The Role Of Human Bias In Our Analysis

The Role Of Human Bias In Our Analysis An d Decision. Making Accurac y 圖資三張雅婷圖資三鄭文音

Cognitive Bias Base rate fallacy, Choice-supportive bias Confirmation bias, Congruence bias Contrast effect, Denomination effect Distinction bias , Endowment effect Experimenter's or Expectation bias Illusion of control , Impact bias Information bias, Irrational escalation

Cognitive Bias Base rate fallacy, Choice-supportive bias Confirmation bias, Congruence bias Groupthink Contrast effect, Denomination effect Distinction bias , Endowment effect Experimenter's or Expectation bias Blindspots Illusion of control , Impact bias Information bias, Irrational escalation

Groupthin k

Cause of Groupthink A desire to avoid being seen as foolish A desire to avoid embarrassing or angering other members of the group A culture that mutes risk-taking

Challenge r Any suggestion that would lead to a delay was rejected. All member felt obligated to live up to the group “norms” Employees conducted private conversation are under high stress and concerned about losing future

Other tragic result Attack on Pearl Harbor Korean War Vietnam War Invasion of Iraq “I’m not interested in groupthink!”

Blindspot s

Types of Blindspots Unchallenged assumptions Corporate myths Corporate taboos

Top 3 Tech Howlers The i. Pod will never take off. There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home. ? Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within ten years.

Top 3 Tech Howlers The i. Pod will never take off. There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home. Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within ten years.