Travel Demand Modeling Tom V Mathew Indian Institute

Travel Demand Modeling Tom V. Mathew Indian Institute of Technology Bombay 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling

Introduction • Travel Demand Modeling – Explain the current travel behavior • How many trips • From where to where • On what mode • On what route – Project the future travel 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 2

Introduction • Travel Demand Modeling – Four stage modeling • How many trips: Trip Generation • From where to where: Trip Distribution • On what mode: Model Split • On what route: Trip Assignment – Data need • Primary • Secondary 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 3

Introduction • Travel Demand Modeling Input: Base year data Input: HORIZON YEAR data Trip generation Trip distribution Model split Trip assignment Output: Base Year Link Flows Output: Horizon Link Flows 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 4

Travel Demand Modeling STUDY AREA 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 5

Travel Demand Modeling STUDY AREA BASE YEAR ROAD NETWORK 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 6

Travel Demand Modeling Scenarios A new road ? How many will travel ? Which is the best alignment ? 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 7

Travel Demand Modeling Scenarios A new policy: Convert all diesel vehicle to CNG ? How much will be the reduction in emission ? A new policy: Restrict CBD roads for walk/bicycle only ? How much will be the reduction in emission/ increase in travel time for private vehicle ? A new policy: Reduce bus fare ? How many will shift to bus? 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 8

Travel Demand Modeling TRIP GENERATION 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling

TDM: Trip Generation • Objective – How many trips generated • What are the influencing factors – Two types of generation • Trip production – residential • Trip attractions – commercial 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 10

TDM: Trip Generation Zoning 1 6 7 5 2 3 4 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 11

TDM: Trip Generation • How to explain trip production ? • On a household level it depend on – Household size – Income – No of adults – Education level – No of school going children – No of license holder 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 12

TDM: Trip Generation – How many trips Tp are produced in a zone? • Zone 1 – Population 1000 (senses) – Household size 2. 5 – No. of households 400 (1000/2. 5) – Trips per household 1. 4 – Trip production 560 (1. 4*400) 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling (by survey) 13

TDM: Trip Generation T=560 1 T=340 6 T=560 7 T=120 5 2 T=280 T=860 3 T=480 4 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 14

TDM: Trip Generation • Modeling trip generation – Observed phenomenon • Trips generated T – Explanatory factors • Household size h • Household area a • Vehicles owned v • Population P – Model • T = F (h, a, v, P) 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 15

TDM: Trip Generation Zone Trips H/h size H/h area Vh. Own Popu. T h a v P 1 560 2. 5 600 1. 2 1000 2 340 2. 4 800 1. 4 800 3 360 1. 8 1200 1. 3 700 4 480 2. 1 900 2. 1 600 5 280 1. 7 1100 1. 8 1200 6 560 3. 1 900 1. 5 880 7 120 1. 1 450 2. 9 100 T = 2. 8 P/h x 0. 833 a x 1. 23 v 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 16

TDM: Trip Generation – How many trips Ta are attracted to a zone? • Zone 7 – Office space(o) 120 (by survey) – Factory space (f) 80 (by survey) – Educational seats (e) 80 (by survey) – Shopping area (s) 24 (by survey) – Trip attracted (Ta) 560 (by survey) 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 17

TDM: Trip Generation Zone Trips Off. Sp. Fac. Sp. Edu. St Sh. Ar Ta o f e s 1 280 120 50 100 2 230 720 40 120 3 160 125 100 70 170 4 440 120 480 45 160 5 650 300 110 80 480 6 120 100 15 180 7 820 800 150 90 400 Tp = 1. 18 o + 0. 43 f + 1. 1 e + 2. 1 s 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 18

TDM: Trip Generation Tp=560 1 6 Ta=480 Ta=120 Tp=120 7 Tp=340 Tp=280 Ta=1220 5 2 Ta=630 20080812 Ta=880 Tp=860 3 T=480 Ta=160 4 Ta=540 Travel Demand Modeling 19

Travel Demand Modeling TRIP DISTRIBUTION 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling

TDM: Trip Distribution • Objective – Where the trips are going ? – What influence the destination ? • Travel distance, time, … – Output • Origin – Destination Matrix 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 21

TDM: Trip Distribution Tp=560 1 6 7 5 2 3 4 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 22

TDM: Trip Distribution Tp=560 Ta=480 1 6 7 5 2 3 4 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 23

TDM: Trip Distribution Tp=560 Ta=480 1 6 7 Tp=280 5 2 Ta=880 3 4 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 24

TDM: Trip Distribution Tp=560 Ta=480 1 6 T 15 7 Tp=280 5 2 Ta=880 3 4 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 25

TDM: Trip Distribution Tp=560 Ta=480 1 6 T 15 7 Ta=880 T 51 2 5 Tp=280 3 4 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 26

TDM: Trip Distribution: Gravity Model Tp=1000 • Will T 12 = T 13 ? – Trips between two T 12 zone is proportional to the production and Ta=500 attraction and inversely 2 proportional to the travel cost 1 T 13 Ta=500 3 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 27

TDM: Trip Distribution: Gravity Model Tp=1000 • What is c 12 – Deterrence value – Or cost function – Travel cost between two zones • Cost – – – 1 T 12 Ta=500 2 c 13 Ta=500 Distance Time Fare Waiting Parking etc 20080812 T 13 c 12 3 Travel Demand Modeling 28

TDM: Trip Distribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Tot 1 560 2 340 3 58 360 4 480 5 280 6 560 7 120 To Attraction Z 480 630 160 540 880 1220 Productions 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 29

TDM: Trip Distribution Z 1 7 Tot 1 199 47 15 25 47 9 218 560 2 30 126 23 27 35 3 96 340 3 11 26 83 58 56 4 122 360 4 6 11 20 243 109 7 84 480 5 3 4 4 26 200 6 37 280 6 18 11 9 50 181 88 203 560 7 13 5 6 11 22 3 60 120 To 280 230 160 440 650 120 20080812 2 3 4 5 Travel Demand Modeling 6 820 2700 30

Travel Demand Modeling Modal Split 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling

TDM: Modal Split • Objective – What modes these trips are taking ? – What influence the choice of mode ? • Travel distance, time, comfort, • Generalized cost – Output • Mode wise Origin – Destination Matrix 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 32

TDM: Modal Split 199 47 15 25 47 9 218 30 126 23 27 35 3 11 58 56 4 122 6 Car 119 28 26 83 11 20 243 109 96 7 84 6 37 3 4 4 26 200 18 11 9 50 181 88 203 2280 319 606 12 50 9 10 19 4 87 11 14 1 38 33 23 22 2 49 4 8 97 44 3 34 1 2 2 10 80 2 15 7 4 4 20 72 35 81 5 2 2 4 9 1 24 9 15 18 76 14 16 28 13 5 5131 6 21 2 58 7 16 50 35 34 2 73 4 10 4 7 12 146 65 4 50 2 2 16 120 4 22 11 7 5 30 109 53 122 8 3 4 20080812 7 13 2 36 11 Bus Travel Demand Modeling 33

TDM: Modal Split CAR OD Matrix 20080812 Z 1 2 1 119 28 2 18 3 3 5 9 15 28 5 131 76 14 16 21 2 58 7 16 50 35 34 2 73 4 4 7 12 146 65 4 50 5 2 2 2 16 120 4 22 6 11 7 5 30 109 53 122 7 8 3 4 2 36 7 13 Travel Demand Modeling 6 7 4 34

Travel Demand Modeling Trip Assignment 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling

TDM: Trip Assignment • Objective – What path or route will a person choose ? – What influences the choice of route ? • Wardrops’ User Equilibrium – A user will take a path that minimizes his travel cost – Output • Link counts 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 36

TDM: Model Split 20080812 Z 1 2 1 119 28 2 18 3 3 5 9 15 28 5 131 76 14 16 21 2 58 7 16 50 35 34 2 73 4 4 7 12 146 65 4 50 5 2 2 2 16 120 4 22 6 11 7 5 30 109 53 122 7 8 3 4 2 36 7 13 Travel Demand Modeling 6 7 4 37

TDM: Trip Assignment connectors 1 6 2 7 5 3 4 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 38

TDM: Trip Assignment T 12 car=28 1 6 28 28 2 7 5 3 4 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 39

TDM: Model Split 20080812 Z 1 2 1 119 28 2 18 3 3 5 9 15 28 5 131 76 14 16 21 2 58 7 16 50 35 34 2 73 4 4 7 12 146 65 4 50 5 2 2 2 16 120 4 22 6 11 7 5 30 109 53 122 7 8 3 4 2 36 7 13 Travel Demand Modeling 6 7 4 40

TDM: Trip Assignment T 13 car=9 1 6 28 9 2 7 5 9 3 4 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 41

TDM: Trip Assignment T 14 car=15 1 28 9 6 15 15 2 7 9 5 15 3 4 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 42

TDM: Trip Assignment T 15 car=28 14 6 14 2 14 7 5 28 14 14 3 4 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 43

TDM: Trip Assignment T 15 car=28 1 28 9 28 14 6 15 15 14 2 14 7 9 5 15 28 14 14 3 4 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 44

TDM: Trip Assignment Link flows 52 28 14 38 14 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 45

TDM: Trip Assignment Z Ta o f e s 1 280 120 50 100 2 230 720 40 120 3 160 125 100 70 170 4 440 120 480 45 160 5 650 300 110 80 480 6 120 100 15 180 7 820 800 150 90 400 z T h a v P 1 560 2. 5 600 1. 2 1000 2 340 2. 4 800 1. 4 800 3 360 1. 8 1200 1. 3 700 4 480 2. 1 900 2. 1 600 5 280 1. 7 1100 1. 8 1200 6 560 3. 1 900 1. 5 880 7 120 1. 1 450 2. 9 100 20080812 52 28 14 38 14 Link flows VERIFIABLE Travel Demand Modeling 46

Travel Demand Modeling Projection to Horizon Year 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling

TDM: Horizon Year ? Z Ta o f e s 1 2 3 ? ? ? ? ? ? 4 ? ? ? 5 6 ? ? ? 7 z T h a v P ? ? ? 1 ? ? ? 2 3 ? ? ? 4 5 Link flows VERIFIABLE 6 7 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 48

Travel Demand Modeling Scenarios A new road ? Convert all diesel vehicle to CNG ? Restrict CBD roads for walk/bicycle only ? A new policy: Reduce bus fare ? 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 49

Conclusion • Travel Demand Modeling Input: Base year data Input: HORIZON YEAR data Trip generation Trip distribution Model split Trip assignment Output: Base Year Link Flows Output: Horizon Link Flows 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 50

Conclusion • Activity based modeling – Current trend • Application in disaster management – Disaster preparedness – Emergency operations 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 51

Conclusion Preparedness Reliable Network design 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 52

Conclusion Relief work Alternate routing xx 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling 53

Thank You tomvmathew@gmail. com 20080812 Travel Demand Modeling