Towards coherent cumulative effects assessment for marine management
- Slides: 10
Towards coherent cumulative effects assessment for marine management and planning Edward Willsteed 1, 2 Silvana Birchenough 2 Andrew B Gill 3 Simon Jude 1 1 School 2 The of Water, Energy & Environment, Cranfield University, UK Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Lowestoft, UK 3 Pangalia Environmental, UK www. cranfield. ac. uk
Context Assessments intended to meet legal obligations Ecosystem approach Environmental change
Reviewing the subject Regional, large-scale phenomena, political commitments, weak legislation, many system interactions, low resolution Local level, fine-scale phenomena, Environmental Impact Assessment, strong legislation, fewer system interactions, higher resolution Willsteed E, Gill AB, Birchenough SNR, Jude S. Assessing the cumulative environmental effects of marine renewable energy developments: establishing common ground. Sci Total Environ 2017; 577: 19– 32. Feedback Ecoregion level, Strategic Environmental Assessment, weaker legislation, more system interactions, lower resolution
Evaluating current practice Supporting evidence 1 4 Very weak Very strong Projectreceptor Project multiple pathways stressors 44 33 Uncertainty Receptor trend dealt with 22 Project 'Plus' Receptor receptor multiple pathways stressors 11 Significance Receptor determinations baseline Receptor effects Knock-on selection Willsteed, E. ; Jude, S. ; Gill, A. ; Birchenough, S. (2018). Obligations and Aspirations: A Critical Evaluation of Offshore Wind Farm Cumulative Impact Assessments. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 82(3), 2332 -2345.
North Sea Autumn Spawning Herring (ICES data) Thames herring (Cefas data) 05 05 05 7. 19 . 0 07 7. 19 . 0 05 7. 19 . 0 03 05 05 7. 19 . 0 01 6. 19 . 0 29 05 6. 19 . 0 27 05 05 6. 19 . 0 23 05 6. 19 . 0 21 05 05 6. 19 . 0 19 6. 19 . 0 17 05 05 6. 19 . 0 13 05 6. 19 . 0 11 05 6. 19 . 0 09 05 6. 19 . 0 07 05 6. 19 . 0 05 05 19 6. . 0 03 0 : 0 00 0: : 0 0 0: 00 0 : 0 00 0: : 0 0 0: 00 0 : 0 00 0: 0 : 0 00 0: North Sea herring SSB (tonnes) 3000000 1200 2500000 1000 2000000 800 1500000 600 1000000 400 500000 200 0 0 Thames herring SSB (tonnes) Sliding baselines and significance of change
Set-up Prepare ground for coherence An approach to strengthen project cumulative effects assessment Specification what will the activity interact with? Receptor pivot what does the receptor interact with? Baseline how resilient/fragile is the receptor? Willsteed, E. A. , Birchenough, S. N. R. , Gill, A. B. & Jude, S. Structuring cumulative effects assessments to support regional and local marine management and planning obligations. Mar. Policy 98, 23– 32 (2018) Assess cumulative change how will the activity affect the persistence of interactions? Scenarios resilience considering slow variables future
Existing evidence s rio a n e Sc Se t-u Ass ess cha nge p S n pe c i f i c atio e lin se Ba ivot P r o t p Rece
Application uncertainties s rio a n e Sc Se t-u Ass ess cha nge p S n pe c i f i c atio e lin se Ba ivot P r o t p Rece
Summary • Ecosystem approach requires more of formal cumulative effects assessment • Existing evidence can be better structured to deliver more comprehensive, science-led assessments • Coherence vital – perspective, language and practical principles • Influencing policy – the next frontier?
Thanks • ICES • Supervisors! Andrew, Simon and Silvana • Cefas • NERC e. a. willsteed@cranfield. ac. uk
