Trends of air pollutants concentration in ambient air

Trends of air pollutants concentration in ambient air of Belarus S. Kakareka, J. Kokosh Institute for Nature Management, Minsk, Belarus 16 th Task Force on Measurement and Modelling Meeting Cracow, Poland, 5 -8 May 2015

Included into presentation: • Monitoring system in Belarus • Trends of pollutants deposition and concentration in Belarus by EMEP modelling • Trends of pollutants deposition and concentration in Belarus by national monitoring system data (background and urban) • Trends of pollutants concentration by local monitoring • Trends of air emissions Data: • EMEP modelling data • State monitoring program data • Institution data

State monitoring system and measurement sites in Belarus • 1 air monitoring background site (Berezinsky reserve); • 1 EMEP monitoring site (Vysokoje – precipitates only - data not discussed in presentation); • 66 urban monitoring sites in 20 cities (discrete - manual); • 14 urban monitoring sites (continuous - automatic) • Main (TSP, SO 2, NO, CO) and specific (formaldehyde, phenol, NH 3, Pb, Cd, Ba. P etc. are monitored manually, PM 10, NO 2, SO 2, benzene etc. – automatically; • At 19 sites precipitates are monitored monthly (main ions, heavy metals), and at 2 sites – daily (so-called ‘transboundary’ – in Braslav and Mstislavl).

Levels and trends of atmospheric deposition and concentrations (EMEP modelling) Trends of oxidized sulfur and nitrogen deposition Dramatic changes of sulfur deposition in 20 years by modelling results: reduction of total sulfur deposition from 1980 comprises 79% (from 521 thous. t до 109 thous. t), main reduction occurred in 1990 -2000. Greatest levels of sulfur reduction – in west and north parts of country, (78 -82%); lowest – in east and south parts (72 -78%). Reduction of total oxidized nitrogen deposition from 1980 comprises 38% (from 110 thous. t до 68 thous. t ), maximum level occurred in 1990 (133 thous. t). Greatest levels of reduction – in west and central parts of country (40 -45%); lowest – in east and south parts (25 -35%).

SO 2 и NO 2 air concentrations in Belarus, % reduction from 1980 to 2009 SO 2 Reduction of modelled SO 2 concentrations from 1980 to 2009 amounted 85 -90%, in some central and eastern regions – 95% and more. NO 2 Reduction of modelled NO 2 concentrations from 1980 to 2009 amounted 5 -15%, in eastern and north-eastern parts background concentrations have grown.

Trend of acidifying depositions and acidification potential (Berezinsky reserve background site) Acidification 2, 000 1, 800 Reduction since 1980 and 1990 to 2013: Acidifying compounds deposition : 60% and 63% (slope: -1. 8 and -2. 7%/yr) Acidifying potential: 83% and 89% (slope: -2. 5 and -3. 9%/yr). 1, 600 ecv/ha/year 1, 400 1, 200 1, 000 800 600 400 200 0 1981 1985 1989 1993 Acidification potential S and N deposition 1997 2001 2005 2009 Base cathions deposition 2013 p. H

Trend of SO 2 and NO 2 in background ambient air (Berezinsky reserve) SO 2 NO 2 Reduction of air concentrations from 1980 to 2009: SO 2: - 88% (slope: -3. 0 %/year) NO 2 (from 1984) : 35% (slope: -1. 2%/ year)

Precipitates chemical composition local monitoring site (Minsk) Trends of oxidized sulfur in atmospheric precipitates 1 Trends of oxidized nitrogen in atmospheric precipitates Stable trend of oxidized sulfur and nitrogen deposition reduction in Minsk: 30% reduction to 2014 since 2004 for S, 20% - for N+.

Averaged trends of air pollutants in urban air (1991 -2012) For trends description raws were splitted into 2 parts (1991 -2000 and 2001 -2012) with calculation of mean for this parts and their relation. Slope of reduction (%/year) was also calculated. SO 2 Mean concentration of SO 2 in urban air reduced from 8. 6 to 1. 0 µg/m 3 (88%, slope -4%/year). Averaged by 2 periods concentrations amounted 6. 3 and 1. 4 µg/m 3, relation – 0. 22. Content of SO 2 in the air reduced in all cities except one (Gomel). NO 2 Mean concentration of NO 2 in urban air reduced from 40. 1 to 32. 7 µg/m 3 (18%, slope -0. 8%/year). Averaged by 2 periods concentrations amounted 31. 6 and 31. 3 µg/m 3, relation – 0. 99. Average concentration reduced in 6 cities and increased in 8 cities. Greatest reduction – in Orsha (1. 6 times), Mozyr (1. 5 times), Mogylev (1. 4 times). Largest growth – in Soligorsk – (4. 4 times).

Trends of air pollutants concentrations in urban air (1991 -2012) 10 9 SO 2 µg/m 3 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1991 45 40 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 NO 2 µg/m 3 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

TSP Average concentration of TSP in urban air reduced from 132. 8 to 40. 4 µg/m 3 (68%, slope -3. 2%/year). Averaged by 2 periods concentrations amounted 92. 8 and 47. 0 µg/m 3, relation – 0. 48. Dust concentrations reduced in all cities. Greatest reduction – in Orsha (8. 3 times), Soligorsk (6. 7 times), Minsk (4. 2 times). 140 120 µg/m 3 100 80 60 40 20 0 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

Trends of sulfur and nitrogen compounds air emissions thous. t SOx NOx 300 600 250 500 250 200 NH 3 150 100 50 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 - reduction of SO 2 emission from 637 thous. t in 1990 to 68 thous. t in 2010 (89%, slope -4. 4%/year) corresponds with air concentrations reduction in background and urban environment - reduction of NOx emission from 285 thous. t to 171 thous. t in 2010 (40%, slope -2%/year) corresponds with air concentrations reduction in background environment 2010 2008 thous. t 2006 0 2004 0 2002 50 2000 1998 100 1996 200 1994 150 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 300 1992 200 400 1990 700

Heavy metals emission trends 900 Pb 800 700 600 500 t 400 300 200 100 0 1994 1998 8 7 6 5 t 4 3 2 1 0 2002 2006 2010 Cd 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 - reduction of Pb emission from 794 t in 1990 to 70 t in 2010 (91%, slope -4. 5%/year) and of Cd emission from 7. 6 t in 1990 to 3. 2 t in 2010 (55%, slope -2. 7%/year) corresponds with air concentrations reduction in background environment.

Conclusions – oxidized sulfur shows most prominent trends: in background air, in urban air and precipitates, resulted in decreasing of acidification potential; strongly confirmed by EMEP modelling; – more complicated situation with nitrogen: - not evident trend of NO 2 concentration in urban air and not linear – in background air; - proved but not stable trend of oxidized nitrogen deposition; wet - fluctuations of reduced nitrogen depositions; – distinctive trend to PM concentrations reduction in urban air, not so large – in background; - dramatic decreasing trend of Pb in background air and not so – of Cd. Further work: – statistical routines application for trends detection – regional correlations – other pollutants.

Pb modeling Case Study: some comments Contributors: MSC-East, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of Belarus, Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus (INM) Description of contribution of INM: 10 x 10 EMEP gridded lead emissions dataset incl. total and in GNFR sectors split Base year: 2012 -2013 Input data: production statistics, emission statistics and permits Methodology: reported emissions for point sources, calculated emissions for area sources Comments: very high level of spatial heterogeneity of emission levels due to allocation of most of emission to point sources: point sources (>10 kg =56) provide more than 90% of total emissions at a less than 5% of territory: Emission > 1000 kg/cell – at 1 cell, 100 -1000 kg – 10 cells, 10 -100 kg – 12 cells, 1 -10 kg – 28 cells, < 1 kg – 2202 cells.

Lead emission by 10 x 10 EMEP grid

Verification of emission data Methodology: -in-depth analysis of technologies and abatement for key sources in historical context; limited number of key source categories of lead in Belarus (namely cement and steel production, lead crystal glass) allows such analysis - verification of emission factors used vs reported Conclusions: - additional check of emission data prepared for case study does not reveal essential drawbacks (best available estimates) -lead emission from key sources are expected to decrease last 10 -15 years due to among other reasons reduction of PM emission

Trends of PM emission from cement production - lead emission factors used now for key sources (cement, steel) are close to European - current emission guidance do not provide firm base for technology-induced trends of emission estimates.

Pb and PM in air (monitoring data) Methodology and data: comparison of national monitoring data, EMEP, AIRBASE for Pb and PM Comments: - yearly mean lead concentrations in urban air varies from 7. 8 (Mogylev) to 74. 7 ng/m 3 (Zhlobin) with total mean 28. 7 ng/m 3 – large differences which can hardly been correlated with lead emission level (except Zhlobin) and spatial location (accounting predominant transboundary fluxes); - yearly mean lead concentration in background ambient air varies from 2. 1 to 2. 7 ng/m 3 – no large variations - yearly mean urban air lead content difference – mainly 2 -3 times; the same difference is for PM; -no principal differences in annual mean of lead and PM in urban and background air of Belarus and Europe;

Air concentrations and emissions of lead : comparative analysis Comparison of urban air concentrations and emission levels shows that the city with highest lead emissions (Zhlobin) is characterized by highest lead air concentrations. For other cities there are no evident correlation between lead emission and concentrations. Thus in Borysov where large point source (crystal glass plant) is located emission trend for 2011 -2013 is descending, while lead concentrations is ascending. So the impact of a set of local factors on the content of lead in the air can be assumed.

Modelling results Comments: from results available it can be seen that: - level of lead emission in Belarus too low to impact significantly spatial structure of background air concentrations except of local ‘hot spots’ - shift to finer resolution allows to reveal ‘hot spots’ of air pollution connected with local sources and shows more disperse and heterogenic spatial structure of air concentrations - background lead concentrations in Belarus are controlled by transboundary impact so modelled background concentrations are dependent mainly on the quality of results of lead emission inventory abroad - in overall case study is useful providing platform for in-depth analysis of spatial patterns of emissions, measured and modelled air concentrations.

Proposals (for future Case Studies) - to check parametrization of emission input to model: assess to as possible impact onto modelling results in line with bulk emission of inter-annual variations of emission, distribution by height of emission, by particle bound size, concentration in emission, initial velocity etc. - in-depth analysis of modeling results vs local data on Pb content in different media In perspective: - do local modeling for verification of lead emission estimates - special guidance on emission trends detection - special event on emission vs measured/modelled trends.

Acknowledgements We would like to stress our gratitude to the State Institution ’Republican Center for Radiation Control and Environmental Monitoring’ for providing data on ambient air concentrations at National System of Environmental Monitoring sites.

Thank you for your attention!