Thinking fast and slow Daniel Kahneman 2011 Winner

Thinking fast and slow Daniel Kahneman 2011 Winner of 2002 Nobel prize for economics

Old view of rationality • In the mid 20 th century people were thought to be generally rational

Old view of rationality • In the mid 20 th century people were thought to be generally rational • Strong emotions interfere with rationality

Old view of rationality • In the mid 20 th century people were thought to be generally rational • Strong emotions cause interfere with rationality Ayn Rand – Everything can be decided by logic and reason

21 st Century Neuroscience Technology advances changed everything: • FMRI scanning

21 st Century Neuroscience Technology advances: • FMRI scanning • new ways of measuring unconscious behaviour…

21 st Century Neuroscience Technology advances: • FMRI scanning • new ways of measuring unconscious behavior… reversed 20 th century view

Strangers to ourselves Timothy Wilson Unconscious does most of our thinking and decision-making

Strangers to ourselves Timothy Wilson Unconscious does most of our thinking and decision-making Unconscious: “mental processes that are inaccessible to consciousness but that influence judgment, feelings or behavior. ”

The illusion of control • Mr. Thompson (Oliver Sacks): Korsakoff’s syndrome: organic amnesia

The illusion of control • Mr. Thompson (Oliver Sacks): organic amnesia Not a problem! Invents new reality for every new incident – nothing is the matter!

The illusion of control • Mr. Thompson (Oliver Sacks): organic amnesia Not a problem! Invents new reality for every new incident – nothing is the matter! • Post hypnotic suggestion

The illusion of control We have at least two personalities • Personality assessments: conscious unconscious

The illusion of control We have at least two personalities • Personality assessments: conscious unconscious Split brain patients …confabulation

System 1 thinking Instantaneous, generated unconsciously.

System 1 thinking Instantaneous. Generated unconsciously: experiences genetics practice

System 1 thinking Instantaneous. Generated unconsciously: experiences genetics practice defended or acted upon by System 2 conscious brain (prefrontal cortex)

System 2 Consciousness is the press secretary – not the President

Attention & Effort System 2(consciousness) is the supporting actor who thinks he’s the hero

Attention & Effort System 2(consciousness) is the supporting actor who thinks he’s the hero Its operations are effortful and it is lazy

System 2: slow thinking • Deliberate • Hard work • Orderly Needs to be activated

System 2 – slow thinking is very important • Monitors the appropriateness of your behavior in a social situation

System 2 – slow thinking • Monitors the appropriateness of your behavior in a social situation • Thinks ahead to long term consequences – eg of not exercising, over-eating etc

System 2 – slow thinking • Monitor the appropriateness of your behavior in a social situation • Thinks ahead to long term consequences – eg of not exercising, over-eating etc • Check the validity of a complex logical argument

System 1 System 2 Both active when awake Automatically generates suggestions Intuitions Impulses

System 1 System 2 Both active when awake Automatically generates suggestions Intuitions Impulses Usually accepts suggestions Belief

System 1 System 2 Both active when awake Automatically generates suggestions Intuitions Impulses Usually accepts suggestions Belief Voluntary actions

Slow thinking = hard work • Self control • Cognitive effort • Consumes glucose

Slow thinking = hard work • Self control • Cognitive effort • Consumes glucose • Ego depletion (we become more suggestible)

Oscar Pistorius • February 15 th – news of shooting, System One reacts – a woman has been killed by a man – domestic violence

Oscar Pistorius • February 15 th – news of shooting, System One reacts – a woman has been killed by a man – domestic violence stories and rumors begin to circulate

Feeding the Associative machine • Oscar is trigger happy – Tasha’s

Feeding the Associative machine • Oscar is trigger happy – Tasha’s • Jealous of rugby playing boyfriend

Feeding the Associative machine • Oscar is trigger happy – Tasha’s • Jealous of rugby playing boyfriend • Screams of fight overheard

Feeding the Associative machine • Oscar is trigger happy – Tasha’s • Jealous of rugby playing boyfriend • Screams of fight overheard • Prosecuted for murder

The Associative Machine Spreading cascade of activity in the brain activating memories and emotions:

The Associative Machine Spreading cascade of activity in the brain activating memories and emotions: Likes Coherency • Each element is connected • Each supports and strengthens the others • Self reinforcing cognitive, emotional and physical pattern

Priming and associations Everything that happens around you effects the state of your memory

Priming Everything that happens around you effects the state of your memory • depending what you have just heard and seen you are ready to recognise and respond to associated objects and concepts

Priming Everything that happens around you effects the state of your memory • depending what you have just heard and seen you are ready to recognize and respond to associated objects and concepts SO _P

Cognitive Ease Repeated experience Ease

Cognitive Ease Repeated experience Feels familiar Ease

Cognitive Ease Repeated experience Clear display Feels familiar Ease

Cognitive Ease Repeated experience Feels familiar Clear display Feels effortless Ease

Cognitive Ease Repeated experience Feels familiar Clear display Feels effortless Primed idea Ease

Cognitive Ease Repeated experience Feels familiar Clear display Feels effortless Primed idea Ease Feels good

Cognitive Ease Repeated experience Feels familiar Clear display Feels effortless Primed idea Good mood (with friends Around braai) Ease Feels good

Cognitive Ease Repeated experience Feels familiar Clear display Feels effortless Primed idea Good mood (with friends Around braai) Ease Feels good Feels true

Anything that makes associations easier will bias beliefs Repetition makes people believe falsehood Familiarity is hard to distinguish from the truth

Minds made up As trial begins: • My dentist • My painting friend

The Halo Effect Gerrie. Nel Barry Roux If you like one thing about a person you have tendency to like everything (and vice versa)

Reinforcing our beliefs • System 2 (when lazy) looks for confirming evidence • We seek data compatible with our beliefs • Without evidence we attribute qualities which reinforce our view Gerrie and Barry help us!

What you see is all there is • System 1 constructs the best possible story incorporating the ideas that have been activated but does not (cannot) allow for info it doesn’t have.

Oscar • Whiney, pathetic, no self control, violent • Gentle, brave, handicapped, sports hero

System 1 • • • Exaggerates consistency Suppresses ambiguity Seeks patterns Believes in a coherent world Believes in causality Many facts of the world are due to Chance not causality

Lazy System 2 acts as biased lawyer • Searches for information consistent with existing beliefs • Apologist not critic • Fights in the court of public opinion to persuade others of system 1’s view

Availability cascade Media reports an event. Public reacts Details are exaggerated in media Public gets obsessed People who try to apply System 2 attract little attention mostly hostile • Social media exacerbates the cascade • • •

Judge Masipa and two assessors Applied slow thinking rigorously Listen to both sides Examine all evidence Study the case law

Masipa hands down her judgment It is based on undeniable facts

Masipa hands down her judgment It is based on undeniable facts Public outcry!

In Conclusion We think we arelogical, analytical and in control.

In Conclusion We think we arelogical, analytical and in control. This is a delusion!

In Conclusion We think we arelogical, analytical and in control. This is a delusion! Try to be more aware