The ROMANIA BULGARIA CROSSBORDER SEGMENTS MOST EXPOSED TO

The ROMANIA- BULGARIA CROSS-BORDER SEGMENTS MOST EXPOSED TO MAJOR EARTHQUAKE RISK Prof. Gheorghe MARMUREANU National Institute for Earth Physics Bucharest , October 12, 2017

Transferul deformaţiilor din fronturile de deformare active adriatic, egeean si vrâncean prin sistemul Pannonic- ALCADI

Topografia, dicontinuitatea Moho şi izosuprafaţa anomaliei. . . Sferele, din câmpul de viteze ridicate, sunt hipocentrele cutremurelor intermediare vrancene, iar sferele roşii marchează localizarea ultimelor cutremure puternice si mecanismele lor de focar.

Large earthquake, June 11/12 -1701 (Mw=7. 17. 5 ) ▄ Deep; earthquake on June between 11 and 12 , night… ▄ Felt in: Transylvania, Muntenia(Valahia), Moldova , Poland (Pocutia…). . Three shocks… Odorhei…fear… Brasov: many vault/arches got down… many monasteries distroyed…(10) ▄ Felt…Constantinopole, Balkanic Area etc. ▄ Ambraseys and Finkel … at Izmail …many ▄ At Izmail many damages… large effects in Balkanic Area

Large earthquake, June 11 -1738 (Mw=7. 7 ) after 37 years ş ▄ Large earthquake felt in Balcanic area and NI (Serbia) ; Otoman camp army at NICOPOLE… ş ▄ At Ni was strong felt …We have to mention that…the same effects were at last Romanian EARTHQUAKE ON March 4, 1977, MW=7. 5… ▄ In Bucharest: 700 -760 deads (French ambassador. . ) ▄ more than 15 churches and monasterie s felt … and as we go to south, becoming more …etc. ▄ This strong earthquake strong affected Neamtului Fortress with walls of 4 -5 m ; also many damages to

The largest earthquake… october 26, 1802 (MW = 7. 9) after 64 years ▄ After 64 years …on October 26, 1802(MW=7. 9 ); 12: 53 hour when the people left… the church… Saint Paraschiva …holiday ▄ The deap : 140 -145 km and it was felt from Moskow to Cairo. Intensity at Moskow I=VI a nd at Bucharest noboday was killed…. It was an deep earthquake… ▄ Mihail Sadoveanu : in Metropolitam Church area from Bucharest: “ large craks …water, sand black crude oil…in this part of Bucharest there are two coal layers… The majority of Churches were diamaged or felt down …from Muntenia,

Large earthquake, January 23, 1838 (Mw=7. 5) after 36 years, earthquake described, in detail , by geologist Schüller, profesor Jena Univ. ▄ The earthquake was felt in Balkan area : Tirnovo, Trojan, Vratsa, Drianovo, Lukavitsa, în Tsaribrod region and with smaler intensity to Istanbul, Pera , Tracia de Est, la Niş, in Skodra lake region-Albania (Ambraseys) etc. The effects similarly to March, 4, 1977… ▄ On Buzau river side, at Sutesti, large craks. . . as say the jury. . . a child went down and lost him. . . ▄ this earthquake provoked important changes in morphology of extra-Carpathian territory …Red Lake) This earthquake is like March 4, earthquake as effects and distribution…

Large earthquake on November 10, 1940 (MW=7. 7) ▄ After 102 years, deep and strong earthquake (140 km) with large effects on Moldova, Ukraina…Focsani and villages arround were ruined /demolished… ▄ In Constanţa, a large number of houses were damaged. Among these, the “Rega. S” and “Bistrol” hotels were more severely damaged. At Mamaia, the “Rex” hotel was deteriorated.

In the same year, another great earthquake was recorded on May 17, 1940, in the USA, at El Centro, California, when the first accelerogram of a great earthquake was recorded. This El Centro-type accelerogram is known throughout the scientific literature, including the response spectrum (Figure 18, Chapter 1), but, as it would be seen on March 4, 1977, they’re totally different from the intermediate-depth earthquakes of Vrancea.

November 10. 1940, Bucharest. Carlton Building, 12 levels

To the Minister of Interior /No. 14. 033 of November 13, 1940 I have the honor to inform you that, following the earthquake occurred in the morning of November 10, 1940, Foc. Sani city suffered irremediable damages. We specify: 1. 50 % percent of the dwellings are completely destroyed and part of them deteriorated beyond repair. Maximum 25% of the buildings in the city will remain standing. 2. All elementary and secondary schools are seriously damaged, making the teaching process impossible. 3. The buildings of all public institutions are seriously deteriorated. The City Hall is so damage, that it requires rebuilding, The floor is completely destroyed. 4. Most churches are demolished, others are seriously damaged.

STRONG VRANCEA EARTHQUAKE ON MARCH 4, 1977 (w=7. 5) After 37 years…. Effects on Muntenia, Ruse , Ni. S e tc. ▄ Este de remarcat ca acest cutremur a avut efecte mai puternice in Muntenia; 1564 morţi si 12. 100 oameni rămaşi fără mâini sau fără picioare, 36 blocuri distruse, circa 65. 000 locuinţe afectate etc. ) şi in partea de nord a Bulgariei (285 morţi si răniţi, clădiri distruse etc. ) şi efecte mari la Niş (Serbia). Adâncimea acestui cutremur a fost de 95 km. A fost un cutremur mai mică adâncime. . .

The 1977, Mw=7. 4 Vrancea earthquake, h=95 km, IBUCHAREST= IX½ MSK; IRUSSE =IX MSK High dynamic amplification at long periods, dangerous for high buildings, that makes Bucharest the most dangerous capital city of Europe

In Romania: 1578 dead and 11, 321 injured (90% of dead and injured 67% of Bucharest), 36 blocks in Bucharest broken to the ground, 32, 900 houses collapsed or severely damaged 35, 000 families homeless, tens of thousands of buildings damaged, many other damages and destructions in the industry and economy etc. On territory of Bulgaria: 285 dead & injured, 8470 buildings partially destroyed and ruined etc. What can be done?

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: PSHA Summary ( model ) is a flaw ▄ Is not based on earthquake science ●Invalid physical models ● point source ● Poisson distribution ●Invalid mathematics ● Mis-interpretation of annual probability of exceedance or return period ▄ Become a pure numerical “ creation”…

EWS for irradiatorul nuclear de la IFIN-HH Magurele

After large Japan earthquake and tsunami( Sept. 11, 2011, Mw=9. 0): …future basic research in seismology must be soundly based on physics, impartially reviewed, and be led by top scientists rather than by faceless bureaucrats; We should instead tell the public and the government to ‘prepare for the unexpected’ and do our best to communicate both what we know and what we do not. (Robert J. Geller, Univ. of Tokyo; Nature l doi: 10. 1038/nature 10105)

Thank you for your attention !

The Problem with Probabilistic Methods !!! Probabilistic methods of estimating earthquake hazard (the one by Cornell [1968] and its reappraisals) are not based on physically sound models and have some fundamental https: //eos. org/opinions/reality-check-seismic-hazardmodels-you-can-trust flaws In particular, the dimensionless probability of exceedance (the probability that a given level of ground shaking exceeded in a given period of time) is erroneously equated to the dimensional rate of occurrence (the number of events per given period of time [Wang, 2011), making problematic even the math of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA).