Translational and Personalized Medicine Initiative Predictive Planning Presented

Translational and Personalized Medicine Initiative: Predictive Planning Presented by: Robert Wilson, Ph. D Postdoctoral Fellow

Predictive Planning System for LTC: Background Ageing Population • Canadian population is ageing • 1996= 12. 2% over the age of 65 • 2011=14. 8% • 2036=23% TPMI Qo. C Quarterly Report

Predictive Planning System for LTC: Background Ageing Population • NL’s population is ageing • 1996= 10. 8% over the age of 65 • 2011=16. 0% • 2036=30% TPMI Qo. C Quarterly Report

Predictive Planning System for LTC Background Long-Term Care in NL • Options • Home Support • Institutional Care • • Personal Care Homes Long-Term Care Facilities TPMI Qo. C Quarterly Report

Predictive Planning System for LTC Background Prior Research • • 3 studies of annual incident clients entering the single-entry system for institutional care in the St. John’s Region (1995/6, 1999/2000 & 2005/6) Recommendations for restructuring: • • More SC beds be built in the city of St. John’s Special Facilities for Cognitive Impairment and Appropriate Housing Fewer NH beds MONITOR the system and provide INFORMATICS and ANALYTICS tools for planning and evaluation TPMI Qo. C Quarterly Report

Predictive Planning System for LTC Background TPMI Qo. C Quarterly Report

Predictive Planning System for LTC Background • Appropriate Housing • 125 -215 • Supervised Care • 672 -801 • Supervised Care CI • 510 -681 • Nursing Home • 510 -681 • Actual Beds • SC=1009 • NH=1069 TPMI Qo. C Quarterly Report

Predictive Planning System for LTC Objectives • To develop the electronic infrastructure and the predictive analytics platform to improve the planning and provision of long-term care in Newfoundland & Labrador • To integrate the inter-RAI into the provincial long-term care electronic infrastructure • To describe the epidemiology of Level 2 clients in PCHs admitted to LTC facilities as Level 3 clients in the Eastern Health Region. TPMI Qo. C Quarterly Report

Predictive Planning System for LTC Methods Assessed Clients • • Annual incidence rates (per 1000 ≥ 65 years of age) Characteristics and demographics Placement (PCH or NH) Disability (RUGs-III and ARCS) (Eventually Inter-RAI) Optimal Placement (Housing, Supervised Care for CI, NH) by decision tree Appropriateness of placement Time to placement Survival TPMI Qo. C Quarterly Report

Predictive Planning System for LTC TPMI Qo. C Quarterly Report

Predictive Planning System for LTC TPMI Qo. C Quarterly Report

Predictive Planning System for LTC TPMI Qo. C Quarterly Report

Predictive Planning System for LTC TPMI Qo. C Quarterly Report

Predictive Planning System for LTC TPMI Qo. C Quarterly Report

Predictive Planning System for LTC TPMI Qo. C Quarterly Report

Predictive Planning System for LTC - Milestones TPMI Qo. C Quarterly Report

Predictive Planning System for LTC - Milestones Questions? ? TPMI Qo. C Quarterly Report