The Potential for Biodiesel and Low Carbon Fuels
The Potential for Biodiesel (and Low Carbon Fuels) in the Northeast Coralie Cooper, Michelle Manion, Eric Skelton, and Matt Solomon NESCAUM RI GHG Stakeholder Meeting February 15, 2007
Today’s Presentation 1. Review of findings from draft NESCAUM white paper on biodiesel: – – Fuel quality Possible applications Emissions Production and supply issues 2. Overview of NESCAUM’s proposed study of Low Carbon Fuels standard for the Northeast: – Key questions and issues – Potential study design
What is Biodiesel? • General Definition: “Biodiesel is a domestic, renewable fuel for diesel engines derived from natural vegetable and animal oils: – Feedstocks: Soybean, canola, sunflower, mustard, rapeseed, waste grease • Technical definition: a fuel comprised of mono-alkyl esters of long chain fatty acids derived from vegetable oils or animal fats, designated B 100, and meeting the requirements of ASTM D 6751. • Biodiesel Blend: blend of biodiesel fuel meeting ASTM D 6751 with petroleum-based diesel fuel, designated “BXX”.
Biodiesel Fuel Quality Problem Solution • Contaminants/Odor→ASTM Std. Feedstock • Cold Flow/Viscosity→Heat, ≤ B 20, Unsaturated • Corrosion→ Compatible Materials • Solvent Effect→ Fuel Filter Change
Current and Potential Applications Mobile Sources • Highway & Non-Road Diesel Engines • C-1 and C-2 Marine Diesel Engines • Large (C-3) Marine Engines Stationary Sources • • Electricity Generating Units Diesel Generators Combined Heat & Power Units Boilers & Furnaces (Residential & Commercial)
Mobile Source Applications • The Northeast market for mobile source No. 2 diesel fuel is almost 4 billion gallons per year. Pros • Significant reductions in criteria and GHG pollutant emissions • Track record using B 20 in highway & mid-size marine engines • Supply nexus between non-road fuel and home heating oil Limitations • • • Untested in advanced technology engines (2007+ model year) Solvent effect on engine & fuel system deposits Slight fuel economy penalty Current at-the-rack blending limits widespread application Untried with bunker fuel in larger (C-3) marine applications
Stationary Source Applications • The Northeast market for stationary (industrial and commercial) source No. 2 distillate fuel is about 1. 4 billion gallons per year. Pros • Emission reduction opportunity for older uncontrolled IC engines • Track record in other applications using No. 2 distillates • Boilers & furnaces able to burn “off-spec” biofuels Limitations • Largely untried in applications using heavier distillates such as larger industrial boilers and centralized power generation equipment • Significant price disparity compared to heavier distillates • Fuels cannot be stored unused for long periods
Residential Applications • The Northeast market for home heating oil— 4 to 5 billion gallons per year—is the largest in the world • • • Pros Significant reductions in emissions of SO 2, CO 2, and NOx(? ) Good buy-in from industry, fuel dealers (e. g. , marketing green fuel) External combustion insensitive to fuel variation Healthy margins on HHO allow some maneuvering on price Relatively simple blending procedures Limitations • Manufacturer’s warranties on burners and furnaces voided • Seasonality of market may hinder market penetration • Supplying entire NE HHO market with a B 5 blend would require all of (current) US supply…!
Criteria Emissions: Engine Testing . Source: US EPA, 2002. “A Comprehensive Analysis of Biodiesel Impacts on Exhaust Emissions”, Draft Technical Report, EPA 420 -P-02 -001
NOx Emissions: Chassis Testing Source: R. L. Mc. Cormick, A. Williams, J. Ireland, M. Brimhall, and R. R. Hayes, 2006. “Effects of Biodiesel Blends on Vehicle Emissions”. NREL Milestone Report, NREL/MP-540 -40554.
Estimated Lifecycle GHG Reductions
NE States Annual No. 2 Distillate Use 2005 – 106 Gallons State Hwy Fuel Nonroad Marine Fuel Home Heating IND COMM Total CT ME 305 175 37 32 7 10 626 353 10 18 120 1103 709 MA 422 142 NH 102 27 NJ 937 81 NY 1105 210 RI 58 7 VT 62 20 22 3 98 9 4 0 773 201 369 1471 157 95 16 10 23 58 4 10 169 62 134 604 28 35 1555 405 1642 3457 222
NE States Annual Heavier Distallate Use 2005 – 106 Gallons State Marine Fuel Elec. Power Industrial Commercial Total CT ME 0 37 224 81 48 156 18 20 291 294 MA NH 21 0 456 94 31 6 120 52 628 152 NJ NY RI VT 672 222 0 0 148 1462 1 1 20 57 13 7 26 543 18 7 866 2285 32 15
Current US Biodiesel Production • Total US biodiesel capacity has tripled twice since 2001 • 80+ additional plants coming on line now = 1. 4 B gpy of capacity by 2010 • Dominant feedstock in US production is soybean
Existing and Planned US Capacity
Potential for Future Regional Production • Current production in Northeast is very small in scale— most plants well under 1 million gpy, using waste oils or imported feedstocks • Numerous factors conspire against the Northeast as a major producer… – Feedstock availability • Waste oils are very disperse, show diseconomies of scale • Limited ag production/high opportunity costs • Imported feedstocks may have higher C content (e. g. , PKO) – Limited infrastructure (e. g. , no crushing plants) – Transportation costs →Bottom line: Northeast will never be a high-volume, lowcost producer, but niche production is underway and will continue…but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try.
Policy Insights (draft!) • Despite disadvantages, Northeast should explore all possible opportunities for indigenous production of feedstocks for biodiesel (e. g. , oilseed crops, algae). • From a practical and technological standpoint, stationary applications for biodiesel use (HHO, diesel generators) make more sense than widespread use in the Northeast’s transportation sector, at least right now. • Given RI’s relatively small share of the Northeast oil market, RI might consider phasing in a B 2 or B 5 standard for HHO, contingent upon sufficient availability of low-carbon biodiesel.
Low Carbon Fuel Standard • Governor Schwarzenegger signed an executive order requiring passenger car fuels in California to emit 10% fewer greenhouse gases in 2020 • CARB to establish regulations with technical input from the California Energy Commission and the University of California • GHG emissions for fuels will be calculated on a lifecycle basis
Low Carbon Fuel Standard • Standard will penalize carbon intensive fuels such as gasoline from tar sands and encourage low carbon fuels such as electricity • Could be met by use of ethanol at low blends, electricity, biodiesel, compressed natural gas, E 85, hydrogen • Credits can be generated from electricity sold for use in electric cars or plug-in hybrids
Proposed NESCAUM Analysis • NESCAUM considering a study to evaluate the technical and policy issues of a low carbon fuel standard for the Northeast • Technical considerations include: – infrastructure (E 85 stations), – vehicle changes (electric, flex-fuel vehicles), – costs and benefits of compliance • NESCAUM would estimate possible compliance scenarios - e. g. , volumes of different types of fuels that would be needed for compliance
NESCAUM Analysis (continued) We plan to evaluate policy questions such as: • How would low carbon fuel sales be tracked? • How would lifecycle CO 2 emissions be certified? • How would a credit system for electricity sales for electric vehicles be established? • Which entities would be regulated? • What incentives should be established to promote local production of biofuels? • What fuels should be included in a Northeast Low Carbon Fuel program (passenger car only or gasoline and distillate)?
Possible Scenario for 10% LCF by 2020
Possible Scenario for 10% LCF by 2020
Thank You! If you have additional questions or comments: Michelle Manion: mmanion@nescaum. org Matt Solomon: msolomon@nescaum. org
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