THE SPIRAL OF SILENCE AND THE ASYLUM CRISIS

THE SPIRAL OF SILENCE AND THE ASYLUM CRISIS IN EUROPE BENGT JOHANSSON & TOMAS ODÉN

The asylum crisis in the Swedish context • Sweden have (had) a generous asylum regime – “open-door policy” • Swedes are more positive to immigrants and welcoming refugees compared to citizens in the rest of Europe • 10 000 refugees arrived every week to Sweden in the fall of 2015 • Official estimates claimed 190 000 would seek asylum in Sweden 2015 • Estimates are (Migration Agency) somewhere between 70 000 and • 140 000 asylum seekers in 2016

The rise of the Swedish Democratic Party

Survey • LORE (Laboratory of Opinion Research, University of Gothenburg) • Citizen Panel (60 000 respondents) • Web questionnaires • November 2015 • Questions about the asylum crisis: evaluation of the news media coverage and government actions, opinions about the asylum crisis, and personal experience of the asylum crisis.

The Spiral of Silence The theory asserts that a person is less likely to voice and opinion on a topic of morality if one feels that one is in the minority for fear of reprisal or isolation from the majority Elisabeth Noelle-Neuman

Example of spiral of silence syndroms Prevailing public opinion Willingness to speak out Silence

ARE PEOPLE AFRAID OF EXPRESSING OPINIONS ABOUT THE ASYLUM CRISIS?

Can you talk honestly about the asylum crisis? To a very large extent To a large extent Neither or To a small extent To very small extent Percent N Workmates Family & & friends schoolmates Strangers 70 40 20 22 32 29 4 12 19 3 10 15 1 6 17 100 100 1572 1567 1572

Are everyone quiet? AGE Percieved public opinion Personal experience Gender Education Political ideology

Speak honestly among……. Personal experience Age Positive evaluation of media coverage …family & friends Gender Education Leftist

Speak honestly among……. Personal experience Age Positive evaluation of media coverage …work- & schoolmates Gender High education Leftist

Speak honestly among……. Personal experience Young Gender Positive evaluation of media coverage …strangers High education Leftist

What have we learned? • We are generally afraid of being social isolated and suppress our attitudes, especially when we talk to people we don’t know so well. • Young people and highly educated are more willing to express their opinions when they are in a conversation with people outside family and friends. • Regardless everything else – people with leftist opinions tend are more willing to speak out their opinion • Regardless everything else – people who with a positive evaluation of the media coverage of the asylum crisis are more willing to speak out their opinion

The perception of what is believed to be the majority opinion of the asylum crisis leads to strong fear of expressing opinions independent who you talk to.

Changed policy Identity checks would be imposed on all modes of transport, and the right to bring families to Sweden would be severely restricted

APRIL 2016!

Thank you! Bengt Johansson Professor in Journalism and Mass Communication University of Gothenburg bengt. johansson@jmg. gu. se