THE SCIENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE How Climate
THE SCIENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: How Climate Change May Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director of the University of Minnesota’s Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve
WHAT MAY HAPPEN TO MINNESOTA’S CLIMATE? HOW MAY CHANGES IN CLIMATE AFFECT MINNESOTA’S ECOSYSTEMS?
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IT’S ALL ABOUT THE CLIMATE … CLIMATE is the prevailing weather conditions of a region averaged over long periods of time. Wikipedia
…AND THE BIOMES THAT RESULT NORTH AMERICA’S BIOMES A BIOME is a large land area characterized by a prevailing CLIMATE that supports a major ecological community type. Wikipedia
MINNESOTA’S BIOMES MN DNR Minnesota is unique in that it supports three major biomes, making it a grand ECOTONE… a transition zone between biomes.
WHERE GOES THE CLIMATE, SO GOES THE BIOMES…
TEMPERATUR E PRECIPITATIO N (Solar Radiation) (Amount & Timing) SOIL MOISTURE (Evapotranspiration)
Pearson Education
GLOBAL BIOMES “SURVIVE & THRIVE”
AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (U. S. ) “SURVIVE & THRIVE” TOLERANCE RANGES -20 o. F -14 o. F 0 o. F 30 o. F 41 o. F BOREAL FOREST 60 o. F 80 o. F 60 o. F 39 o. F DECIDUOUS 72 o. F 10 o. F GRASSLAND 80 o. F J. Corney
AVERAGE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (U. S. ) “SURVIVE & THRIVE” TOLERANCE RANGES 10 in. 20 in. 15 in. 26 in. BOREAL FOREST 25 in. 10 in. 35 in. GRASSLAND 45 in. 60 in. 40 in. DECIDUOUS FOREST 60 in. 35 in. J. Corney
U. S. CLIMATE RANGES
CONTINENTAL U. S. BIOMES 66 cm (26 in. ) U. S. 5 o. C (41 o. F)
N Boreal Sub-Arctic TEMPERATU RE U. S. : -26 -16 o. C (-14 -60 o. F) Ec o 1 (4 B to ne o. C 5 Sub-Tropical Temperate o F) U. S. : -12 -27 o. C (10 -80 o. F) S J. Corney U. S. : 2 -22 o. C (35 -72 o. F)
(2 Semi-Mesic E Mesic J. Corney 66 c ne to m o Semi-Arid Ec W Arid 6 i n . ) PRECIPITATION 25 -87 cm (10 -35 in) 40 -100 cm (15 -40 in) 65 -150 cm (25 -60 in)
SOIL MOISTURE U. S. Estimated Water Budget Evapotranspiration 67% Surface Runoff 29% Consumptive Use 2% Groundwater Outflow 2% Wikipedia USGS
SOIL MOISTURE N e on ot Ec W S E J. Corney
NORTH AMERICA’S PRAIRIE-FOREST BORDER ?
U. S. CLIMATE & BIOMES PROFILE Major Biomes NOAA - NWS
WHAT IS MINNESOT A’SCURRE NT (Averaged over the CLIMATE? past 100 years) DO THESE AVERAGES LOOK FAMILIAR? TEMPERATURE: 41 o. F annual avg. PRECIPITATION: 26 in. annual avg.
CONTINENTAL U. S. BIOMES 66 cm (26 in. ) U. S. 5 o. C (41 o. F)
51 o. F 42 o. F U. S. CLIMATE ISOLINE S 39 o. F (1971 -2000) 39 o. F 42 o. F 45 o. F 51 o. F 54 o. F 48 o. F 51 o. F 62 o. F 54 o. F 64 o. F 58 o. F 72 o. F 68 o. F 62 o. F 64 o. F 72 o. F 100” 12” 8” (1971 -2000) 16” 20” 24” 40” 28” 32” 36” 28” 36” 40” 4” 50” 64 o. F <4” 8” 60”
TEMPERATURE ISOLINES TEMPERATURE 37 o. F 41 o. F 44 o. F NWS
PRECIPITATION ISOLINES 23 in NWS 26 in 35 in PRECIPITATION 40 in
CURRENT MN CLIMATE OF 2010 66 cm (26 in. ) 5 o. C (41 o. F)
ISOLINE CONVERGENCE POINT TEMPERATURE 37 o. F 41 o. F 44 o. F NWS 23 in 26 in 35 in PRECIPITATION
MN SOIL MOISTURE BALANCE USDA - +
MINNESOTA BIOMES CONIFEROUS FOREST DECIDUOUS FOREST GRASSLAND MN DNR
HAVE THERE BEEN CHANGES IN MN’S CLIMATE? IPCC
TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (1900 -1930) Average Annual Temperature Isoclines (o. F) 36 o. F 40 o. F 1930 41 o. F 43 o. F NWS adapted by C. Lehman 26 in 34 in 31 in 22 in Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches) 19 in St. Cloud Area
TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (1930 -2000) Detroit Lakes Area Average Annual Temperature Isoclines (o. F) 37 o. F 39 o. F 2010 41 o. F 44 o. F NWS adapted by C. Lehman 35 in 30 in 38 in 26 in Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches) 23 in
MINNESOTA BIOMES CONIFEROUS FOREST About a 100 mile shift 2010 1930 DECIDUOUS FOREST GRASSLAND MN DNR
WHAT MAY HAPPEN TO MINNESOTA’S FUTURE CLIMATE?
2100 TEMPERATURE 3. 5 – 4. 0 o. C (6. 3 – 7. 2 o. F) INCREASE 5 o. C (41 o. F) Current Avg. becomes 9 o. C (48 o. F) Predicted Avg. PRECIPITATION 5 – 10% (1. 3 – 2. 6 in. ) INCREASE 26 in. Current Avg. becomes 28 in. Predicted Avg. IPCC, 2007
USGCRP – Hayhoe, et al.
TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (2010 -2100) o 41 F 2100 Average Annual Temperature Isoclines (o. F) 44 o. F 48 o. F 51 o. F 33 in 37 in 40 in 28 in Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches) 26 in NWS adapted by C. Lehman Oh, Canada!
PREDICTED MN CLIMATE OF 2100 71 cm (28 in. ) 9 o. C (48 o. F)
MINNESOTA BIOMES SA VA N NA 2100 GRASSLAND DECIDUOUS FOREST About a 300 mile shift
2100 Plant Hardiness Zones USGRCP - National Arbor Day Foundation
Projected (2100) USDA-Forest Service
SO, MAYBE NOT THIS…
PERHAPS SOMETHING LIKE THIS…
SO, HOW WILL THE TREES MIGRATE? Luka
SUCCESSION, DISTURBANCE & COMPETITION MN DNR
Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director University of Minnesota Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve 2660 Fawn Lake Dr NE East Bethel, MN 55005 (763) 434 -5131 www. cedarcreek. umn. edu jcorney@umn. edu
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