The producer price index for construction in France

The producer price index for construction in France Prices of construction index Gérard Vittek Head of section “index of the cost of construction and rent” 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

French NUTS 1 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

Sampling in the building permits database The sample of building permits is selected in the building permits database. New construction Construction of a house or a flat In a moving window of 12 months before the beginning of the quarter. The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

French output price index from the questionnaire to the database The database of French ministry of Ecology contains: Information from building permits database Information from survey database step 1 (to isolate real new construction of houses or of flat and to eliminate renovation, extension, and so on) Information from survey database step 2 (to collect price and characteristics) Information from Sub-municipal urban data by district: this area offers data from administrative sources or surveys on income and businesses for the IRIS-classification districts in municipalities of over 10, 000 inhabitants The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

French output price index from the questionnaire to the database The database of French ministry of Ecology contains: Information from building permits database : Date of the building permit Address of the construction Type of construction : Pure individual Grouped individual Bloc of flats The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

Pure individual questionnaire The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

Questionnaire for more than one flat The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

French output price index from the questionnaire to the database Information from survey database step 1 Destination of the construction: primary residence, second home What do you want to do with it? personal occupation Renting out Getting rental - accession For sale Timeshare for sale Date of the market price The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

French output price index from the questionnaire to the database Information from survey database step 2 Type of contract of construction: global market versus separated markets Painting or flooring done by the buyer Heating Air conditioned Fixtures and fittings sanitary Kitchens Roadworks networks, . . . , facilities and ground equipment Demolitions Special and recovery foundation substructure Architect's fees or equivalent Life insurance works or other insurance falling to owner The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

French output price index from the questionnaire to the database Information from survey database step 2 Date of signing of market Date at which prices have been established (reference date) Otherwise, when the estimate was established Date of start of work, actual or forecast Estimated duration of the work And so on. The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

French output price index from the regressions to the OPC In a first database we add the database of the quarter. Addition of the data relative to income Addition of data relative to seaside and mountain Addition of the number of construction by trimester of year and by type of construction The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

Weights Calculation of the average price of construction by quarter and by type of construction Using the number of construction and the average price of construction by quarter and by type of construction, we obtain the quarterly value of construction by type of construction The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

Regression of pure individual Creation of database Pure individual with the global database previously created A Selection of the first moving window Creation of times-dummies First regression Elimination of the outliers (null weights) Second regression with the weights Storage of the parameters of the regression, predicted values, T-values in a table Return to A and extraction of the next moving window until the end of the database The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

Regression: Pure individual model The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

Regression: Grouped individual model The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

Regression: Bloc of flats model The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

Elementary indices Calculation of quarterly evolution by type of construction Calculation of elementary indices by type of construction Winsorisation of the elementary indices (not compulsory) The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

Elementary indices of output price index in construction The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

Aggregated Indice The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

Output price index for construction: Weighting aggregation Elementary price indices Each model is used to calculate a price index evolution of construction grade (pure individual, grouped individual and collective dwellings) quarterly constant quality from the exponential of the difference between the variable in the last quarter of the regression and the previous quarter. It then calculates an index with a reference 1 in Q 1 1992 quarterly measure the evolution of prices of building category i and writes: 20 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

Output price index for construction: Weighting aggregation Chaining the previous annual average (weighted) The weights of the Paasche index using the number of units in the quarter under review and the average price of each type of construction to that date. For the three months a year, an average is calculated to serve the "annual recovery" for the calculation of the quarters of the following year. If we denote the i (pure individual , grouped individual and collective dwellings) type of construction, while the average annual price index is calculated as follows : 21 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

Output price index for construction: Weighting aggregation Theory Paasche ensures consistency in aggregation of aggregated indices from formulas of harmonic means, such as: Which reads as an aggregate evolution obtained detailed harmonic mean weighted annual values covering developments. Only values and price indices are used without the use of quantities and average prices (which are unclean because heterogeneous quality). 22 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

Publication and dissemination Quarterly publication 13 th march 2015 : 2014 Q 4 12 th June 2015: 2015 Q 1 11 th September 2015 : 2015 Q 3 11 th December 2015 : 2015 Q 3 http: //www. bdm. insee. fr/bdm 2/affic hage. Series. action? idbank=0000086 30&code. Groupe=1 The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

Output price index of construction The output price index of construction index in France (part 1) 20 th to 22 th May of 2015

Output price index for construction Thank you for your attention! Insee 18 bd Adolphe-Pinard 75675 Paris Cedex 14 www. insee. fr Contact M. Gérard Vittek Tél. : 01 41 17 51 15 email : gerard. vittek@insee. fr Informations statistiques : www. insee. fr / Contacter l’Insee 09 72 72 4000 (coût d’un appel local) du lundi au vendredi de 9 h 00 à 17 h 00