TROY SCHOOL DISTRICT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS February 7 2017

TROY SCHOOL DISTRICT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS February 7, 2017 Information provided by: Frederick R. Ignatovich, Ph. D. , STANFRED Consultants

Enrollment History* 2008/09 12, 165 2009/10 12, 069 2010/11 12, 056 2011/12 12, 328 2012/13 12, 391 2013/14 12, 573 2014/15 12, 556 2015/16 12, 710 2016/17 12, 868 *Headcount 2

Troy School District Birth to Kindergarten Ratios Projecting Most Likely SCHOOL YEAR B - KDG RATIO % 99 -00 4. 58 00 -01 4. 46 01 -02 4. 42 02 -03 4. 58 03 -04 4. 67 04 -05 4. 61 05 -06 4. 65 06 -07 4. 94 07 -08 5. 45 08 -09 5. 29 09 -10 5. 22 10 -11 5. 63 11 -12 5. 67 12 -13 5. 94 13 -14 6. 18 14 -15 5. 82 15 -16 6. 39 16 -17 6. 59 17 -18 6. 18 3

ENROLLMENTS AND PROJECTIONS FOR TROY SCHOOL DISTRICT K-12 Head Count Excluding 276 Students: ECP (Early Childhood Program - 77) SCSE (Self Contained Special Education - 137) GROW (Post Secondary Special Education - 62) Projections assume 60 SOC Kdg. & 10 SOC 1 st grade (Sibling Only) 4

Historical and Program Information Troy School District § Enrollment of SOC students attending Troy School District: o Fall 2010/11 – 416 o Fall 2011/12 – 590 o Fall 2012/13 – 700 o Fall 2013/14 – 821 o Fall 2014/15 – 907 o Fall 2015/16 – 990 o Fall 2016/17 - 1120 5

Calculation of Projected Future Enrollment Future enrollments would be expected to fall between the MOST LIKELY and LOW projections. This is calculated by adding MOST LIKELY plus the LOW divided by two(2). 6

Projected Future Enrollment School Year Grade Levels Projected Enrollment ** Not including SCSE, ECP, GROW 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 K-5 5458 6 -8 2987 9 - 12 4307 K-5 5370 6 -8 3074 9 - 12 4307 K-5 5320 6 -8 3074 9 - 12 4387 K-5 5369 6 -8 2984 9 - 12 4446 K-5 5364 6 -8 2916 Total K– 12 ** Not including SCSE, ECP, GROW Total K-12 Projected Enrollment* 12, 752 12, 992 12, 751 12, 991 12, 781 13, 021 12, 799 13, 039 12, 765 13, 005 9 - 12 4485 *Includes: Self-Contained Special Ed (SCSE), Early Childhood Program (ECP), GROW – approx. 240 students in total. **Does not include: SCSE (Self-Contained Special Ed), ECP (Early Childhood Program), GROW (240 students). 7

Current Enrollment Comparison* Grades K -12 Projected Enrollment 2013/14 Actual Enrollment 2013/14 Projected Enrollment 2014/15 Actual Enrollment 2014/15 Projected Enrollment 2015/16 Actual Enrollment 2015/16 Projected Enrollment 2016/17 Actual Enrollment 2016/17 12, 494 12, 573 12, 653 12, 556 12, 612 12, 710 12, 868 *Includes all : Self-Contained Special Ed (SCSE), Early Childhood Program (ECP), GROW = 276 students. 8

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