THE SCIENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE How Climate

THE SCIENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: How Climate Change May Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director of the University of Minnesota’s Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve

2012 Hottest on Record for the U. S. “It's perhaps no surprise that 2012 has been officially named the warmest year on record in the contiguous United States. The first decade of the 21 st century was the warmest on record…The average temperature was 55. 3 degrees F, or 3. 2 degrees F above the 20 th-century average. Last year also was second only to 1998 in terms of extreme climate, as measured by U. S. Climate Extremes Index, which takes into account factors like high temperatures, dry spells and rainy periods. ” - NBC News (reporting based on NOAA announcement of Jan. 8, 2013)

WHAT MAY HAPPEN TO MINNESOTA’S CLIMATE? HOW MAY CHANGES IN CLIMATE AFFECT MINNESOTA’S ECOSYSTEMS?

WELCOME TO LAKE SUPERIOR? Stock Photos

IT’S ALL ABOUT THE CLIMATE … CLIMATE is the prevailing weather conditions of a region averaged over long periods of time. Wikipedia

…AND THE BIOMES THAT RESULT NORTH AMERICA’S BIOMES A BIOME is a large land area characterized by a prevailing CLIMATE that supports a major ecological community type. Wikipedia

MINNESOTA’S BIOMES MN DNR Minnesota is unique in that it supports three major biomes, making it a grand ECOTONE… a transition zone between biomes.

WHERE GOES THE CLIMATE, SO GOES THE BIOMES…

CLIMATE & BIOME PATTERNS Pearson Education

TEMPERATUR E PRECIPITATIO N (Solar Radiation) (Amount & Timing) SOIL MOISTURE (Evapotranspiration)

GLOBAL BIOMES “SURVIVE & THRIVE” (Robert) U. S.

AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (U. S. ) “SURVIVE & THRIVE” TOLERANCE RANGES -20 o. F -14 o. F 0 o. F 30 o. F 41 o. F BOREAL FOREST 60 o. F 80 o. F 60 o. F 40 o. F DECIDUOUS 72 o. F 10 o. F GRASSLAND 80 o. F J. Corney

AVERAGE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (U. S. ) “SURVIVE & THRIVE” TOLERANCE RANGES 10 in. 20 in. 15 in. 26 in. BOREAL FOREST 25 in. 10 in. 35 in. GRASSLAND 45 in. 60 in. 40 in. DECIDUOUS FOREST 60 in. 35 in. J. Corney

CONTINENTAL U. S. BIOMES 66 cm (26 in. ) U. S. 5 o. C (41 o. F)

U. S. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES 51 o. F 42 o. F 39 o. F (1971 -2000) 42 o. F 45 o. F 51 o. F 54 o. F 48 o. F 51 o. F 62 o. F 54 o. F 64 o. F 72 o. F 58 o. F 68 o. F 62 o. F 64 o. F 72 o. F

N Boreal Sub-Arctic TEMPERATU RE U. S. : -26 -16 o. C (-14 -60 o. F) Ec o 1 (4 B to ne o. C 5 Sub-Tropical Temperate o F) U. S. : -12 -27 o. C (10 -80 o. F) S J. Corney U. S. : 2 -22 o. C (35 -72 o. F)

U. S. AVERAGE PRECIPITATION

(2 Semi-Mesic E Mesic J. Corney 66 c ne to m o Semi-Arid Ec W Arid 6 i n . ) PRECIPITATION 25 -87 cm (10 -35 in) 40 -100 cm (15 -40 in) 65 -150 cm (25 -60 in)

SOIL MOISTURE U. S. Estimated Water Budget Evapotranspiration 67% Surface Runoff 29% Consumptive Use 2% Groundwater Outflow 2% Wikipedia USGS

HEAT ENERGY “DRIVES” EVAPOTRANSPIRATION UCF. edu Water Vapor Pressure by Temperature Purdue. edu

MOISTURE RETAINED IN THE SOIL

U. S. “Pan” Evaporation Rates Wikipedia (a rough measure of Potential Evapotranspiration) NOAA

SOIL MOISTURE N e on ot Ec W S E J. Corney

TYPICAL U. S. DROUGHT CONDITIONS Hanson & Weltzin; NOAA data

NORTH AMERICA’S PRAIRIE-FOREST BORDER ?

WHAT IS MINNESOT A’SCURRE NT (Averaged over the CLIMATE? past 115 years) Minnesota DNR State Climatology Office TEMPERATURE: 41 o. F annual avg. PRECIPITATION: 26 in. annual avg. DO THESE AVERAGES LOOK FAMILIAR? Minnesota DNR State Climatology Office

TEMPERATURE ISOLINES TEMPERATURE 37 o. F 41 o. F 44 o. F NWS

PRECIPITATION ISOLINES 22 in NWS 26 in 34 in PRECIPITATION 40 in

ISOLINE CONVERGENCE POINT MINNESOTA BIOMES TEMPERATURE 37 o. F CONIFEROUS FOREST 41 o. F DECIDUOUS FOREST 44 o. F NWS GRASSLAND 22 in 26 in 34 in PRECIPITATION MN DNR

MN avg. ranges 19 in. – 34 in. w/ Avg. = 26 in. (66 cm) CURRENT MN CLIMATE OF 2012 26 in. 41 o. F MN annual avg. ranges 45 o. F - 36 o. F w/ Avg. = 41 o. F (5 o. C)

SOIL MOISTURE BALANCE USDA - -+ PRAIRIE + FOREST USDA

HAVE THERE BEEN CHANGES IN MN’S CLIMATE? IPCC

TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (1900 -1930) Average Annual Temperature Isoclines (o. F) 36 o. F 40 o. F 1930 41 o. F 43 o. F 26 in 34 in 31 in 23 in Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches) 19 in NWS adapted by C. Lehman St. Cloud Area

TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (1930 -2010) Detroit Lakes Area Average Annual Temperature Isoclines (o. F) 37 o. F 39 o. F 2010 41 o. F 44 o. F NWS adapted by C. Lehman 34 in 30 in 37 in 26 in Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches) 22 in

MINNESOTA BIOMES CONIFEROUS FOREST About a 100 mile shift 2010 1930 DECIDUOUS FOREST GRASSLAND MN DNR

WHAT MAY HAPPEN TO MINNESOTA’S FUTURE CLIMATE? NASA IPCC

2100 TEMPERATURE 3. 5 – 4. 0 o. C (6. 3 – 7. 2 o. F) INCREASE 5 o. C (41 o. F) Current Avg. becomes 9 o. C (48 o. F) Predicted Avg. PRECIPITATION 5 – 10% (1. 3 – 2. 6 in. ) INCREASE 26 in. Current Avg. becomes 28 in. Predicted Avg. IPCC, 2007

MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS 2000 > 2030 > 2060 Minnesota DNR State Climatology Office

2100 MORE PRECIPITATION BUT…SUMME RS MAY BE MUCH DRIER THAN CURRENT CONDITIONS. USGCRP

TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (2010 -2100) o 41 F 2100 Average Annual Temperature Isoclines (o. F) 44 o. F 48 o. F 51 o. F 32 in 36 in 28 in 39 in Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches) 26 in NWS adapted by C. Lehman Oh, Canada!

MN avg. ranges 19 in. – 37 in. w/ Avg. = 28 in. (71 cm) PREDICTED MN CLIMATE OF 2100 26 in. 41 o. F MN annual avg. ranges 54 o. F - 42 o. F w/ Avg. = 48 o. F (9 o. C)

MINNESOTA BIOMES SA VA N NA 2100 GRASSLAND J. Corney DECIDUOUS FOREST About a 300 mile shift

SOIL MOISTURE BALANCE CURRENT [Rough Projection for 2100] - -+ PRAIRIE USDA + FOREST PROJECTED Modified from USDA

Projected (2100)

1990 2012 Plant Hardiness Zones USDA & National Arbor Day Foundation 2100

USGCRP – Hayhoe, et al.

WHERE GOES THE CLIMATE, SO GOES THE BIOMES…

SO, MAYBE NOT THIS… Stock Photos

PERHAPS SOMETHING LIKE THIS… Cedar Creek

SO, HOW WILL THE TREES MIGRATE? Luka

DISTURBANCE, SUCCESSION & COMPETITION MN DNR

Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director University of Minnesota Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve 2660 Fawn Lake Dr NE East Bethel, MN 55005 (763) 434 -5131 www. cbs. umn. edu/cedarcreek jcorney@umn. edu