To Brexit or not to Brexit Thats the

To Brexit or not to Brexit ? That’s the question Prof. Dr. Ludo Cuyvers

European Union and UK: Strange bedfellows? • The European Community (EU-6) started as a political project with an economic agenda (customs union) • The UK reacted by establishing EFTA • The UK applied for membership as a purely economic agenda

1963 + 1967 1963: De Gaulle vetoed the British application to join the European Economic Community (EEC), famously uttering the single word 'non' into the television cameras at the critical moment, a statement used to sum up French opposition towards Britain for many years afterwards. 1967: De Gaulle says 'non' to Britain - again The French President, Charles de Gaulle, has for a second time said he will veto Britain's application to join the Common Market.

“I want my money back !” P. M. Margaret Thatcher, 30 November 1979, EEC Summit, Dublin

OECD predictions differ somewhat from these of the EIU.

Dhingra, Ottaviano, Sampson & Van Reenen (2016): The Consequences of Brexit for UK Trade and Living Standards, London: LSE Centre for Economic Performance

Source: http: //www. tradingeconomics. com/united-kingdom/business-confidence/forecast

Triggering Article 50, formally notifying the intention to withdraw, starts the clock running. The terms of exit will be negotiated between Britain’s 27 counterparts, and each will have a veto over the conditions. UK Government will have to: • Negotiate a new deal with Brussels • Win a series of major bilateral trade deals around the world • Revise its own governance as EU law recedes

To conclude No one benefits from the present uncertainty, nor from trade restrictions. The negotiations will not benefit from any hard-feelings. However, it will be very difficult to reconcile: • The EU perspective of a single market with free movement of people inside the EU, • The UK perspective of access to the EU single market but with restrictions to the movement of people inside the EU.