Theresa May Brexit and the 2017 General Election
Theresa May, Brexit and the 2017 General Election: The Political Suicide of an Economic Policy Agenda
Presentation Organisation • Part One – Economic Policy Agenda prior to 2017 General Election • Objectives for Economic Policy • Narrative of ‘Works for all’ • Two case-studies of May government economic policy agenda • Part Two - Post 2017 General Election • Political Barriers • What if?
The Economic Policy Objectives of the May government 1. To deliver Brexit Ø ‘Brexit means Brexit’ Ø Hard Brexit 1. To develop a novel economic policy programme Ø Political reasons
Narrative – ‘Works for All’ • ‘We need a bold, new positive vision for the future of our country – a vision of a country that works for not a privileged few but for every one of us’ • ‘Burning Injustices’ • November 2016 speeches
Industrial Strategy Sectoral Dimensions Institutional Dimensions Spatial Dimensions “Works for All”
Fiscal Rules and Infrastructure Investment • New fiscal rules introduced Ø Looser fiscal policy Ø Allowed space for infrastructure investment Ø But not end of austerity • Infrastructure investment Ø National Productivity Investment Fund
Politics and the Queens Speech and Brexit • Queens speech emblematic of May’s political weakness. ØBreak down in relations with DUP ØBackbench rebellions ØUnwilling to take on traditional political allies • Impact of Brexit on economy and public finances expected to be serious negative shock. • Likely coupled with considerable rise in borrowing • Brings tensions with industrial strategy and infrastructure investment, both needs serious cash. • Conflict with fiscal rules.
- Slides: 8