The Power of Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics from

The Power of Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics; from Insight to Action Cecile Alper-Leroux and Steve Van. Wieren, Ultimate Software April 28, 2016

“Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona. Not all holes, or games, are created equal. ” - George Will

YOUR PEOPLE ARE YOUR BUSINESS

“If you take care of your employees, they will take care of your business. ” - Sir Richard Branson

8 out of 10 Employers are seriously concerned about engagement and retention

With good reason… 31. 5% 51% 17. 5% Engaged and inspired Just kind of present Actively disengaged Source: Gallup State of the American Workplace Report, June 2013

It’s time to change it up! “The definition of Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. ” - Albert Einstein

Predictive and Prescriptive Talent Analytics 8

Predictive analytics are good for people and business Talent Laggards Low Performers Average Performers High Potentials High Performers 1. 4 x 1. 2 x x 1. 1 x 1. 3 x 1. 9 x Talent Magnets 1. 5 x 2. 2 x 1. 6 x 1. 4 x x -2. 2 1. 2 x -0. 7 Average two-year growth (indexed) Source: BCG Leadership and Talent Index Survey (1, 263 respondents) 0. 3 Revenues 1. 0 1. 8 Profit 2. 5 Median Score

Your Talent Analytics Playbook Data Knowledge Action

Your Talent Analytics Playbook Data Knowledge Action

Data “If we have data, let’s look at data. If all we have are opinions, then let’s start with mine. ” - Jim Barksdale, Former CEO, Netscape

There is hidden value in your INTERNAL HR data Ulti. Pro®

Data can overcome bias and workplace inequality

Judgment vs Data Judgment Data Based on: Gut-level input Based on: Employee records Planned Periodically Manually Updated Highly Subjective Always Available Always Up-to-date Unbiased

Judgment Is Biased The Idiosyncratic Rater Effect 61% of your rating of an employee is more a reflection of you

Predictive vs Prescriptive Predictive Analytics Prescriptive Actions The power to use what happened yesterday to accurately predict what will happen tomorrow Suggesting the best action to take to influence a different outcome “An analytic without action is useless” – Steve Van. Wieren

Ulti. Pro Predictive Analytics Ulti. Pro Retention Predictor™ Ulti. Pro High Performer Indicator™ Ulti. Pro High Performer Predictor™ Ulti. Pro Engagement Index™ Forecasts an employee’s likelihood of staying in the organization for the next 12 months Identifies who the current top performers are in the organization Identifies the likelihood of an employee becoming a high performer in the organization Identifies the engagement levels of employees in the organization

Each Individual Gets a Score/Indicator HPI 87. 0 80. 3 72. 8 HPI 60. 4 64. 5 90. 3 94. 7 96. 9 98. 7 HPI 36. 7 42. 5 25. 7 18. 4 10. 3 HIGH RISK 99. 9 LOW RISK 59. 7 48. 1 99. 2 MEDIUM RISK

Knowledge “In baseball, you don't know nothing. ” - Yogi Berra

Reporting with Predictive Analytics Predictive talent analytics help identify retention risks and high potentials.

Retention Use Case – Financial Services Analytics identified 3 X more ‘at risk’ employees than manager assessment alone Analytics Judgment 4. 3% tagged 43% actually left 10% lowest scores tagged 61% actually left 16 employees correctly identified 47 employees correctly identified 152 terminated

High Performer Use Case – Financial Services Analytics was 2 X more effective at identifying current high performers Data Judgment ~27% tagged 13% received >5% raise ~9% tagged 28% received >5% raise Best practice = 5 -10% of talent pool

Customers who enable Retention Predictor… Type Enabled Not Enabled Difference Overall turnover 23. 9% 33. 2% 28% lower Voluntary turnover 16. 8% 26. 0% 35% lower Conclusion: customers who turn on the Retention Predictor have lower turnover rates

Action “There are three types of baseball players: Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen and those who wonder what happens. ” - Tommy Lasorda

“The goal of most prescriptive analytics is to guide the decision-maker…” - Michael Wu

Managers have choices to make – help them! High Performer High Engagement High Risk of Leaving High Performer Future High Performer Low Engagement What should I do?

Build Your Coaching Staff: Develop & inspire managers to be stronger leaders and give better feedback

Prescriptive Analytics Prescriptive actions provide practical advice and inspirational messages about effective leadership. My Leadership Actions

Ulti. Pro Prescriptive Actions GROWTH FINANCIAL INFLUENCE ACHIEVEMENT AUTONOMY Assign Stretch Project Spot bonus Mentor others in an area they are expert in Private reward Offer flexibility - choice in projects or work

50% The groups receiving actions have up to 50% lower turnover * Recency of the action is important; best results are found when actions are continuous

Quantify the Savings/ROI Salaried Employees Non-salaried Employees 1. 5 to 3 times the annual salary $5 k - $20 k per employee Includes Separation, Replacement, and Training costs From SHRM, NRF, J Douglas Philips, and Bersin studies

Data, Knowledge, Action – in action ACTIONS are optimized over time Leaders gain KNOWLEDGE Managers record DATA

Play Ball! “I was planning to be a baseball player until I ran into something called a curveball. And that set me back. ” - Ben Chandler