The Scientific Method Objectives What is the scientific

The Scientific Method

Objectives • • • What is the scientific method? What does the scientific method assume? Does the scientific method work? What is not a scientific argument? Does astrology follow the scientific method? Design tests to see if certain (pseudoscientific) practices are legitimate.

What is science? Science is a tool.

Multiple Choice Quiz Medicine: “I have high cholesterol, what should I do? ” A. Take cholesterol lowering medication. B. Consult your astrologer. C. Pray to the god Baal and sacrifice a goat.

The Scientific Method 1. Observe an event. 2. Develop a model (or hypothesis) which makes a prediction. model 3. Test the prediction. 4. Observe the result. 5. Revise the hypothesis. test 6. Repeat as needed. 7. A successful hypothesis becomes a Scientific Theory.

t 100 Medical Science patient s these chemi cals,

Everyday Science Scientif Car ic Repair Method Observ Engine

Everyday Use (matter of taste) Scienti Making fic Spaghett Metho i Sauce d

Repeatability • A successful theory is repeatable. – By you – By anyone • Examples: – Cold Fusion (1989) – Ecstasy (Science, 2003) • http: //www. ncbi. nlm. nih. go v/pmc/articles/PMC 194116 / – Falling in a vacuum

Requirements • Objective reality – Shared metaphysic • Constant Laws of Nature – What happens here, happens there. – What happened yesterday will happen tomorrow. • The Cosmos is knowable.

Does it work? • Scientific Method is a tool. • Does this tool work? – Life expectancy – Mortality rates • Are there better tools?

Theories • • • So: a theory is a highly successful hypothesis. All hypotheses make predictions. All theories can be tested. Result: Any scientific theory is subject to change as our ability to make tests, or make observations of a test’s results, improves with time.

Non-scientific Theories • Make no predictions • Un-testable • Can’t be falsified

I often hear • “You can’t prove it not to be true” • “I’m entitled to my own facts” • “This is true for me” – Group question. What sorts of things fall under this domain?

Non-scientific Theories • Car won’t work? Aliens drained the battery. • Spaghetti is bland? You were meant to eat bland food. • Car won’t work? Gods must be angry. • Spaghetti is bland? At the instant of tasting, tongue is transported to alternate dimension where all flavors are rendered nullified. Happens instantaneously.

Non-scientific Theories • The chain of events needed for life to arise is too complicated to have happened by chance, a divine intelligence must therefore have caused life to arise (Intelligent Design). • Face on Mars. Viking Orbiter (1976) Mars Global Surveyor (1998)

Falsifiability What is falsifiability and why does it matter? Any guesses?

skepticwiki “Falsifiability is the property of a hypothesis, conjecture, or theory, that it can be demonstrated to be false. According to the very influential philosopher of science Sir Karl Popper, a claim cannot be "scientific" (or subject to scientific inquiry) unless it is falsifiable. ” What does this mean?

Test Question The next slides are very important. We will have a test question on the material here.

Test Design How does one design tests to differentiate makebelieveland* from reality? *Makebelieveland is what’s in your head. Reality exists outside of your head, independent of your beliefs.

Test Design II • Note the exact claim – Write it down • Develop an hypothesis – What’s being tested? • Control for variables – Note the variables that cannot be controlled for • (Financial considerations in study design)

Test Design III Double Blind “…some of the persons involved are prevented from knowing certain information that might lead to conscious or unconscious bias on their part” thus “invalidating the results”.

Test Design IV: Double Blind Cont’d For example, when asking consumers to compare the tastes of different brands of a product, the identities of the latter should be concealed — otherwise consumers will generally tend to prefer the brand they are familiar with. Similarly, when evaluating the effectiveness of a medical drug, both the patients and the doctors who administer the drug may be kept in the dark about the dosage being applied in each case — to forestall any chance of a placebo effect, observer bias, or conscious deception.

Test Design V: Control Group “An experiment which uses controls is called a controlled experiment, and usually separates research subjects into two groups: An experimental group and a control group. The control group is practically identical to the treatment group, except for the single variable of interest whose effect is being tested”. Group question: Why would one want to do this?

Test Design VI Repeat, etc.

Ethics • Ethics when working with human subjects • IRB

My Research • Critical Thinking • Medicine • Prison

Practice: Group Discussion Design a test for Dousing Rods. Be specific. Be Detailed. Be careful. Be deliberate. Be methodical. Use the scientific method. Step-by-step. Where should we start? (Hint: Always start with the claim).

Team Exercise: Designing Tests You have 12 minutes to design a detailed test to falsify at least two items on the next slide. After you’ve completed one item, move to the next one on the list. Explain exactly how you’d design the test and exactly what it would entail. What claim are you testing? What constitutes a pass? (Hint: Possible test question).

• • • • Astrology The Easter bunny Tarot cards Reincarnation Palm reading Telekinesis Clairvoyance Mind reading Alien abduction Ghosts Speaking with the dead Invisible beings coexisting with us Substance X is deadly to humans

Present Your Findings • Use the board • Details and specifics

Psychic with babies • http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=ya. Vp 3 ZOoz. A&feature=player_embedde d • Extraordinary People: The Million Dollar Mind Reader (1/5)

Psychic Trick • Objects give off psychic energy • I’ll do a common psychic trick • Your job: Design a test that you will actually use to evaluate the claim. • Catch: You have no money.

Exchange Ideas to Test • With a team, you have 7 minutes to develop a comprehensive test that would conclusively demonstrate the truth or falsity of the claim. • Be prepared to present your findings. • Go!

Challenge your classmates! • With your team, come up with two claims that you’d like another team to evaluate. Be specific. 3 Minutes. • Conceptualize it like this: Someone’s developed an extraordinary product that they want tested. What’s the product? What’s the claim? • E. g. , “When any toothpaste comes out of our Cat-tube. TM, people will have whiter teeth when they brush. ”

Exchange Ideas to Test • With a team, you have 7 minutes to develop a comprehensive test that would conclusively demonstrate the truth or falsity of the claim. • Be prepared to present your findings. • Go!

Present Your Findings • Use the board • Details and specifics

Get with your team again and detail some of the mistakes you could have made. E. g. , what variables did you fail to control for? What interfered with the accuracy of the test? What did you forget? How can you correct these mistakes? You have only 3 minutes. Mistakes

• Why is learning how to test hypotheses important? • Why does it matter? • Why would someone want to know how to do this? • Do non-scientists need to know this? • What is the consequence of not knowing how to do this? Why

http: //news. bbc. co. uk/2/hi/programmes/ne wsnight/8471187. stm (Video link is also on the ppt “What’s the harm? ”

Alternative Medicine

Not a Test • http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=uv 8 M ozi 6 TAI&feature=player_embedded#! • “Psychic Medium reading with Jane Hamilton” on the thumb drive • Why is this not a legitimate test?

Also Not A Test • http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=Mh. KJ 4 qe 4 ov. U&feature=related • “TELEPATHY PSYCHIC TESTS” on the thumb drive • Why is this not a legitimate test?

Ghosts There a great many books devoted to…

“Based on information revealed through spirit communicators and those who have had near-death experiences, this volume by a renowned medium and bestselling author answers many questions about life after death. Examine telepathy, the tunnel of light, great love, guardian angels, healing sleep, past lives, soul mates, ghosts, and more. Meditation exercises help to connect with spirit guides and raise consciousness to overcome the fear of death, be inspired to make the best of life on Earth and prepare for the afterlife. ”

Amazon. com review “I couldent put the book down, it was a mine of essential information, down to earth explanations, it was a breath of fresh air. Never have i been so engrossed in a book. If all spiritualist chirches had a copy they would benefit greatly from reading it, as it makes a change to have things explained to you simply and truthfully in a modern and up to date way , instead of the long winded clap trap some of us endure. The authour should be commended for writing such a fantastic book and for creating such an addictive website. I look forward to reading more books from him and cannot thank him enough, as the book has taught me more in a day than i have learnt from reading other books on Spiritualism in three decades. ”

“An excellent book which I feel gives a very accurate and plausible view of angels, after death communication and the afterlife. I emailed Jacky a true story that happened to me and is recorded in the book exactly how it happened. The stories are true. ”

TV Shows too

An Important Aside • You should always be prepared to tell someone—even if it’s only yourself— exactly what evidence you’d need to believe X. • Let’s do this with the next slide. Seven minute DQ. Start with two items and if you have time add more. • Also, why is this important? You tell me.

• • • • DQ: What Evidence Astrology The Easter bunny would you need to Tarot cards believe? Reincarnation Palm reading Telekinesis Clairvoyance Mind reading Alien abduction Ghosts Speaking with the dead Invisible beings coexisting with us Substance X is deadly to humans

Reiterate • Belief in things that are not true does not make one stupid. One needs training so that one can learn to distinguish truth from falsity. • This has nothing to do with intelligence.

Questions Any questions about anything?

Astrology and the President (TIME, May 16, 1988) -“The First Lady dabbled in astrology as far back as 1967. In 1981 [Joan] Quigley made Nancy a believer …. And from then on, no presidential public appearance was slated without the Friend's say-so. To this day, Nancy's Friend continues to influence the President's schedule. For the Reagan-Gorbachev Washington summit, she cast the charts of both men and determined that 2 p. m. on Dec. 8, 1987, was the most propitious moment for them to sign the intermediate-range nuclear forces treaty. At Nancy's behest, the entire summit was built around that hour. For the upcoming Moscow summit, Gorbachev's chart (he is a Pisces) has been recast alongside Reagan's (Aquarius). ” “Former White House Chief of Staff, Donald] Regan and others make a compelling case that in 1986 and 1987 astrological influence dramatically reduced the presidency's effectiveness, at least partly, by keeping Ronald Reagan under wraps for much of the time. Nancy's intrusions in the scheduling process, Regan said in an interview with TIME last week, ‘began to interfere with the normal conduct of the presidency. ’”

NOTE: This is not an original presentation. The information here has been personalized and developed, but it is not my own.