The Positive Economist Susan Hayes PDST Economics Conference

The Positive Economist Susan Hayes PDST Economics Conference Emerging from the Boom! 2 nd Oct 2010

Emerging from the Boom!

Charlie Mc. Creevy

A Leader Leading the Masses

Economic Output • Economic output from 1993 to 2000, the average growth of real GNP was 8. 3 per cent per year; • Debt/GDP ratio was at 29 per cent in 2005 • In 2007, there were 33, 000 Irish millionaires • 50% more in women in the workforce than in 1997

Employment Ø Employment: total employment rose by 605, 500 in the period 1987 to 2001, an increase of over 54 per cent in 14 years Ø Multinationals accounted for just 10% in 2000 Ø Unemployment saw a trough at 4. 5% by the end of 2007

Celtic Tiger

Irish People Queuing to Buy Houses

“The Dublin housing crisis could probably be ended tomorrow if you replaced every single person in Dublin with someone else from another part of the world. ” Anthony Sweeney, 1999, European Financial Markets Expert

“Everything in the world may be endured, except continued prosperity” Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

Unequal Society

Unequal Society In 2006, the richest 20% of the working-age population were earning 12 times as much as the poorest 20 % – one of the highest levels of income inequality among any of the 30 OECD countries.

The UN Poverty Index in 2002 rated Ireland as having the highest percentage of poor people in Western Europe, about 15. 3 percent of the country's 3. 9 million residents

Dancing on the edge?

What underpinned Ireland’s economic growth • Low corporate taxes • EU membership and the European internal market; • Competitiveness; • Foreign direct investment (FDI); and • Education and labour supply. • A time of strong global expansion.

Competitiveness – Jan 2010: CPI Base 2006 Rate = 100 – August 2010: Goods Base 2001 Rate = 103. 4 – Clothing & Footwear (-8. 2%) – Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (-3. 2%) – Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance (-4. 0%)

Foreign Direct Investment – Otter. Box Announces Plans for EMEA HQ in Cork (No. 62) – Intel Corporation announced a 3 year, $1. 5 million deal Tyndall National Institute, UCC – Fi-Tek is establishing its European Headquarters in Dublin. – AOL Global Operations Limited that it is to further expand its Dublin operation – Google is to create 200 new jobs in a new Operations Centre in Dublin.

Employment & The Labour Supply • Monthly decrease of 5, 400 in the Live Register in September 2010. • Decrease in 2, 600 males and 2, 900 females • Rate of Unemployment is at 13. 7%, down from 13. 8% in August. • 91, 000 unemployed graduates

Emigration • Emigration: April 2009/10: 65, 300 • Immigration: April 2009/10: 30, 800 • Net Outward migration from 7, 800 in April 2009 to 34, 500 in April 2010. • Highest level of net outward migration since 1989.

Migration

A time of strong global expansion – ESRI suggest that an increase in world output of 1 per cent in the long run increases the demand for Irish output by around 1. 3 per cent

Sure isn’t the world teetering on a double dip? • Singapore's its $182 billion economy has already grown 15% this year. • Thailand’s (GDP) may expand 7. 3% to 7. 8% in 2010 • Turkey's economy grew 10. 3% year-over-year in the second quarter • In Brazil, nearly two million new jobs were created in the first eight months of this year. – 3 x the number of jobs created in the United States, – which has 120 million more residents – an economy that's five-times larger than that of Brazil

Exports – Our Shining Light! • Exports: € 67 billion in 2009 and growing exponentially • WTO: Ireland ranks the 9 th largest commercial services exporting nation • In Ireland it is estimated that only 3. 5% of services businesses do any exporting, which employ only an estimated 12% of the 843, 000 people employed in the private sector services.

What don’t I want any more? • Ridiculous Quangos • Cosy Cartel on Boards • Inefficiencies at State Level

On Thursday 21 st Sept 2010. , Ireland's Central Statistics Office said gross domestic product, a broad measure of the value of goods and services produced by the economy, dropped 1. 2% from the first three months of the year. Economists had forecast a 0. 5% growth rate, which would have extended a brief expansion of the Irish economy that began in the first quarter.

The Problem of Averages

Three Ways to Measure GDP • Final Goods Produced • Value Added • Income

Breakdown on last quarter’s contraction • Private consumption fell by 0. 2% in the quarter. • Public consumption contracted by 0. 8% in the quarter. • Imports grew by 4. 5 per cent quarter on quarter • Fixed capital formation rebounded • All old news anyway!

Have we money to spend? • 55, 000 contributed from Volvo Ocean Race • 34, 000 contributed from Oxegen • 30, 000 contributed from the Cavan Fleadh Ceoil • 10, 000 to the local economy from the National Ploughing Championships • Car scrappage scheme: sales of new cars up by 94% on this month last year!

Why Did I…. . Why did I set up a business in a recession, as opposed to the top of the boom? www. thepositiveeconomist. com www. optionstradingireland. com www. investinginyouth. com

Thank you. . . See you throughout the day! Thank You. . . . Susan Hayes