuel, Economy – FAA – Research vs. Implementation • Political Will – FAA – Next. Gen Weather – Airlines – Validate Benefits • Alternatives for Data Location & Products – Airline, Government, Commercial or Mix – Costs burden – More data is key, but airline differences inhibit • Decision Time – Demo could be the trigger