Towards a Global Alignment Week 6 Brzezinski As

“Towards a Global Alignment” Week 6

Brzezinski: As its era of global dominance ends, the United States needs to take the lead in realigning the global power architecture.

What verities are signaling the coming of a new global realignment? The emerging redistribution of global political power and the violent political awakening in the Mid. East • The US is no longer the globally imperial power; • Russia is experiencing the latest convulsive phase of its imperial devolution • China is rising steadily • Europe is not now and is not likely to become a global power; • The currently violent political awakening among postcolonial Muslims

The US is no longer the globally imperial power; but neither is any other major power • Mearsheimer: “… the United States labored for more than a century to gain regional hegemony … it has made sure that no other great power dominated either Asia or Europe the way it dominates the Western Hemisphere. …”

Russia is experiencing the latest convulsive phase of its imperial devolution • A painful process, Russia is not fatally precluded – if it acts wisely – from becoming eventually a leading European nation-state. • However, currently it is pointlessly alienating some of its former subjects in the Islamic southwest of its once extensive empire, as well as Ukraine, Belarus, and Georgia, not to mention the Baltic States.

EU is not now and is not likely to become a global power. • But it can play a constructive role in taking the lead in regard to transnational threats to global wellbeing and even human survival. • Additionally, Europe is politically and culturally aligned with and supportive of core U. S. interests in the Middle East, and European steadfastness within NATO is essential to an eventually constructive resolution of the Russia. Ukraine crisis.

The currently violent political awakening among post-colonial Muslims • It is, in part, a belated reaction to their occasionally brutal suppression mostly by European powers. • It fuses a delayed but deeply felt sense of injustice with a religious motivation that is unifying large numbers of Muslims against the outside world; but at the same time, because of historic sectarian schisms within Islam that have nothing to do with the West, the recent welling up of historical grievances is also divisive within Islam. • the US must take the lead in realigning the global power architecture in such a way that the violence can be contained without destroying the global order.

Questioning the rise of China by Assessing Power Transition Theory

Will China overtake the US in national power? • if more slowly as of late, as America’s eventual coequal and likely rival; but for the time being it is careful not to pose an outright challenge to America. • Militarily, it seems to be seeking a breakthrough in a new generation of weapons while patiently enhancing its still very limited naval power.

Will China seek to overturn the existing international or regional order? Political Scientist J. Mearsheimer: • “…China cannot rise peacefully” • “… I am not arguing that Chinese behavior alone will drive the security competition that lies ahead. The United States is also likely to behave in aggressive ways”

Can a US-China “cold war” be averted? • As it faces an ascendant China, the US should remember that its leadership of the Western order allows it to shape the environment in which China will make critical strategic choices. • • If the US wants to preserve this leadership, Washington must work to strengthen the rules and institutions that underpin that order--making it even easier to join and harder to overturn. • Ikanberry: "The road to the East runs through the West. "

Will US seek to “contain” China? • No US ability to contain • High Interdependence • US corporations heavy investments in China • Need for cooperation • No ideological challenge • No serious military challenge

“power is no longer a zero-sum game”