THE ULTIMATE HIGH GROUND SPACE AND THE COLD

THE ULTIMATE HIGH GROUND: SPACE AND THE COLD WAR GERALD M. STEINBERG BAR ILAN UNIVERSITY RAMAT GAN, ISRAEL

RAND’S “PROJECT 1947” WORLD CIRCLING SPACESHIP

MILITARY USES OF SPACE 1) Imaging and Reconnaissance Satellites 2) Communication Satellites 3) Navigation satellites (GPS) 4) Space-based weapons 5) Anti-satellites

RECONNAISSANCE SATELLITES DURING THE COLD WAR

Corona (Keyhole) achievements: Catalog of Soviet air defense and antiballistic missile sites Nuclear weapons-related facilities and submarine bases Military installations in China and Eastern Europe Images of the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, and Dimona Helped NASA develop a safe means of recovering manned spacecraft Imaging systems basis for cameras carried on Lunar Orbiters (1966 -67).

SPACE IMAGING AND THE “MISSILE GAP” 13 attempts failed ; Discoverer 14 - Aug. 18, 1960 Photos of Soviet Plesetsk base: "It proved conclusively that the Soviets ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) arsenal did not number in the hundreds, as widely feared, but rather amounted to somewhere between 25 and 50 ".

SATELLITES REPLACED U-2

Moscow and Severodinsk Shipyard

American reconnaissance satellite photo showing the Missile Assembly Building at the Soviet Launch Complex J. This building was where the massive Soviet moon rocket was assembled. (credit: Dwayne A. Day)

Soviet Imaging and Reconsats Generic Cosmos series – 1962 - ? Used also to monitor China, Middle East conflicts, other crisis regions Zenith – (also designated as Cosmos) – included ELINT RORSAT - Radar-equipped Ocean Reconnaissance SATellite

IMAGING SATELLITES: GREATEST “SECRETS” OF THE COLD WAR No mention in official statements for many years Highly classified in CIA, NSA, NRO, & NIMA US officials would find open sources when necessary First publication in 1981 due to security breech Later US declassification did not help stability, particularly in the Middle East

1963 -1969: Evolution of tacit agreement on anti-satellites

ROLE OF SATELLITE IMAGING IN STRATEGIC STABILITY AND TREATY VERIFICATION 1972 SALT/ABM TREATIES CONFIRMED PRINCIPLE OF “NON-INTERFERENCE WITH NATIONAL TECHINCAL MEANS OF VERIFICATION”

CAPABILITIES OF OTHER COUNTRIES China EU/NATO- Germany / France / UK / Spain India Israel Japan Iran? South Korea Egypt ?

U. S. PDD 23 (1994) • CHANGING IN LICENSING PROCEDURES REFLECTED DOMINANCE OF COMMERCIAL ISSUES. • SECURITY DIMENSION SECONDARY • LIMITED AND STRENGTHENED IN SUBSEQUENT POLICY STATEMENTS AND LICENSING PROCEDURES (2003)

DUAL-USE ULTRA-HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGING SATELLITES

JERUSALEM Ikonos 2/15/2001 Coordinates: 31 30 N, 34 35 E. 2 Meter

VATICAN -- QUICKBIRD

Largest UHR imaging market is military/security sector (over 90%) Sales campaigns for UHR satellite systems and services emphasize military/security market

POTENTIAL SUPPLIERS US--IKONOS, Quickbird, Orb. Image France/EU: SPOT 5 2. 5 m (Pan); Helios Israel- EROS Canada - Radarsat 2 Russia RESURS India – IRS Japan – ALOS Others

EROS IMAGE OF SEOUL

Natanz - Digital Global

Kalaye Electric - Near Teheran

YONGBYON, N. KOREA DECLASSIFIED U. S. IMAGE

NO-DONG LAUNCH SITE IKONOS 1 M IMAGE

IKONOS IMAGE OF NODONG LAUNCH SITE (2)

FAS IMAGES OF CHINESE AIR FORCE BASE

QUICKBIRD IMAGE OF FALLUJA -- 2004

GOOGLE EARTH

COLD WAR LESSONS: TRANSPARENCY = STABILITY? • TRANSPARENCY CAN BE USED TO MONITOR ARMS CONTROL AGREEMENTS IN STABLE REGION OR • CAN PROVIDE INTELLIGENCE INFORMATION FOR A FIRST STRIKE AND OTHER AGGRESSIVE ACTION IN UNSTABLE REGIONS

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