Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution First ideas for

Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution: First ideas for scenarios Matti Vainio Clean Air for Europe programme Working Group on Target Setting and Policy Assessment 16 June 2004

Outline 4 Target based approach – Comply with current Air Quality legislation – No exceedance of critical loads and levels of acidification and eutrophication 4 Measures based approaches – Reducing ship emissions – Reducing road emissions 4 Measures effecting energy baseline

Target based approach 1. Comply with current Air Quality legislation (Framework Directive and Daughter Directives) – Only annual averages can be calculated – Including (an equivalent of) anthropogenic PM 2. 5 – Note that RAINS can model only urban background concentrations • RAINS could model what it would take to comply with urban background • Could one convert ”hot spots” to equivalent urban background?

Target based approach (2) 2. No exceedance of critical loads and levels of acidification and eutrophication – can we make it by 2020?

Optimizing on 4 Environment – Acidification • Accumulated exceedence – Eutrophication • Accumulated exceedence – Ozone • Annual average (AOT 40? ) … ozone flux? 4 Health – Meet EU limit values – Mortality due to O 3 (AOT 35) and PM 2. 5 (gap filling of lives saved) = Population weighted exposure to O 3 (AOT 35) and PM 2. 5 • Effect of aging population? • What would be the first step?

Markus 4 Impact assessment of policy packages – Cannot say anything about cost effectiveness 4 For T/S scoping for ambition level for pollutants – Need to get optimisation running – Meteorology

Measures based approach 4 In this meeting: focus is on transport sector – note that rail sector has been recently regulated up to 2015 and thus no new measures are considered – aviation emissions for Nox could be considered as part of measures reducing greenhouse gas emissions

Measures based approach (2) 4 Reducing ship emissions – First ideas for modelling 4 Reducing road emissions – Euro 5 for passenger cars – Euro 6 for heavy duty trucks – Stage 2 to reduce evaporative emissions from petrol filling stations

Measures based approach (3) 4 Transport sector (cont) – Measures to reduce emissions from “captive fleet” • Purchasing low emission buses in urban areas – e. g. through subsidies (Clean. Up) • Reducing emissions from existing vehicles (e. g. retrofitting buses) – Effect of refueling • Better maintenance – Using infrastructure/congestion charging

Effects of modifying the energy baseline 4 Effects on air pollution of the removal of energy subsidies – It would be good to know if this impact is large or small 4 Effects of climate change policies on energy baseline

Questions 4 We have tried to pick up “obvious” scenarios – Do you concur? 4 Should we define other scenarios already at this stage?