TSS Tools to Support SIP Requirements and WOE

TSS Tools to Support SIP Requirements and WOE Analyses WRAP TSS Project Team Meeting Ft. Collins, CO March 29 -31, 2006

TSS Tools and SIP Requirements • TSS tools designed to: – Produce specific products required in SIPs – Provide for independent investigation of TSS data sets and support an overall understanding of visibility issues, while not necessarily fitting into the SIP outline • Review of product requirements: – IWG SIP outline (Fall 2005) – Tom Moore (TM) Technical Support System Background Document (March 2006) • Sample products for discussion

IWG SIP Outline (Fall 2005) • Items in red are/will be directly supported by the TSS • The IWG SIP Outline has been modified since Fall 2005, but these products are still required • IWG will have opportunity to comment at April 27 training

TSS Background Doc – Tom Moore

Regional Analysis Results • Regional overview of monitoring, modeling, and emissions data supports: – IWG: not specified, sec. 4. x – TM: bullets 5 and 8 • Regional overview of attribution results supports: – IWG: sec. 2. 3. 1 and 2. 3. 2 – TM: bullets 16 and 17 • Regional WOE analyses will support regional understanding of how emissions changes affect visibility changes

Class I Area Analysis Tools (1) • Metadata Browser provides site information/maps to support: – IWG: sec. 1. 2 – TM: not specified • Analysis Browser (regional and Class I area “static”) supports: – IWG: sec. 2. 6. 1 – TM: bullets 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17 – Also allows for review of model performance • Data Query Wizard supports: – User direct download of data types • Trends Tool supports: – IWG: sec. 2. 6. 1 (WOE analysis; e. g. , sulfate/nitrate trends) – TM: bullet 15

Class I Area Analysis Tools (2) • Composition Tool supports: – IWG: sec. 2. 2. 1, 2. 2. 2, 4. x (2. 4 – emissions by pollutant? ) – TM: bullets 1, 2, 3, 4 • Data Browser supports: – IWG: sec. 2. 2. 3, 4. x – TM: bullets 11, 12, 14, 15 • Offsite Resources support: – Additional contextual information, particularly in terms of GIS layers – Will be used in general understanding of visibility and emissions either regionally or locally

Monitoring Data Displays • Regional (map) displays of monitoring data summaries • Long-term trends – Regional – Class I areas (by species) • Mass/Extinction distributions (log-log scale? ) • Timelines for Class I areas – Extinction parameters – Other parameters • Aerosol vs. nephelometer comparisons (where available)

Baseline Extinction: 20% Worst Days

Baseline Nitrate: 20% Worst Days

Long-term Trends 8 -yr Trends 16 -yr Trends

Class I Area Trends, 20% Worst Days 16 -yr decrease in Bext 8 -yr decrease in SO 4

Distribution of Monitored Sulfate

Distribution of Measured Nitrate

Data Timelines

Chloride/Chlorine Mass Timelines Baseline2004: median UNC ~ 0. 04. 006; median MDL ~ 0. 07. 01 Baseline: median UNC ~ <0. 001; median MDL ~ 0. 001

Aerosol vs. Nephelometer Scattering

Modeling Data Displays • Many Monitoring data displays will also work for Modeling data • Model performance – 20% worst days and average (extinction) – Time series of model/monitoring data (extinction) • Model response (2002 to 2018) – 20% worst days and average (extinction) – Change in distribution (mass)

2002 Model Performance

Hells Canyon, OR/ID 2002 IMPROVE Data 2002 Model Results

2018 -2002 Model Change

Distribution of Modeled Nitrate

Distribution of Modeled OM

Emissions Data Displays • Summary charts – Total for WRAP region (bar chart/table) – WRAP region broken down by state (bar chart/table) – Individual states (bar charts/tables) • Summary maps – Gridded and county level emissions – Extent of map defined by user – Ability to sum emissions over selected areas

Total WRAP Region SO 2 and NOx Emissions (2002, 2018, and difference)

Anthropogenic and Natural NOx Emissions by State (Plan 02)

Regional NOx Emissions – All Sources

Attribution/Integrated Data Displays • Glide slopes – RHR required, by deciview – Glide slopes for individual species with estimated source emissions • Attribution results – Which source regions affect each Class I area? – Which Class I areas does each state impact? • Determination of important source emission regions

RHR Glide Path for Agua Tibia, CA

Worst Day Impacts and Sources Inter-Annual Baseline Variability (Mm -1) Baseline Measurement Uncertainty (Mm-1)

Class I Area Attribution by Source Region

Contributing Source Regions Determined by Back Trajectory Residence Times

Worst Day Impacts and Sources Inter-Annual Baseline Variability (Mm -1) Baseline Measurement Uncertainty (Mm-1)

Class I Area Attribution by Source Region

Contributing Source Regions Determined by Back Trajectory Residence Times

Class I Area Extinction Attributed to States Sulfate/nitrate extinction at Class I areas attributed to Oregon emissions Sulfate/nitrate extinction at Class I areas attributed to Arizona emissions