Tools for ConflictSensitive Agriculture Talk for AIARD Annual

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Tools for Conflict-Sensitive Agriculture Talk for AIARD Annual Meeting, June 4, 2006 Michael S.

Tools for Conflict-Sensitive Agriculture Talk for AIARD Annual Meeting, June 4, 2006 Michael S. Lund, Senior Associate for Conflict and Peacebuilding, Management Systems International, Inc.

Overview Post 9/11 US foreign policy sees development as key part of war on

Overview Post 9/11 US foreign policy sees development as key part of war on terrorism • Remote, poor countries that had no geo-strategic significance are seen as possible breeding grounds or sanctuaries for terrorists. • US Gov’t. inter-agency efforts are focussing on failed states and post-conflict countries • Varied programming sectors – women, police, agriculture, youth -are “discovering” conflict and fragile states and want to address them Aims of talk: Part I. Recent conflicts and useful concepts Part II. How agricultural issues can be part of the problem Part III. How agricultural professionals can be part of the solution

1. Part I: Recent Conflicts and Useful Concepts Global Picture Since 1989, there have

1. Part I: Recent Conflicts and Useful Concepts Global Picture Since 1989, there have been about 115 major armed conflicts. The vast bulk arose over intra-state issues – control of the government or territory, or government policies -- not issues between states. Examples • Former Soviet Union: Georgia, Moldova, Tajikistan, Chechnya • Balkans: Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo • Africa: Algeria, Somalia, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Burundi, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo • Asia: East Timor, Nepal, Afghanistan, Philippines • Latin America: Chiapas, Mexico Many intra-state conflicts are still active: 20 in 2005 (e. g. , Colombia, Sri Lanka).

Types of post-Cold War conflicts Global or regional transnational: Islamic jihadists (e. g. ,

Types of post-Cold War conflicts Global or regional transnational: Islamic jihadists (e. g. , IMT in Central Asia), Al Qaeda Intra-state, on a national scale: – humanitarian emergencies (Somalia), – civil wars secessionist struggles (Eritrea), – ethnic and religious identity-based civil wars (southern Sudan), – ethnic cleansing (Yugoslavia), – genocide (Rwanda), – insurgencies (northern Uganda), – terrorist bombings (North Caucasus in Russia) Intra-state, pitting national vs. local interests: natural resource conflicts (Papua in Indonesia, Bougainville) Intra-state, localized: – intercommunal resource conflicts (Indonesia, Kenya), – inter-ethnic riots (India) – local political uprisings (Uzbekistan),

THE GOOD NEWS: Violent conflicts have declined! Global Trends in Violent Conflict: 1946 -2004

THE GOOD NEWS: Violent conflicts have declined! Global Trends in Violent Conflict: 1946 -2004 Warfare Totals (Societal +All Interstate) Societal Warfare All Interstate Wars (inc. colonial wars) Interstate Warfare

Why? This drop in conflicts is not accidental. It results from developing country leaders’

Why? This drop in conflicts is not accidental. It results from developing country leaders’ political learning, plus: “…persistent and coordinated efforts at peacebuilding by civil society organizations, national leaders, non-governmental organizations, and international bodies. ” (Gurr and Marshall, 2005)

THE BAD NEWS: Future trends can bring new conflicts! • Current “post-conflict” countries can

THE BAD NEWS: Future trends can bring new conflicts! • Current “post-conflict” countries can slide back to conflict (e. g. , E. Timor) • Powerful global trends can generate future conflicts and failed states: – Environmental: degradation; global warming; scarcer water, oil, and land – Social: rapid population growth, millions of educated but unemployed young people, gross socio-economic disparities within and between nations – Economic: globalization, liberalization, smuggling – Political: democratization; terrorism and antiterrorism; erosion of international cooperation – Military: small arms proliferation

Early Warnings 31 countries are currently listed as very vulnerable to mass killings, serious

Early Warnings 31 countries are currently listed as very vulnerable to mass killings, serious violent conflict, or government collapse in the next few years, such as: • Afghanistan, Algeria, Burma, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Guinea, Haiti, Lebanon, Pakistan, Papua in Indonesia. 51 other countries are somewhat vulnerable, such as: • Armenia, Egypt, India, Russia, Serbia

Why Be Concerned about Conflict and Fragile States?

Why Be Concerned about Conflict and Fragile States?

Violent intra-state conflicts destroy the environment and development and export problems Conflicts and state

Violent intra-state conflicts destroy the environment and development and export problems Conflicts and state failure are “development in reverse. ” • They inflict on the conflict countries: civilian deaths and injuries, ruined infrastructure, hunger, disease (HIV/AIDS, malaria), population dislocation, higher military expenditures, capital outflows, destroyed or halted development programs, policy and political breakdown, psychological trauma, landmines. • They export to us and others: refugees, migrants, disease, increased military burdens, reduced economic growth, illicit drugs.

Part II: How Agricultural Issues can be Part of the Problem

Part II: How Agricultural Issues can be Part of the Problem

Four basic ways agriculture can contribute to conflicts 1. Failures in aggregate production: widespread

Four basic ways agriculture can contribute to conflicts 1. Failures in aggregate production: widespread food insecurity can generate popular unrest 2. Chronic mal-distribution of assets within or benefits from the agricultural process (e. g. , land tenure, seed, water, credit, infrastructure, technical assistance, prices, income) creates intergroup competition 3. Social or other externalities: harmful crops (e. g. , poppies for coca, cotton or other crops requiring exploitative labor or environmental damage) 4. Rural lands as symbols for group identity (e. g. , Chiapas Indians)

Violent Conflicts Have Multiple Sources For violent conflicts to actually erupt, underlying, enabling and

Violent Conflicts Have Multiple Sources For violent conflicts to actually erupt, underlying, enabling and triggering factors must come together -- at the same place and time. The “Perfect Storm”

The “dry woodpile on a hot day”

The “dry woodpile on a hot day”

Sources and Drivers of Violent Conflicts • Underlying (“root”) sources are slow-acting, hard-tochange conditions

Sources and Drivers of Violent Conflicts • Underlying (“root”) sources are slow-acting, hard-tochange conditions that increase the possibility of violence • Enabling sources are processes -- institutions, policies, politics, resources, ideologies -- that worsen the underlying sources or fail to address them and thus mobilize collective violence • Triggering factors are immediate acts or sudden events that directly cause violence or escalate it further

How agriculture problems can cumulate into violent conflicts: Illustrated in (A) Zimbabwe and (B)

How agriculture problems can cumulate into violent conflicts: Illustrated in (A) Zimbabwe and (B) Uzbekistan Sources Examples Agricultural Illustrations Underlying Mountainous or forested terrain, fragile environment (e. g. , drought), natural “resource curse” A. Limits of arable land in Zimbabwe B. Rich soil but chronic poverty, unemployed urban youth in Ferghana Valley, Uzbekistan Enabling Skewed land tenure laws, extremist political mobilization and ideologies (“creed”); “conflict diamonds” (“greed”); chronic marginalization of certain groups (“need”); corrupt, unresponsive governments; arms flows; weak security forces A. Disproportionate land for white farmers; Mugabe politicization of the issue using anti-colonial imagery. B. Immiseration of peasants by Uzbekistan gov’t. cotton harvesting policies in Ferghana Valley Triggering Natural disasters (e. g. famine), assassination, hate rhetoric, massacres A. Elections in Zimbabwe elicit intimidation of Mugabe’s opponents B. Jail protests in Andijan, Uzbekistan, 2005 vent general frustrations

Existing Capacities for Peace Almost always, some built-in local capacities also exist for that

Existing Capacities for Peace Almost always, some built-in local capacities also exist for that can “brake” escalation into violence conflicts: • Mitigating conditions (legal or illegal) often offset root causes – e. g. , patronage networks, remittances, smuggling • Transforming social and political mechanisms and policies channel grievances, contain tensions – e. g. , traditional dispute resolution, • Conciliating acts discourage violent acts and elicit cooperation -- e. g. , compensatory rituals, key leaders bargaining

Capacities for Peace in Agriculture Sources General Examples Agricultural examples Mitigators (offset root causes)

Capacities for Peace in Agriculture Sources General Examples Agricultural examples Mitigators (offset root causes) resource interdependency Household livelihood coping practices in drought Transformers (channel enabling causes) Effective, legitimate law enforcement; elections, social safety nets River basin commissions, Gal Oya inter-ethnic irrigation project (Sri Lanka) Conciliators (discourage triggers) Non-violent boycotts, leaders’ Kyrgyz/Uzbek/Tajik water good will gestures negotiations, non-violent opposition to Mugabe in Zimbabwe

Part III. : How Agricultural Professionals can be Part of the Solution To address

Part III. : How Agricultural Professionals can be Part of the Solution To address conflict and state fragility effectively, do conflictsensitive agriculture programming • • At least, “Do No Harm”: Don’t worsen sources of violent conflict! Don’t weaken existing capacities for peace! • • Even better, “Do Some Good”: Reduce (offset, channel, discourage) sources of violence Build up or add capacities for peaceful progress

How? Conflict-Sensitive Agriculture Programming: Steps 1. Identify sources of possible violence and state fragility

How? Conflict-Sensitive Agriculture Programming: Steps 1. Identify sources of possible violence and state fragility (in conjunction with an agricultural sector assessment) 2. Identify existing capacities for peace 3. Assess whether existing ag. programs are helping or hurting – how do they affect conflict sources and peace capacities? 4. Design and implement programs that reduce the sources and strengthen the capacities.

Conflict-Sensitive Agriculture Programming 1. Identify Sources of Possible Violence and Fragility 2. Identify Existing

Conflict-Sensitive Agriculture Programming 1. Identify Sources of Possible Violence and Fragility 2. Identify Existing Capacities for Peace 3. Assess Whether Existing Ag. Programs are Hurting or Helping 4. Design and Implement Programs that are Conflictsensitive What are Underlying? Alleviating? How to Alleviate? Conflict-sensitive technological innovations What are Enabling? Transforming ? How to Transform? Conflict-sensitive land reform, hire youth, inter-ethnic vertical production and distribution chains, inter-group business associations What are Triggering? Conciliating? How to Conciliate? Local early warning and dispute resolution procedures

A Key Lesson: Act Early to Prevent Violence from Erupting • Violent conflicts do

A Key Lesson: Act Early to Prevent Violence from Erupting • Violent conflicts do not suddenly explode; they are preceded by increasing tensions and disputes. • This offers time and opportunities to act -- before it is much harder to contain violence. • It is much more humane and cheaper to act early to keep peaceful disputes from erupting into violent conflicts, through pro-active preventive actions, than to deal with wars and their aftermath. Ø Prevention Success stories: Baltic states, Macedonia, Ukraine. Crimea, So. China Sea Islands dispute Ø Failures or Missed Opportunities: Bosnia, Rwanda, Darfur • Differing stages in the life cycle of conflicts often require different policies.

Life Cycle of Conflicts Stages of Peace or Conflict PEACEMAKING PEACE ENFORCEMENT (Conflict management)

Life Cycle of Conflicts Stages of Peace or Conflict PEACEMAKING PEACE ENFORCEMENT (Conflict management) (Conflict mitigation) Chechnya, early 1995 WAR cease-fire CRISIS DIPLOMACY outbreak of violence PEACEKEEPING Bosnia, early 1996 (Crisis management) (Conflict termination) settlement CRISIS UNSTABLE PEACE North Korea, 1994 confrontation PREVENTIVE DIPLOMACY Kosovo, 1993 (Conflict prevention) Cambodia, 1995 rapprochement rising tension STABLE PEACETIME DIPLOMACY OR POLITICS (Basic order) El Salvador, 1995 Russia, 1993 POSTCONFLICT PEACE BUILDING (Conflict resolution) South Africa, 1995 U. S. -China, 1995 reconciliation U. S. -Britain, 20 th Century DURABLE PEACE Duration of Conflict (Just order) Early Stage Mid-conflict Late Stage

Prevention is cheaper than war and post-conflict reconstruction Violent Cost of Conflict cases conflict

Prevention is cheaper than war and post-conflict reconstruction Violent Cost of Conflict cases conflict to outside powers Cost of prevention Savings from prevention Bosnia (actual) Actual: $53. 7 Est. : $33. 3 billion $20. 4 billion Macedonia Est. : $143. 9 billion $143. 6 billion (possible) Actual: $. 3 billion

Conclusion 1. Conflict and failed states have many destructive impacts. 2. But violent conflicts

Conclusion 1. Conflict and failed states have many destructive impacts. 2. But violent conflicts and state breakdowns are NOT inevitable. They can be prevented, contained and terminated, and they often are. 3. The sources and dynamics of conflict and state failure are multi-faceted and complex, but not mysterious or inevitable. 4. Agriculture and agriculture policies/programs can affect conflict and fragility, positively or negatively -- depending how they affect conflict sources and peace capacities. 5. If agricultural professionals seek to understand conflict sources and peace capacities where they work, they can design “conflict sensitive” programs that make a discernible difference.