The Use of Statistical Data in Treasury Publications

The Use of Statistical Data in Treasury Publications Economic Analysis Directorate (FS Treasury)

PRESENTATION LAYOUT » » » » Background on the Directorate Socio-economic review & outlook (SERO) Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) Provincial Economic Review & Outlook (PERO) Quarterly Labour Market Review (QLMR) Other outputs Data challenges

Background on the Directorate • The Directorate Economic Analysis is one of the four directorates within the chief directorate of Sustainable Resource Management; • The primary purpose of the directorate is to provide the Provincial Government with cutting-edge socio-economic research; • The analysis emanating from the research output is intended to inform and guide fiscal policy development and the allocation of scarce public resources.

1. Socio-Economic Review & Outlook • • • Purpose: – Deeper understanding of the socio-economic state of the province and the associated challenges; – Ascertain the extent to which the lives of ordinary people in the Free State have changed since the decentralization of fiscal policy; – Planning and Monitoring & Evaluation tool; – Influence the allocation of scarce resources. Structure of the publication – Chapter 1: Demographics – Chapter 2: Poverty, Quality of Life & Access to basic services (& infrastructure) – Chapter 3: Education – Chapter 4: Health – Chapter 5: Labour – Chapter 6: Economy Main sources of data – Stats SA (Census, Mid-year population estimates, Income & expenditure survey, GDP, QLFS, etc) – Global Insight (Re. X)

Example of Indicators Percentage of households living in informal settlements Discouraged work-seekers by province Percentage of households using bucket toilets or which have no toilet facility Percentage of households with access to piped water in a dwelling

2. MEDIUM TERM BUDGET POLICY STAMENT (MTBPS) • Purpose – It summarizes government’s perspective on the broad economic outlook for the coming three years, provides information on budget allocations and priorities over the same period, and indicates how the intended expenditure will be financed – The MTBPS can be regarded as the ‘making public’ of the MTEF. As a pre-budget release, it contributes in general terms to fiscal transparency, and helps ensure that the budget legislatures votes on is without surprises or shocks. – Thus, the MTBPS is above all an opportunity for non-executive stakeholders in public budgeting to engage with the broader trends of the budget and to ask broader questions concerning the extent to which budgeting is aligned with the policies of government and is achieving the objectives of those policies. • Sources of data – Various source – Stats SA (GDP & QLFS for chapter on Economic performance & outlook)

Example of Indicators GDP Growth Employment by province 2011 Q 2 2012 Q 1 Western Cape 1805 Eastern Cape Northern Cape Province qrt -to-qrt yr-on-yr percentage change 2012 Q 2 qrt -to-qrt change 1847 1815 -32 -1. 7 0. 6 1309 1279 1298 19 1. 5 -0. 8 264 286 281 -5 -1. 7 6. 4 (000) % Free State 772 737 728 -9 -1. 2 -5. 7 Kwa. Zulu Natal 2500 2519 2520 1 0. 0 0. 8 North West 691 704 709 5 0. 7 -2. 6 Gauteng 3965 4140 4125 -15 -0. 4 4 Mpumalanga 884 913 953 40 4. 4 7. 8 Limpopo 936 996 1018 22 2. 2 8. 8

3. PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK (PERO) • Purpose: – The Provincial Economic Review and Outlook (PERO) provides an in-depth analysis of the provincial economy and places specific emphasis on sectoral performance and labour market issues. • Structure of the publication – Chapter 1: Global macroeconomic perspective – Chapter 2: Free State economic performance and outlook – Chapter 3: Free State labour market – Chapter 4: Free State municipal economies in perspective • Main source of data: – Stats SA (GDP, QLFS, etc) – Global Insight (Re. X)

Example of Indicators Employment Unemployment Source: Stats SA, LFS, Sept 2009; QLFS, Sept 2010, Sept 2012 2011 2010 2008 2007 2006 2005 2009 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Labour Absorption rate 2008 Unemployment rate 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 2007 10 2006 20 2005 30 2004 40 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 2000 50 2004 Number of discouraged workers Unemployment and Absorption rates 60 2003 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 660 2003 710 2002 760 2002 810 2001 860 2001 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 910

4. FREE STATE QUARTERLY LABOUR MARKET REVIEW (QLMR) • Purpose: – Give a detailed update of the labour market trends in the Free State Province on a quarterly basis. – By analyzing the labour market intensively, decision-makers can develop policies aimed at reducing unemployment, support vulnerable workers, promote youth development, eliminate wastage and develop responsive education and training systems • Source of date: – Stats SA (QLFS)

Example of Indicators % Unemployment by province 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Q 2: 2012 Q 1: 2013 Q 2: 2013 LP 20, 2 20, 3 18, 1 KZ 19, 8 21, 1 22, 7 WC 23, 2 23, 3 24, 0 GP 25, 4 25, 2 25, 0 RSA 24, 9 25, 2 25, 6 NW 26, 2 26, 5 27, 1 NC 29, 9 29, 6 29, 0 MP 28, 9 29, 4 EC 28, 6 30, 2 30, 8 FS 32, 9 31, 6 33, 1 Characteristics of the not economically active 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Not economically active Apr-Jun 2012 799 Apr-Jun 2013 761 Student Home-maker 360 357 95 71 Illness/disability 139 125 Too old/young to Discouraged work seekers 82 82 85 67 Other 42 57

OTHER OUTPUTS • • • FFC’s Equitable Share Formula inputs Section 3 of Budget Statement 1 Socio-economic Database Research Papers MEC Soci 0 -economic updates

DATA CHALLENGES • Provincial GDP – Frequency – Time lag • Local Municipal level data

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