Transportation Transportation sector energy consumption Transportation sector consumption

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Transportation

Transportation

Transportation sector energy consumption Transportation sector consumption by mode AEO 2021 Reference case Transportation

Transportation sector energy consumption Transportation sector consumption by mode AEO 2021 Reference case Transportation sector consumption by fuel AEO 2021 Reference case quadrillion British thermal units 35 2020 history projections 35 30 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010 2020 history projections 2020 2030 2040 light-duty vehicles medium- and heavy-duty vehicles air commercial light trucks rail marine other 2050 25 20 motor gasoline distillate fuel oil jet fuel electricity other 15 10 5 0 2010 2020 Source: U. S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO 2021) 2030 2040 2050 www. eia. gov/aeo 2

Transportation sector minor petroleum and alternative fuels consumption Transportation sector consumption of minor petroleum

Transportation sector minor petroleum and alternative fuels consumption Transportation sector consumption of minor petroleum and alternative fuels AEO 2021 Reference case quadrillion British thermal units 2, 5 2020 history projections other 2, 0 compressed and liquid natural gas 1, 5 electricity residual fuel oil 1, 0 other petroleum 0, 5 0, 0 2010 pipeline fuel natural gas 2020 2030 2040 Source: U. S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO 2021) 2050 www. eia. gov/aeo 3

Transportation sector delivered electricity and natural gas AEO 2021 Reference case Delivered compressed and

Transportation sector delivered electricity and natural gas AEO 2021 Reference case Delivered compressed and liquefied natural gas by mode AEO 2021 Reference case quadrillion British thermal units 0, 6 0, 4 Thousands Delivered electricity by mode other passenger rail light-duty vehicles 0, 2 0, 0 2020 0, 6 other buses medium- and heavy-duty vehicles 0, 4 marine freight rail 0, 2 2030 2040 2050 0, 0 2020 Source: U. S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO 2021) 2030 2040 2050 www. eia. gov/aeo 4

Passenger and freight travel by mode Vehicle travel AEO 2021 Reference case Passenger travel

Passenger and freight travel by mode Vehicle travel AEO 2021 Reference case Passenger travel AEO 2021 Reference case trillion vehicle-miles trillion revenue passenger-miles 4, 0 3, 5 2020 4, 0 projections 3, 5 Rail and domestic shipping AEO 2021 Reference case trillion ton-miles traveled 2020 4, 0 projections 3, 5 3, 0 2, 5 2, 0 1, 5 3, 0 2, 5 1, 0 light-duty vehicles heavy-duty trucks 0, 5 0, 0 2010 1, 0 0, 5 2030 2050 0, 0 2010 air bus passenger rail 2030 2050 Source: U. S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO 2021) 2020 projections freight rail 1, 0 0, 5 0, 0 2010 domestic marine 2030 2050 www. eia. gov/aeo 5

Energy intensity by transportation mode Passenger travel energy intensity by mode AEO 2021 Reference

Energy intensity by transportation mode Passenger travel energy intensity by mode AEO 2021 Reference case Freight travel energy intensity by mode AEO 2021 Reference case British thermal units per passenger-mile British thermal units per ton-mile 4 500 4 000 2020 history projections 9 000 8 000 3 500 7 000 3 000 6 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 light-duty vehicle 5 000 aircraft passenger rail 4 000 Class 3 truck Classes 4– 6 truck 3 000 Classes 7– 8 truck 2 000 bus freight rail domestic marine 1 000 500 0 2020 history projections 0 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 Source: U. S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO 2021) 2030 2040 2050 www. eia. gov/aeo 6

Indexed travel indicators and energy use by mode Indexed light-duty vehicle travel and energy

Indexed travel indicators and energy use by mode Indexed light-duty vehicle travel and energy use AEO 2021 Reference case 2019 = 1. 0 2020 2, 0 history Indexed freight and commercial truck travel and energy use AEO 2021 Reference case 2019 = 1. 0 2020 2, 0 history projections Indexed aircraft travel and energy use AEO 2021 Reference case 2019 = 1. 0 history projections 1, 5 1, 0 energy efficiency travel demand energy consumption 0, 5 0, 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0, 5 0, 0 2010 travel demand energy efficiency energy consumption 2020 2, 0 2030 2040 2050 projections travel demand energy efficiency energy consumption 0, 5 0, 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Note: Indexed freight and commercial truck energy efficiency is weighted by each vehicle type’s relative share of energy consumption. Source: U. S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO 2021) www. eia. gov/aeo 7

New light-duty vehicle sales shares Light-duty vehicle sales shares Car sales shares by size

New light-duty vehicle sales shares Light-duty vehicle sales shares Car sales shares by size class Light truck sales shares by size class AEO 2021 Reference case 2020 70% crossover utility projections midsize 60% AEO 2021 Reference case 2020 70% 60% projections truck 50% compact large subcompact other 50% car 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: U. S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO 2021) crossover utility large pickup utility vans small pickup 50% 0% 2020 2030 2040 2050 www. eia. gov/aeo 8

Light-duty vehicle sales by technology/fuel type Light-duty vehicle sales by technology/fuel AEO 2021 Reference

Light-duty vehicle sales by technology/fuel type Light-duty vehicle sales by technology/fuel AEO 2021 Reference case millions of vehicles 18 16 New vehicle sales of battery-powered vehicles AEO 2021 Reference case millions of vehicles 2020 history projections 3 2020 history projections other electric hybrid plug-in electric 2 hybrid battery electric diesel flex fuel gasoline 1 14 12 10 8 6 total battery electric including 100 -, 200 -, 300 -mile electric vehicles electric hybrid 300 -mile electric 4 2 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 2010 2020 2030 Source: U. S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO 2021) 2040 200 -mile electric plug-in electric hybrid 100 -mile electric 2050 www. eia. gov/aeo 9

On-road vehicle fuel economy Heavy-duty fuel economy AEO 2021 Reference case Light-duty fuel economy

On-road vehicle fuel economy Heavy-duty fuel economy AEO 2021 Reference case Light-duty fuel economy by vehicle type AEO 2021 Reference case miles per gallon 45 40 2020 history projections 35 18 car 16 combined 14 2020 history projections Classes 4– 6 12 30 light truck 25 10 20 8 15 6 10 4 5 2 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Classes 2 b– 3 Classes 7– 8 2020 Source: U. S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO 2021) 2030 2040 2050 www. eia. gov/aeo 10

Light-duty vehicle fuel economy and per capita travel Light-duty vehicle miles traveled per licensed

Light-duty vehicle fuel economy and per capita travel Light-duty vehicle miles traveled per licensed driver AEO 2021 Reference case Light-duty vehicle average fuel economy AEO 2021 Reference case thousand miles per gallon 40 2020 history projections new light-duty vehicles 15 2020 history projections 30 total light-duty vehicle stock 10 20 5 10 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 2010 2020 Source: U. S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO 2021) 2030 2040 2050 www. eia. gov/aeo 11

Air travel energy use by mode Energy use by air mode AEO 2021 Reference

Air travel energy use by mode Energy use by air mode AEO 2021 Reference case quadrillion British thermal units 5 2020 history projections cargo 4 3 domestic flights 2 international flights 1 0 2010 general aviation 2020 2030 2040 Source: U. S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO 2021) 2050 www. eia. gov/aeo 12

Passenger aircraft sales and jet fuel efficiency U. S. passenger jet sales by body

Passenger aircraft sales and jet fuel efficiency U. S. passenger jet sales by body type AEO 2021 Reference case U. S. passenger jet fuel efficiency index AEO 2021 Reference case individual aircraft sold 500 2019 = 1. 0 2020 history 2, 0 2020 history projections 400 revenue passenger-miles projections 1, 5 300 narrow body aircraft revenue passenger-miles per gallon 1, 0 200 wide body aircraft 100 0 2010 regional aircraft 2020 2030 2040 2050 energy consumption 0, 5 0, 0 2010 2020 Source: U. S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO 2021) 2030 2040 2050 www. eia. gov/aeo 13

Passenger travel demand aircraft stock Revenue passenger-miles AEO 2021 Reference case Average passenger load

Passenger travel demand aircraft stock Revenue passenger-miles AEO 2021 Reference case Average passenger load factors trillion passenger-miles 3 percentage 2020 history projections 90% passenger load factors 2 thousand active and parked passenger aircraft 10 thousand active cargo aircraft 2020 history projections revenue-passenger miles 2020 2030 2040 5 8 4 6 active passenger aircraft 4 active cargo aircraft 2 2 parked passenger 1 aircraft 0 2040 2050 60% 1 0 2010 Active versus parked passenger and cargo stock AEO 2021 Reference case 30% 0% 2050 0 2010 2020 2030 3 Note: Load factors are weighted by domestic and U. S. -originating or U. S. -bound flights’ relative share of revenue passenger-miles. Source: U. S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2021 (AEO 2021) www. eia. gov/aeo 14