The South American Monsoon System Recent Evolution and

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 October 2014 For more information, visit: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts •

Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

Highlights • 30 -day rainfall deficits continue over portions of northern South America and

Highlights • 30 -day rainfall deficits continue over portions of northern South America and southeastern Brazil. • During the last 7 days (29 Sep. -5 Oct. 2014), below-average precipitation was observed over Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, and portions of central and southeastern Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over northern Peru, central Argentina, and portions of southern Brazil. • For 6 -12 October 2014, below-average precipitation is predicted for the southern Amazon Basin , and central and southeastern Brazil. Aboveaverage precipitation is predicted for western Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, and most of Peru.

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, and portions of central and southeastern Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over northern Peru, central Argentina, and portions of southern Brazil.

Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30

Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over the Amazon Basin, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, and portions of southeastern Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over southern Paraguay, Uruguay and portions of eastern Argentina.

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau BP • 90 -day rainfall

Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau BP • 90 -day rainfall deficits are present over the southern Amazon Basin and portions of the Brazilian Plateau. • 90 -day near average over southern Brazil.

Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies SSTs are above average in the equatorial Pacific

Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies SSTs are above average in the equatorial Pacific and near average in most of the equatorial Atlantic. (For details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below. ) A weekly Power. Point summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http: //www. cpc. noaa. gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso. shtml

Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days A • Upper panels: During the period of 27

Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days A • Upper panels: During the period of 27 Sep. -3 Oct. 2014, anomalous anticyclonic circulation (center indicated by red A) was observed over southeastern South America. • Lower panels: Anomalous rising motion occurred over southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and northeastern Argentina. Anomalous sinking motion occurred over the northern and eastern Amazon Basin. • Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- thannormal conditions. • Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

925 -h. Pa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days During the 7

925 -h. Pa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days During the 7 -day period 27 Sep. -3 Oct. 2014, temperatures were above average over central and southeastern Brazil, and below average over eastern Argentina. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925 -h. Pa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925 -h. Pa are masked out.

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 6 October 2014 – Days 1 -7

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 6 October 2014 – Days 1 -7 Total Note: Bias correction based on last 30 -day forecast error. Anomaly

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 6 October 2014 – Days 8 -14

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 6 October 2014 – Days 8 -14 Total Note: Bias correction based on last 30 -day forecast error. Anomaly

NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1 -7 (6 -12 October 2014), below-average precipitation

NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1 -7 (6 -12 October 2014), below-average precipitation is predicted for the southern Amazon Basin , and central and southeastern Brazil. Above-average precipitation is predicted for western Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, and most of Peru. • For Days 8 -14 (13 -19 October 2014), above-average precipitation is predicted for Venezuela, Colombia, Ecudor, Peru, Uruguay and southern Brazil. Below-average precipitation is predicted for the southern Amazon Basin, and central and southeastern Brazil.

Forecast Verification Forecast from 22 September 2014 Valid for 29 Sep. -5 Oct. 2014

Forecast Verification Forecast from 22 September 2014 Valid for 29 Sep. -5 Oct. 2014 Forecast from 29 September 2014 Valid for 29 Sep. -5 Oct. 2014 Not available Observed 29 Sep. -5 Oct. 2014

Climatology Rainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

Climatology Rainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

Precipitation Climatology

Precipitation Climatology

Precipitation Climatology Animation

Precipitation Climatology Animation