TNS Medium Gallup Attitudes towards the Impact of

TNS Medium Gallup Attitudes towards the Impact of the Refugee and Migrant Crisis in Serbia’s Municipalities 2016 TNS Medium Gallup Report prepared for UNDP in Serbia ©TNS 2016

Introduction As part of the project entitled Strengthening Coordination and Municipal Response to the Migrant Crisis, TNS Medium Gallup, in cooperation with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), conducted a survey of attitudes towards the impact of the migrant crisis on the municipalities in Serbia. Survey objective The objective of the survey was to identify the needs of local self-governments and communities most heavily exposed to the impact of the migrant crisis. Period Two waves: March and September 2016 Territory 20 municipalities in Serbia, affected by migrant crisis, selected in agreement with UNDP Serbia Target groups: 1. General population § Sample size: N~800 resp. per wave § Sample type: 18+, stratified random sampling § Method: face to face, in house of respondents Sample 2. Local self-governments’ representatives § Sample size: N~170 resp. per wave § Sample type: targeted sample § Method: combination of face to face, telephone and web interview TNS Medium Gallup Report prepared for UNDP in Serbia ©TNS 2016 2

Analysis based on the impact of migrant crises on municipalities: I grupaaffected I – Intensely Municipalities more intensely affected by the crises: § § § § Preševo Šid Kanjiža Beograd (Palilula, Savski venac i Stari grad) Bujanovac Dimitrovgrad Bosilegrad Negotin II grupa II – Moderately affected Šid Municipalities moderately affected by the crises: § § § § § Zaječar Pirot Vranje Surdulica Vladičin Han Smederevo Aleksinac Obrenovac Sombor Preševo Šid & Preševo In addition to the analysis by group, samples was also provided comprising around 60 respondents each, for Preševo and Šid, in order to carry out specific analyses at the level of individual municipalities because of the importance of these municipalities. TNS Medium Gallup Report prepared for UNDP in Serbia ©TNS 2016 3

Citizens’ point of view TNS Medium Gallup Report prepared for UNDP in Serbia ©TNS 2016

Socioeconomic issues most important for citizens Most important issues Living standard CITIZENS: In your opinion, what ARE the most urgent PROBLEMS that is Municipality where you live faced? (in %) CITIZENS: How would you describe living standard in which you and your family live right now? (in %) 80 Unemployment 76 Low standard of living 32 Corruption 30 Health care 24 Social protection Migrants / Refugees 14 Road Infrastructure 14 Waste and recycling 10 = 9 = Legalization 38 1 Very bad 4 DK/NA 2 6 Bad governance 4 Mostly good Mostly bad 2 11 Water supply and sewage = 45 1 13 Bad governance 12 Very good 1 25 Crime 3 3 4 2 Perception of migrants as problems in municipalities Sep-16 Sep 16 - Mart 16 I – More intensely affected by the crises 22 + 6 6 - 38 16 + 12 Preševo Base 1 Total Sep-16 811 Mar-16 800 Šid II – Moderately affected by the crises 9 - 6 TNS Medium Gallup Report prepared for UNDP in Serbia ©TNS 2016 5

Neutral opinion about the migrants prevails among citizens, with negative tendency Lower level of information about the migrant crisis on the part of citizens is correlated with the citizens’ neutral and negative opinion about migrants. CITIZENS: How well are you informed about migrant/refugee crisis overall? (in %) CITIZENS: In general, what is your attitude towards migrants/refugees entering Serbia? (in %) 1 4 20 14 42 45 4 2 43 54 53 45 Don’t know/No answer TOTAL "Good" Don’t know/No answer 37 37 Neutral TOTAL "Bad" Mar-16 Sep-16 TOTAL "Positive" TOTAL "Negative" Mar-16 Sep-16 Base Total Sep-16 811 Mar-16 800 TNS Medium Gallup Report prepared for UNDP in Serbia ©TNS 2016 6

Citizens’ attitudes towards migrants in municipalities Attitudes towards migrants/refugees CITIZENS: In general, what is your attitude towards migrants/refugees entering Serbia? Average score on the scale 1 -5 (1 „very negative opinion“ - 5 „very positive opinion“) 1 2 March 2016 September 2016 2, 66 2, 73 Middle scores (over 3, 0) 1. 87 2. 11 2. 28 Subotica Aleksinac Sombor Bosilegrad Dimitrovgrad Pirot 3. 47 Smederevo 3. 42 Preševo 3. 10 Vladičin Han 3. 05 Palilula 2. 98 Negotin 2. 91 Vranje 2. 88 Obrenovac 2. 76 Savski Venac 2. 70 Surdulica 2. 67 Stari Grad 2. 64 Zaječar 2. 60 Kanjiza 2. 56 Šid 2. 55 Bujanovac 2. 36 2. 52 2, 70 3 Lower scores (2, 5 -2, 9) The lowest scores (up to 2, 5) Average – 2016 50 120 42 62 124 36* 124 55 67 60 285 44 118 81 94 51 80 32* 54 1. 66 Base: 1611, March and September 2016 merged, by municipality *Very small bases (below 40 respondents) TNS Medium Gallup Report prepared for UNDP in Serbia ©TNS 2016 7

Citizens understand the reasons for migrations Although the majority of citizens believe that migrants are leaving their countries because of wars and lack of safety in these areas, socioeconomic reasons are more frequently mentioned in Autumn 2016. CITIZENS: In your opinion, what is the key reason why migrants/refugees leave their original countries of residence? (in %) War, lack of safety and security, fear of persecution 92 60 They want better living standard Sep-16 Mar-16 74 20 14 62 24 311 40 Human rights and freedoms at risk Unemployment 7 42 Lack of future perspective Crime and corruption CITIZENS: In your opinion, what is the final destination for migrants/refugees? (in %) 28 26 7 Developed EU countries Mostly developed EU countries, a minority who fail to get there will stay in Serbia and the region Serbia as a final destination 11 They themselves still do not know Don't know/no answer Mar-16 Base Total Sep-16 811 Mar-16 800 TNS Medium Gallup Report prepared for UNDP in Serbia ©TNS 2016 8

Citizens on the differences between the current migrants/refugees from the Middle East and refugees of the ‘ 90 s in the former Yugoslavia The level of identification of migrants/refugees from the Middle East with refugees of the '90 s in the former Yugoslavia is partial. Prevailing perception of differences, having in mind different culture, religion and language. CITIZENS: Which of the following is the closest to your opinion (in %): There is no difference between current migrants/refugees from the Middle East and refugees of the ‘ 90 s in the former Yugoslavia 50 There is a difference between current migrants/refugees from the Middle East and refugees of the ‘ 90 s in the former Yugoslavia Don’t know / No answer 45 36 14 39 16 Sep-16 Base Total Mar-16 Sep-16 811 Mar-16 800 TNS Medium Gallup Report prepared for UNDP in Serbia ©TNS 2016 9

3 Situation within municipality TNS Medium Gallup Report prepared for UNDP in Serbia ©TNS 2016

Perception of migrant crisis in municipalities Based on citizens’ perception from moderately affected municipalities, number of migrants is increasing, while the number stayed the same in municipalities intensely affected by the crises. CITIZENS: Based on your perception in the last 6 months, has the number of migrants/refugees in your Municipality increased, decreased or stayed the same: 65 Increased 51 17 9 9 28 9 13 Stayed the same Decreased Mar-16 Sep-16 CITIZENS: Was your Municipality successful in dealing with the refugee/migrant crisis in your municipality/city? 56 13 Completely unsuccessful 55 14 11 15 Mainly unsuccessful 14 Mainly successful 6 Mar-16 14 Sep-16 3 Completely successful Don't know/no answer Local self government stated satisfaction with municipalities’ efficiency when dealing with the crisis (over 90%). Base Total Sep-16 811 Mar-16 800 TNS Medium Gallup Report prepared for UNDP in Serbia ©TNS 2016 11

What kind of help should migrants receive? CITIZENS: In your opinion, what kind of help should migrants receive first? And then? (in %) CITIZENS: Have you recently heard about any international financial support/donation to your Municipality aimed to help migrant/refugee crisis? (in %) 76 8 42 41 30 28 24 Help females from violence Help with children Information Registration Clothing Medical help Shelter until they continue towards EU Transport to the EU Food 8 1 1 Other 48 Employment 51 7 72 67 Don’t know / No answer 19 25 Yes Sep-16 Mar-16 No Sep-16 Citizens are willing to personally help migrants by providing food, clothing, information and necessary items for children. On the other hand, local self-government employees have indicated that the municipalities have made available to migrants the following services: accommodation, food, medical care, then clothing and transport, free communications (Internet access, mobile phone battery charging, use of phones), information, as well as humanitarian aid provided by the Red Cross. Base Total Sep-16 811 Mar-16 800 TNS Medium Gallup Report prepared for UNDP in Serbia ©TNS 2016 12

Local self-government officials on migrant crises LOCAL SELF-GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS: What are the other challenges/problems which employees of the local bodies face in delivering regular public services to population due to migrant/refugee crisis? (in %) Mar-16 Sep-16 LOCAL SELF-GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS Which resources for your municipality’s functioning are most needed to ensure a continued successful response to the migrant/refugee crisis? (in %) Financial assistance 50 62 70 Lack of technical resources /equipment 29. 0 34. 0 Hygiene issues 26. 2 29. 1 Lack of financial resources 41. 0 25. 5 Technical resources /equipment Lack of medical equipment and financing issues 23. 8 22. 7 Other Lack of human resources 23. 7 22. 0 Human resources – municipal staff 2 4 1 Intensively affected municipalities DDD (disinfection and rodent/pest control) 6. 3 12. 8 Human resources – Volunteers Bureaucratic obstacles 8. 4 11. 3 2 4 1 Moderately affected municipalities 20. 4 8. 5 Sewage system 4. 8 7. 1 Water supply system 7. 0 5. 7 Other 5. 3 3. 5 Garbage collection 7 7 7 Accommodation/reception facilities 13 7 6 6 6 Information 0 0 No assistance is necessary 0 0 0 Do not know / No answer 21 sep. 16 8 8 7 8 Base Total Sep-16 167 Mar-16 176 TNS Medium Gallup Report prepared for UNDP in Serbia ©TNS 2016 13

4 Accepting migrants/refugees TNS Medium Gallup Report prepared for UNDP in Serbia ©TNS 2016

Level of migrants’ acceptance Low support of admitting migrants permanently, with majority opposing to opening centers for their accommodation in the territory of their municipality. CITIZENS: Would you oppose or agree with the establishment of an accommodation facility of migrants/refugees on the municipal territory? (in %) Oppose 70 Agree Don’t know / No answer 60 24 29 6 The closer the expected interaction is, the lower the level of willingness of citizens to participate in this interaction. 11 CITIZENS: In your opinion, should Serbia admit migrants/refugees permanently? (in %) Yes, as many as possible Yes, some of them 40 38 No, none of them Don't know/no answer 3 7 47 46 10 11 Sep-16 Mar-16 Citizens from Kanjiža, Zaječar and Šid most oppose to accepting migrants temporarily or permanently. Biggest issue for admitting migrants/refugees permanently are poverty in Serbia, cultural, religious and language differences. Base Total Sep-16 811 Mar-16 800 TNS Medium Gallup Report prepared for UNDP in Serbia ©TNS 2016 15

Clustering citizens attitudes towards migrants Traditional Humane Moderate opinion, they believe that migrants should be accepted, but only those that will easily fit into society. Their attitudes are more conservative and they have more sympathy if migrants are of the same religion High SOLIDARITY Show the greatest solidarity with migrants, have the most sympathy and think that the utmost should be done to help the migrants because they need assistance. Neutral and positive opinions about migrants significantly prevail in this group. 20 18 Frightened Low 30 Moderate High CONCERNS Very much concerned about their personal safety due to the increased influx of migrants, and they are especially concerned about the safety of women. They have strong fears that there are potential terrorists among migrants. To a large extent, this group of people believes that migrants would not fit into society, and that people should not even be sorry for them because they have enough money for their needs. TNS Medium Gallup Report prepared for UNDP in Serbia ©TNS 2016 16

Municipalities’ dealing with migrant crisis Concerns Solidarity How to deal with citizens’ concerns and fears? How to motivate citizens’ solidarity? Self-government Migrants What are priority needs of local self-governments and communities? How to help migrants/refugees? What is recommended for action in relation to the migrant crisis on local level? Allocation of resources to crime prevention and the safety of citizens. Improve level of citizens awareness through the media with a view to developing a higher degree of solidarity with migrants Moving away from fears and prejudices, towards understanding of human stories of migrants / refugees. Potential “leaders of change” towards positive opinion of migrants are “humane“, young people, and more educated citizens. Motivating personal donations, organizing public activities (collecting food and clothes) in citizens’ neighborhood. Donations promotion by representatives of local governments, organizing educations and public debates etc. Maintaining and improving functioning of the municipalities receiving greater influxes of migrants (especially Kanjiža and Šid). Allocation of financial, technical and human resources for municipal infrastructure (water supply, sewage, waste disposal and transport). The provision of humanitarian aid to migrants (accommodation, food, clothing, medical care), with a special emphasis on vulnerable groups (women and children). Allocation of resources to health care (human resources and equipment), ensuring higher level of hygiene. TNS Medium Gallup Report prepared for UNDP in Serbia ©TNS 2016 7

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