Transforming Defense Office of Force Transformation The Path

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Transforming Defense Office of Force Transformation “The Path Not Taken …yet” • The Role

Transforming Defense Office of Force Transformation “The Path Not Taken …yet” • The Role of Defense in National Security • The Management of Defense • The Force Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 23 July 2003 Vision: Broad and Sustained Competitive Advantage

Connecting the Present to Our Future Office of Force Transformation Expanding Competition Power and

Connecting the Present to Our Future Office of Force Transformation Expanding Competition Power and Principle Strategic Posture Shrinking the Dysfunctional, Disconnected Gap of Globalization Operational Maneuver Creating a one-two punch Mapping Future Challenges Risk Issues: • How to make near-term actions robust across alternative futures? • How to create on-ramps for capabilities?

Trends in Security Competition Office of Force Transformation Information Age • Short Cycle Time

Trends in Security Competition Office of Force Transformation Information Age • Short Cycle Time • New Competencies • Adaptive Planning • Integrated Joint • Interdependent Globalization III • Developed Rules • Mature Markets • Narrowing Customer Base • Security=Defense • Emerging Rules • Market Opportunities • New Customer Base Emerging • Security=All Else+Defense Industrial Age • Long Cycle Time • Well Developed Tools/Processes • Deliberate Planning • Deconflicted Joint • Tortured Interoperability

Expanding Competition Office of Force Transformation Policy Outcome = f {Power, Moral Principle, Strategic

Expanding Competition Office of Force Transformation Policy Outcome = f {Power, Moral Principle, Strategic Interests} • Therefore, U. S. policy will be attacked through its moral principles (legitimacy, international law, etc. ) Intensity U. S. power is unmatched Assure, Dissuade, Deter Decisively Defeat Duration If the frontiers of National Security can be everywhere and are not territorial borders but fault lines within societies, then … • The nexus of foreign and domestic security policy is intelligence • We must be able to look and operate deeply within societies Assured Access includes the domains of political victory • Speed of modern warfare creates a continuum, not a succession of phases

Security System Balance? … Major Movements Office of Force Transformation Strategic Maneuver/Balance Forces forward

Security System Balance? … Major Movements Office of Force Transformation Strategic Maneuver/Balance Forces forward Strategic deploy from home Allies Operational Maneuver From forward garrison From the sea From strategic distances Deter Forward 2 d derivative force Sustaining force Constabulary/Nation-building force

Strategic Posture … Exporting security Office of Force Transformation The Red Zone … …

Strategic Posture … Exporting security Office of Force Transformation The Red Zone … … Our Response

Global Trends … Military Response Office of Force Transformation The Emerging American Military: •

Global Trends … Military Response Office of Force Transformation The Emerging American Military: • • More expeditionary (including lighter, more lethal) More networked (more interoperability at the JTF level) • Designed to leverage the exterior positions (precision from distance as sensors move in) • Leverages increasingly persistent ISR • Tighter sensor-shooter timelines (sensing, C 2, fly-out) • Values Information Superiority (information operations) • Expanded unmanned capabilities (UAV, UCAV, UUV, robotics) Information Age Iraq 2 Globalization III Iraq 1 Industrial Age

Global Trends…Threats …Strategic Response Office of Force Transformation Strategic Capabilities: • More Preventative -

Global Trends…Threats …Strategic Response Office of Force Transformation Strategic Capabilities: • More Preventative - Less Punitive Information Age • Achieve unambiguous warning earlier • More SOF-Like characteristics • A Deter Forward Force Globalization III • An Intel/Surveillance-based force • Coping with system perturbations System Industrial Age -----[Great Power War? ]----- State Political Ideology Hated Dictator Individual Narcoterrorists Regional Terrorists Hated Dictator w/Nukes Nuclear Nationalists International SEI w/Bugs Terrorists

Top Level Issues …Culture: Values, Beliefs, Attitudes Office of Force Transformation Citizen Soldier Volunteer

Top Level Issues …Culture: Values, Beliefs, Attitudes Office of Force Transformation Citizen Soldier Volunteer (Recruited) Force Professional Warrior + Enforcer + “Systems Administrator” Projecting Power Exporting Security Event Focused Continuous Punitive Preventative Access to Battlespace Access to Political Victory Policy Outcome = f {Power, Moral Principle, Strategic Interests}

Candidates for Action Now …Identify issues of regret Office of Force Transformation Warfare Elements

Candidates for Action Now …Identify issues of regret Office of Force Transformation Warfare Elements • • • Fire - Non-lethals, Directed Energy, Redirected Energy Maneuver - Sea basing, vertical battlefield, lift for operational maneuver Protection - Urban Operations, “Bug-to-Drug” Cycle Time C 2&C – Joint Interdependency vs. Interoperability ISR - Demand-centered Intel, Tactically Responsive Space Logistics - Joint demand-centered logistics Policy Outcome = f {Power, Moral Principle, Strategic Interests} Risk Management Areas (creating on-ramps) • • • Joint S&T Joint Experimentation Modern Warfare Modeling Tools People: cost or resource Precision Deterrence

Transforming Defense Office of Force Transformation Global Interests => Surrogate Wars => System Perturbations

Transforming Defense Office of Force Transformation Global Interests => Surrogate Wars => System Perturbations and Consequences MAD Containment 1990 2000 Homeland Security Global Interests Homeland Security Precision Deterrence?

Evolution of Precision Strike: … Effectiveness against fixed targets Office of Force Transformation Then

Evolution of Precision Strike: … Effectiveness against fixed targets Office of Force Transformation Then & Now: One-sixtieth the tonnage required to drop a bridge span 250 B-17 240 Tons F-4 D 200 Tons F-4 D LGB 12. 5 Tons F-117 LGB 4 Tons All weather B-1 JDAM 4 Tons 1940 s 1960 s 1970 s 1990 s 2000 s Tons Required 200 150 100 50 0 Tons of bombs required to drop a bridge span (90% confidence)

Evolution of Precision Strike: … Effectiveness against mobile targets Office of Force Transformation Then

Evolution of Precision Strike: … Effectiveness against mobile targets Office of Force Transformation Then & Now: Sorties required to neutralize 10 mobile armored battalions * Unguided Unitary Bombs Sorties required Unguided Cluster Weapons Maverick SFW 1940 s 1960 s 1970 s 1990 s * Damage 15 out of 30 armored vehicles per battalion WCMD/SFW/P 3 I 2000 s

Evolution of Precision Strike: … Quantity of bombs assigned for 90% Probability of Kill

Evolution of Precision Strike: … Quantity of bombs assigned for 90% Probability of Kill Office of Force Transformation Then & Now: Over Three Orders of Magnitude reduction in weapons required to destroy a fixed target 9, 000 Bombs 1, 500 B-17 Sorties 3, 300' CEP 1940 s 176 Bombs 88 F-4 Sorties 400' CEP 1970 s 2 Bombs 1 F-16 Sortie 10' CEP 1990 s 1 Bomb 1 B-2 Sortie < 10' CEP 2000 s Advanced weapons systems armed with precision munitions are extremely accurate but are highly dependent on quality information

Paradigm Changes … To Enable Precision Deterrence Office of Force Transformation Precision Deterrence =

Paradigm Changes … To Enable Precision Deterrence Office of Force Transformation Precision Deterrence = f {Power, Moral Principle, Strategic Interests} Ours & Theirs Weapons of Mass Destruction (Nukes) Weapons of Precision Deterrence • Large Area Affected Makes up for Lack of Precise Weapon and Target Location • Precise Weapon and Target Location Allows Focused Effects • Non-Linear Political Consequences • Militarily Relevant • Self Deterring • Operationally Useful

Deterrence is … Office of Force Transformation Context Dependent An Effects Based Operation –

Deterrence is … Office of Force Transformation Context Dependent An Effects Based Operation – Highly reliant on intelligence – A state of mind brought about by the existence of a credible threat of unacceptable counteraction relevant to those we wish to deter – Precision Deterrence: creating a precise local effect in the cognitive domain – Ways can be military, financial, economic or diplomatic – The Duality of Means … û Viewed as Disproportionate by the Target Viewed as Proportionate by the World Precision Effect Precision Deterrence must have a local effect – it can have a global impact

Military Options … for Precision Deterrence Office of Force Transformation • Directed Energy Weapons

Military Options … for Precision Deterrence Office of Force Transformation • Directed Energy Weapons • Non-Lethal Weapons – Lasers • Covert engagement at a safe distance • All aspect engagement and re • -targeting capability • Ultra precise targeting and Operational aimpoint Commonality • Adjustable delivered energy ? – High Powered Microwaves • Deter belligerents • Ultra precise targeting and aimpoint • Deny an area to personnel • Control crowds – Counter-Personnel – Counter-Material – Counter-Capability Need for decision space and time – Ability to act while discriminating intent – Increase engagement time and range • Need to satisfy policy and operational constraints – Target – Non-combatants – Own force

Precision Deterrence … Issues and Choices Office of Force Transformation How do we balance

Precision Deterrence … Issues and Choices Office of Force Transformation How do we balance local (tactical) deterrence and global (strategic) deterrence? What kind of JWAC-like process is required to create cognitive effects? Can our intelligence community identify that which our adversaries hold most dear? What are the new tools of deterrence that support our moral principles and strategic interests and how do they interact? What are the new concepts for deterrence?