Trumponomics Stephen Moore Reaganomics vs Obamanomics Growth Gap

Trumponomics Stephen Moore

Reaganomics vs. Obamanomics Growth Gap – $3. 1 Trillion vs. Reagan and $1. 8 Trillion vs. Average

The Greatest Story Never Told

America’s Oil Boom Growth in Oil & Gas Employment Outpaces the Rest of the Economy 60% Oil and Gas 50% Total Nonfarm 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 -10% Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16

$0 Source: Energy Information Administration Nov-2017 Sep-2017 Jul-2017 May-2017 Mar-2017 Jan-2017 Nov-2016 Sep-2016 Jul-2016 May-2016 Mar-2016 Jan-2016 Nov-2015 Sep-2015 Jul-2015 May-2015 Mar-2015 Jan-2015 Nov-2014 Sep-2014 Jul-2014 May-2014 Mar-2014 Jan-2014 Nov-2013 Sep-2013 Jul-2013 May-2013 Mar-2013 Jan-2013 The Falling Cost of Energy $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20

America’s Soaring Gas and Oil Output Total Production Since 2000 Growth in Production Since 2006 4 10 8 Oil & Gas 7 6 5 4 3 Renewables other than 2 3 2. 5 Oil & Gas 2 1. 5 1 Renewables other than hydro 0. 5 1 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 0 20 Billions of barrels of oil equivalent 9 Billions of barrels of oil equivalent 3. 5 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 The growth in oil & gas production in the eight years exceeds by nearly two fold the total current production of energy from all renewable resources (excluding hydro dams). Most recent annual data through 2015. Source: Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review

National Ambient Air Quality Source: epa. gov Carbon Monoxide Lead (Right Axis) 0. 8 0. 6 0. 4 0. 2 0 0 Micrograms per Cubic Meter of Air 1 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Parts per Million (Index: 1980=1) 1. 2 Ozone Sulfur Dioxide 1 Nitrogen Dioxide

Don’t Forget to Turn the Lights On

Red States vs Blue States Absolute Domestic Migration 2006 - 2015 2, 000 1, 500, 000 1, 475, 425 1, 000 779, 441 500, 000 - Texas Florida New York California (500, 000) (1, 103, 301) (1, 500, 000) (1, 381, 449) (2, 000) Source: Rich States Poor States, Tenth Edition, American Legislative Exchange Council

During and After Recession Texas - 1. 1 Million Jobs Created Rest of the U. S. - 350 Thousand Jobs Lost

State Economic Outlook Ranking Rank Top Ten States Ran k Bottom Ten States 1. Utah 41. Oregon 2. Indiana 42. Maine 3. North Carolina 43. Hawaii 4. North Dakota 44. Illinois 5. Tennessee 45. Minnesota 6. Florida 46. Connecticut 7. Wyoming 47. California 8. Arizona 48. New Jersey 9 Texas 49. Vermont 10. Idaho 50. New York Source: ALEC, Rich States Poor States, 2017

80% 45% 70% 40% 35% 60% 30% 50% 25% 40% 20% 30% 15% 20% Top Marginal Rate 10% Top 1% Income Tax Share 19 70 19 72 19 74 19 76 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 20 12 20 14 0% Source: Tax. Foundation. org 10% 5% 0% Top 1% Income Tax Share Top Marginal Income Tax Rate Low Rates = More Revenue

“In short, it is a paradoxical truth that tax rates are too high today and tax revenues are too low and the soundest way to raise the revenues in the long run is to cut the rates now. ” - John F. Kennedy Address to the Economic Club of New York December 14, 1962

2018 U. S. Corporate Tax Rate Compared with the OECD Average 45 Combined Central and Subcentral Government Corporate Tax Rate Old U. S. Federal and State Corporate Tax Rate 40 35 New U. S. Federal and State Corporate Tax Rate 30 25 20 1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017 Note: The bars are the average tax rate in the rest of the world. Source: OECD Tax Policy Analysis

Old and New Corporate Rates Average Federal and State Corporate Rates 45. 00% 40. 10% 40. 00% 35. 00% 30. 00% 26. 10% 24. 20% 25. 00% 20. 00% 15. 00% 10. 00% 5. 00% 0. 00% OLD U. S. Rates NEW U. S. Rates OECD Average Rates

Taxmageddon Tax Hikes Under Obama 35% Death Tax 40% 15% Dividends 23. 8% Old Rate 15% Capital Gains 23. 8% 35% Income tax rate 0. 00% Obama Rate 43. 4% 10. 00% 20. 00% 30. 00% 40. 00% 50. 00%

Old Tax Rates vs Tax Cuts and Jobs Act 39. 60% Top Income Bracket 37. 00% 39. 60% Small Business Tax 29. 60% 35. 00% Corporate Tax 21. 00% 0% 5% 10% 15% Obama Era Source: Tax Foundation 20% TCJA 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Top 1 Percent Contributes As Much As Bottom 95 Percent Bottom 95% Share Top 1% Share 70% Percentage of Total 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 10% Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics on Income Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Rich Pay More Than Their Fair Share 2014 Income and Income Tax Shares 45. 0% 39. 5% 40. 0% 35. 0% 30. 0% 25. 0% 20. 6% 20. 0% 15. 0% 11. 3% 10. 0% 5. 0% 2. 8% 0. 0% Income Share Tax Foundation: Summary of the Latest Federal Income Tax Data, 2016 Update Top 1% Income Tax Share Bottom 50%

Growth in Manufacturing, Mining, Construction Since Election Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

6 5 4 Jan '15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '16 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Percentage Workforce Black Unemployment Rate 12 11 10 9 8 7 6. 8% Record Low Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Percent of Population Black Labor Participation Rate 64 63. 5 63 62. 5 62 61. 5 61 60. 5 60 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Latino Unemployment Rate 8 Population Percentage 7. 5 7 6. 5 6 5. 5 5 4. 5 Record Lows 4 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov '15 '16 '17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Ju l Au g Se p O ct N ov D Ja ec n '1 7 Fe b M ar Ap r M ay Ju n '1 5 D Ja ec n '1 6 Fe b M ar Ap r M ay Ju n ov N Confidence Value Consumer Confidence Index 105. 0 103. 0 101. 0 99. 0 97. 0 95. 0 93. 0 91. 0 89. 0 87. 0 85. 0 Source: University at Michigan

6 20 /1/1 16 20 /2/1 16 20 /3/1 16 20 /4/1 16 20 /5/1 16 20 /6/1 16 20 /7/1 16 20 /8/1 1 20 6/9 16 /1 20 /10 16 /1 20 /11 16 /1 /1 20 2/1 17 20 /1/1 17 20 /2/1 17 20 /3/1 17 20 /4/1 17 20 /5/1 17 20 /6/1 17 20 /7/1 17 20 /8/1 1 20 7/9 17 /1 20 /10 17 /1 20 /11 17 /1 /1 2/ 1 20 1 Index Value (1986 = 100) Small Business Optimism Source: NFIB 112 107 102 97 Post Election Effect 92 87 82

N ov ay -D b r Ju n Ju l Au g Se p O ct N ov ay M Ap ar M Fe Ja ec n '1 7 D n ov ct io ct le N O Ju n J Au ul gu st Se p r. E te Af ov '1 5 D Ja ec n '1 6 Fe b M ar Ap r M ay N Price Dow Jones Monthly Price Averages 25000 24000 23000 22000 21000 20000 19000 18000 17000 16000 15000

ov N ay -D Ju n Ju l Au g Se p O ct N ov Ja ec n '1 7 Fe b M ar Ap r M ay D n ov ct io ct le N O Ju n J Au ul gu st Se p r. E te Af ov '1 5 D Ja ec n '1 6 Fe b M ar Ap r M ay N Price NASDAQ Monthly Price Averages 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 Source: Wall Street Journal

1500 Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan '17 Dec Nov - Day After Election Nov Oct Sep August Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan '16 Dec Nov '15 Price S&P 500 Monthly Price Averages 3000 2750 2500 2250 2000 1750 Source: Wall Street Journal

Inflation Rate 1947 -2017

10 -Year Treasury Note Yield February 1962 to January 2018

Real Interest Rate on 10 -year U. S Bonds January 2003 to December 2017

Education and Medical Prices Increase While Import Prices Drop Inflation by Sector Nov 2000 to Nov 2017 150% 123% 100% 81% 67% 42% 50% 41% -3% -45% -58% 0% u Ed on i t ca l ica d Me n Re t s All m ite o Fo d rs a C En y g r e Ap rel a p s* re r u t e ut rni p u m F Co -50% -100% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics *Data from 2005