The Western Regional Air Partnership WRAP Improving Visibility

The Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP): Improving Visibility and Characterizing Transport Across the West California Desert Air Working Group Las Vegas, NV November 17, 2016 Tom Moore WRAP Air Quality Program Manager WESTAR Council

WESTAR-WRAP www. westar. org www. wrapair 2. org 2

2015 Ozone standard Ozone designations State recommendations by Oct. 1, 2016 EPA rulemaking by Oct. 2017 States use 2014 -16 preliminary design values EPA will be able to use 2017 preliminary data as well Modeling and Planning Transport SIPs due in 2018 from 50 states OAQPS conducting ozone source apportionment modeling using 2011 base year and 2023 projection year to provide national reference data, that states could use Marginal Nonattainment SIPs due 2023 Need to assess mobile sources and changes/variation in EGU and O&G sectors 3

Ozone trends at high elevation sites in Western U. S. 0. 25 Denver 4 th 8 Denver Crestline 4 th. Linear(Denver 4 th. O 3, 8) 1979 -2014 Linear(Crestline 4 th) & Crestline High 8 -hr Flat O 3 trend in Denver Need to understand roles of: 0. 2 – International and interstate transport 0. 15 – Wildfires 0. 1 – Stratospheric O 3 – Population growth – Oil and gas development – Seasonal variation 0. 05 0 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014 2024

Sources of O 3 in the Western U. S. O 3 Source Meteorological Characteristics Chemical characteristics CAA Controllable Local photochemical buildup Stagnation, high temperatures. CO/NOx/VOCs/PM consistent with local sources Y Regional transport from major source regions (e. g. , California) - currently not well characterized CO/NOy/VOCs consistent with upwind sources + chemistry Y Upper trop/Lower strat intrusions (UTLS) Post-cold front Broad spatial distribution (high O 3 in non-urban areas) Very dry air. N Very long-range transport (VLRT) Important at higher elevation. Subsidence and mixing into the boundary layer can enhance local concentrations. Dry. Can be hard to distinguish from UTLS without good chemical data. N Warm. Can be stagnant or not. Can be regional or large distant fires. Chemistry complex & different from typical urban. O 3 enhancements not always seen. O 3 -PM often poorly correlated. PM/CO/NOy always well correlated and ratios very different from typical urban. N Regional transport (domestic sources) Wildfire smoke 5

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Strategies for Improving the State of the Science for modeling O 3 in the western U. S. • More monitoring data to improve characterization of background O 3 and to evaluate the accuracy of model-based estimates of USB: o o o More measurements to improve characterization of vertical O 3 profiles. Network of O 3 LIDAR vertical profiles (NASA TOLNET pilot study) More ground based O 3 and precursor measurements in rural areas. • Perform comprehensive model evaluation studies using new monitoring data to assess contributions to background O 3. o o Do global models accurately estimate BC inflow? Do regional models accurately simulate natural sources of O 3 from wildfires and biogenic precursors? Do regional models accurately simulate vertical mixing of O 3? Need improved projections of future emissions for uncontrollable sources as well as trends in global O 3. • Increase state/federal & planner/researcher collaborations to improve modeling and data analysis for O 3 transport, wildfires, and stratospheric intrusion. 7

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Area Burned for U. S. Wildfires (NIFC) The last decade has seen a significant increase in the area burned. Approximately 70% of these fires are in the Western U. S. 9

2013 -15 Ozone and PM 2. 5 preliminary design values in excess of current NAAQS PRELIMINARY DESIGN VALUES by COUNTY* (AQS data 2013 – 2015) Alaska and Hawaii at reduced scale *Based on monitor with highest value in county 10

Average Visual Range Improvement. Five-year Average of Annual Averages for ALL IMPROVE SAMPLING DAYS show relative improvement in Visual Range at individual sites. Averages based on ~120 days of data collected annually. Percent Change in Visual Range (V. R. ) Baseline (2000 – 2004) vs. Most Recent Years (2010 – 2014) ALL SAMPLED DAYS (current V. R. 68 -149 miles) (current V. R. 53 -165 miles) Alaska and Hawaii at reduced scale (current V. R 36 -108 miles) 11

Benefits of NOx and SOx reductions Mt. Rainier, near Seattle Agua Tibia, near the Los Angeles Basin -44% Nitrate -37% Sulfate 73 miles 96 miles -55% Nitrate -49% Sulfate 44 miles 67 miles • After a decade of annual anthropogenic NOx and SOx reductions in nearby urban areas, particle Light Extinction and Visual Range improve more than 20% on “average” days at Class 1 areas. Theodore Roosevelt NP, western North Dakota Mesa Verde, near “Four Corners” -18% Nitrate -17% Sulfate 71 miles 79 miles -30% Nitrate -20% Sulfate 108 miles 127 miles • On “average” days at Class 1 Areas not near urban areas, there is still measurable benefit from ongoing BART reductions of NOx and SOx at large facilities relatively nearby. • Farther from urban areas and large anthropogenic sources, the smaller “controllable” anthropogenic emissions are overwhelmed by uncontrollable natural sources and international transport. 12

Typical Sources affecting Visibility 13

Conceptual Progress in Reducing Visibility Impairment 14

Preliminary Draft WESTAR-WRAP Work Plan for Regional Haze SIP Revision for 2028 Reasonable Progress Goals 15

WRAP RHR Comment Summary WRAP has sustained and substantial regional experience and expertise in crafting programs to address visibility improvement, and to protect and maintain the associated economic and quality of life values in the West. EPA would best ensure another round of successful planning by continuing to actively engage with the Partnership and provide funding to develop western visibility improvement strategies. 16

WRAP RHR Comment Summary Western states will achieve considerable efficiency though continuing the long-term implementation efforts and experience in assessing progress by the Partnership. Commensurate benefit would accrue to the EPA in the continuing effort to protect visibility and assure progress toward the national visibility goal by utilizing the WRAP experience and expertise. In addressing comments of our western air agencies and actively sustaining a regional planning process for those in the West, EPA should fully support the WRAP regional planning activities for mutual benefit in achieving national goals. 17

WRAP RHR Comment Summary The causes of visibility impairment are changing because of the increasing impacts on western Class I areas from uncontrollable and international air pollution sources at a time when western air agencies and EPA are reducing “controllable” anthropogenic emissions. As a result, there is an emerging need for integrated multi-pollutant regional analysis and planning for urban and rural western areas. It would benefit EPA and western air agencies to plan by investing now in western regional analysis and planning, together with coregulators and sister federal agencies, by funding the WRAP for regional haze planning. 18

WESTAR RHR Comments (from 30 -page detailed analysis) Reasonably Attributable Visibility Impairment (RAVI) provisions can be eliminated because they have been supplanted by the remaining provisions of the Regional Haze Program. Continued federal funding of WRAP activities is critical to a successful national program for improving visibility. Support focus on reducing manmade pollution, so it is essential that visibility protection planning incorporate the multifaceted elements of pollution control in the U. S. supplement the statutory four-factor analysis of controls with a demonstration that visibility improvement will result from the controls better integration of planning to take account of federal control measures, the more efficient our state regulatory development processes will be 2021 submittal date and change in Reasonable Progress reports supported 19

Reducing uncertainty for air quality planning Ozone background and transport Local vs. regional / less controllable vs. uncontrollable Regional Haze planning Enable choices of cost-effective controls that improve visibility Assessments of natural and uncontrollable – ever more important Exceptional Events - how important will these be? Resources to analyze EPA decides which to act on Sources causing these events are large and not infrequent Western O&G supply chain value proposition Price of commodities Regulatory programs increasing Fire and O&G impacts for regional haze and ozone Projections of all emissions for future year ozone & regional haze planning 20

Intermountain West Data Warehouse – Western Air Quality Study (IWDW-WAQS) Extend the geographic and technical scope of the IWDW-WAQS for air quality planning & management decision-making.

NPS Air Quality Conditions & Trends Tools Federal Land Manager Environmental Database (nps. gov) (FED) Partners: NPS/ARD Intermountain West Data Warehouse (IWDW) Partners: NPS, BLM, USFS, EPA, CO, WY, UT, NM Partners: NPS, USFS Databases Websites Hardware Software Southeastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Partners: EPA, AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN 22

IWDW Website Overview 23

IWDW-WAQS nested 36/12/4 km WRF/CAMx and CMAQ domains 36 km cells 12 km cells d 03 a 4 km cells Global model boundary conditions 24

WAQS Network Assessment Monitoring Sites • Modeling domain progression • AQS sites included in respective 4 km and 12 km domains State AQS O 3 monitoring sites Texas 76 Arizona 45 Colorado 33 Wyoming 33 Utah 31 Oklahoma 28 New Mexico 26 Kansas 11 North Dakota 9 Montana 8 Nebraska 6 South Dakota 6 Idaho 3 25

Technical Needs for Quasi-Natural, Largely Uncontrollable Sources affecting Western Air Quality Patterns and Impacts of Global Air Pollution Transport to the West Patterns and Impacts of Stratospheric Ozone Intrusions Tracking and Analysis of Fire and Smoke Impacts Tracking and Analysis of Dust Emissions due to a Changing Climate 26

Technical Needs for Global Transport/Background Patterns and Impacts of Global Air Pollution Transport to the West WRAP Regional Technical Center Ozone/multi-pollutant studies Regional Haze planning 27

Technical Needs for Fire and Smoke Impacts Exceptional Events regional analysis Fire Emissions Tracking System WRAP Fire Tools for analysis Tracking and Analysis of Fire and Smoke Impacts 28

Technical Needs for Ozone Intrusion Impacts Exceptional Events regional analysis Ozone planning WRAP Regional Technical Center Patterns and Impacts of Stratospheric Ozone Intrusions 29

Technical Needs for Dust Emissions Exceptional Events regional analysis Regional Haze planning WRAP Regional Technical Center Tracking and Analysis of Dust Emissions due to a Changing Climate 30

Exceptional Events and Regional Technical Needs affecting Western Air Quality Patterns and Impacts of Global Air Pollution Transport to the West Patterns and Impacts of Stratospheric Ozone Intrusions - WRAP Regional Technical Center + - FETS & Fire Tools - planning support - analysis of regional impacts Tracking and Analysis of Fire and Smoke Impacts Tracking and Analysis of Dust Emissions due to a Changing Climate 31

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