The Unthinkable Disaster Arc 1 Denial 2 Deliberation

The Unthinkable

Disaster Arc: 1. Denial 2. Deliberation 3. Action

Denial

Why Denial? Why do we go into denial? ● Our meaning-making system (patterns) is failing us ○ We just default to our normal routine ● Peer pressure ○ No one wants to be the one who freaks out

Purpose of Denial ● Gather information ○ Sometimes objects (whether they’re useful or not) ● Keep people calm enough to escape ○ If you face the full terror of the situation, you might not be able to handle it

Dangers of Denial ● You might wait too long to save yourself ● Especially a problem for the elderly ○ The elderly have long experience with many disasters ○ Might think that they’re safer than they actually are

Conclusion ● Denial can help you cope with the fear so that you can escape ● BUT it can make you delay until it’s too late to escape

Risk Calculation

Risk Calculation ● Definition: ability of a person to predict the consequences of their actions and plan ahead accordingly ● Humans aren’t good at it ○ Most of history: Humans lived in a world with simple, direct consequences ○ Now, our world is extremely connected, and the outcomes of our decisions are hard to predict

What Does This Have to Do with Disaster? ● We’re bad at understanding where the real risk lies ● Unusual disasters are more frightening than usual ones ○ Car crashes are less frightening than plane crashes ● Conclusion: You won’t fear what you should

Deliberation

Deliberation ● Meaning: Thinking about a problem on your own/talking about it with other people ● Milling: People gathering together to discuss during disaster ● Purposes: ○ Gather information on what to do ○ Get comfort (we’re social animals)

Crowd Behavior

Crowd Behavior ● People are polite, kind, and follow the rules ● Help each other if possible ○ 9/11: Employees carried their disabled coworkers downstairs

Panic ● Uncommon ○ There is ZERO upside to it ● Crowds don’t tolerate it ● But it does happen under certain conditions

Individual Panic Individuals panic under three conditions 1. They feel like they MIGHT be stuck (it’s the uncertainty that gets them) 2. They feel helpless 3. They feel totally alone

Panic of the Crowd ● It’s a space issue ● Humans need 1 square yard of space ○ Otherwise, they can’t resist the movement of the crowd ● Too many people + not enough space + going too fast = panic of the crowd ● Event planners like to blame the crowd ○ It was poor planning and they know it

Taking Action

Taking Action ● Final step in Disaster Survival Arc is taking action ● Action is informed by fear

Fear ● Ancient: We share many fear responses with other animals ○ Example: Goosebumps ● Fear is physical: Hormones and chemicals ● Advantages to fear ○ Faster reflexes, increased strength, slower bleeding ● Disadvantages: ○ Fear can shut down your ability to make complex decisions. . . like how to unbuckle your seatbelt

Freezing ● It’s fight, flight, or freeze ● Freezing can be useful ○ If you can’t escape, freezing may be all you can do ● Downsides ○ Other people might not understand, and judge you ○ Not well-adapted to modern problems ■ Estonia: 852 passengers drowned, most of them froze

What Can You Do?

What Can You Do? ● Disaster plans are not written with ordinary people in mind ○ Experts do not trust you ● Learn about the most common disasters in your area ○ Take small, practical steps