Time Span Analysis David Attaway Time Span Analysis

Time Span Analysis David Attaway

Time Span Analysis Also known as Aoristic Analysis…

What is Aoristic? 1840 -50 Aorist… a + horistos “not” indefinite “limited/defined” indeterminate “without defined occurrence in time” Esri User Conference 2015 - Demo Theater: Time Span Analysis Dr. Jerry Ratcliffe, Temple University

Temporal Analysis! Probability Analysis? Spatial Temporal Analysis? Space Time Analysis! Esri User Conference 2015 - Demo Theater: Time Span Analysis Aoristic? Weighted Analysis?

To help with the confusion: Phewww Aoristic Time Span Analysis Yeaaa! Esri User Conference 2015 - Demo Theater: Time Span Analysis Thank God!

Formulas…. Data Entry with cell formatting: ddd m/d/yy h: mm AM/PM Hour End: =IF(MINUTE(F 2)<10, HOUR(F 2)+1) First Day’s Probability: =(ROUNDDOWN(A 2+1, 0)-A 2)/(B 2 -A 2) Simplified Day’s Between First and Last Day: the Process =(B 2 -A 2)-(ROUNDDOWN(A 2+1, 0)-A 2)-(B 2 -ROUNDDOWN(B 2, 0)) (Now in a Template) Weight: =MIN(1, 1/O 2) Days: =((M 4)-(L 4)) Hour Start: =HOUR(E 2) Day of week start: =TEXT(L 2, "ddd") Last Day’s Probability: =(B 2 -ROUNDDOWN(B 2, 0))/(B 2 -A 2) Weight per hour: =IF($K 2>=$J 2, IF(AND(Q$1>=$J 2, Q$1<=$K 2), $P 2, 0), IF(OR(Q$1<=$K 2, Q$1>=$J 2), $P 2, 0)) Esri User Conference 2015 - Demo Theater: Time Span Analysis

Park my car: April 12 th, 2014 8: 00 am Total of 8 Hours unattended… datetimestart datetimeend days hours weight 8/12/2014 8: 00 AM 8/12/2014 4: 00 PM 0. 33 Probability! Esri User Conference 2015 - Demo Theater: Time Span Analysis Notice my car is stolen April 12 th, 2014 4: 00 pm 8 0. 13 Weight!

Calculates the probability that an incident occurred at a location: Burglary 1: 1/1/2014 12: 00 AM to 1/2/2014 12: 00 AM Burglary 3: 1/1/2014 12: 00 AM to 1/1/2014 12: 00 PM Esri User Conference 2015 - Demo Theater: Time Span Analysis ***INCIDENT*** Burglary 2: 1/1/2014 6: 00 AM to 1/1/2014 6: 00 PM Burglary 4: 1/1/2014 3: 00 PM to 1/1/2014 4: 00 PM

Burglary 1: 4: 3: 2: 1/1/201412: 00 AM 12: 00 PM 6: 00 AM 3: 00 PM to 1/2/2014 1/1/201412: 00 AM 4: 00 PM 6: 00 PM Analysis POWER comes w/ many points for analysis!!! Totalofof 12 1 Hoursunattended… datetimestart datetimeend days hours weight 1/1/2014 12: 00 AM 1/1/2014 12: 00 PM 0. 5 12 0. 08 1/1/2014 6: 00 AM 1/1/2014 6: 00 PM 0. 5 12 0. 08 1/1/2014 12: 00 PM 1/2/2014 12: 00 AM 0. 5 12 0. 08 1/1/2014 3: 00 PM 1/1/2014 4: 00 PM 0. 04 1 1. 0 Weight! Probability! Esri User Conference 2015 - Demo Theater: Time Span Analysis

Gives you…. Search Blocks of Equal Duration 12: 00 AM Burglary 1 Probability Esri User Conference 2015 - Demo Theater: Time Span Analysis 12: 00 AM 2 3 4 . 25 . 50 Burglary 4 Aoristic Sum 6: 00 PM 1 Burglary 2 Burglary 3 12: 00 PM 6: 00 AM 1. 0. 75 1. 25 1. 75 . 25 18% 31% 43% 6%

Probability and Weight Esri User Conference 2015 - Demo Theater: Time Span Analysis

Demo David Attaway

Crime Incidents – Southern California (All Types) Map Pin Map of last 3 months Symbolized by type UNCLASSIFIED//DEMO USE ONLY

Burglary Thefts Time Reported - Southern California Distribution of Residential burglary The times are divided into: • Morning*, • Afternoon*, • Evening*, • and Night* (four 6 -hr intervals). *(The times of day represent the time in which the Map OHS Auto Thefts Morning (06 -12) Morning Map OHS Auto Thefts Afternoon (12 -18) Afternoon vehicle theft was discovered) Residential burglary reporting is highest in the Afternoon (12001800). Map OHS Auto Thefts Night (00 -06) Evening UNCLASSIFIED//DEMO USE ONLY Night

Time Span Analysis Residential Burglary The greatest probability of times when the residential burglaries: • Between 12 – 1 pm (1200 – 1300) and • 5 pm – 6 pm (1700 – 1800). UNCLASSIFIED//DEMO USE ONLY

Want to learn more? • Documentation - Perform Time Span Analysis: http: //solutions. arcgis. com/intelligence/exploitation-analysis/ - Link near the bottom of page – “Perform Time Span Analysis” - • Related Esri Training and Tutorials - Time Span Analysis Template - Additional Location to download: - Time. Span. Analysis_1_0_0_for_Arc. GIS 10_2. zip Get more information on Time Span Analysis…