The Polaris Project and Managing Risk and Complexity

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The Polaris Project and Managing Risk and Complexity Dr. John J. Byrne, PMP John

The Polaris Project and Managing Risk and Complexity Dr. John J. Byrne, PMP John J. Byrne © 2011 1

Project Overview John J. Byrne © 2011 2

Project Overview John J. Byrne © 2011 2

Introduction �National Security Counsel Recommendations: �Seaborne nuclear missile launch system using converted transports �

Introduction �National Security Counsel Recommendations: �Seaborne nuclear missile launch system using converted transports � 1500 miles minimum range IRBM �Augment U. S. Air force fleet of bombs �U. S. Air Force develop ICBM John J. Byrne © 2011 3

1955 to 1957 �U. S. Navy given 8 years to complete John J. Byrne

1955 to 1957 �U. S. Navy given 8 years to complete John J. Byrne © 2011 4

1955 to 1957 continued �Political influences �Senator Mc. Carthy � Korean War � Soviet

1955 to 1957 continued �Political influences �Senator Mc. Carthy � Korean War � Soviet spying �President Eisenhower � Military industrial complex � Garrison state � Atom for Peace �Funding John J. Byrne © 2011 5

Political influences continued �Interservice rivalry �Curtis Le. May �Admiral’s Revolt – U. S. S.

Political influences continued �Interservice rivalry �Curtis Le. May �Admiral’s Revolt – U. S. S. United States �Naval culture – cruise missiles John J. Byrne © 2011 6

1955 to 1957 Technical Issues �No such missile existed capable of satisfying the National

1955 to 1957 Technical Issues �No such missile existed capable of satisfying the National Security Council’s requirements �No warhead had yet been developed that was capable of being deployed on a missile capable of seaborne launch �No launch system existed that was capable of launching a large missile from a ship �No ship in the Navy inventory was capable of carrying and launching a large missile �No guidance system existed that was accurate enough to guide a nuclear armed missile 1500 miles to its target with any degree of reliability whatsoever John J. Byrne © 2011 7

Technical Issues continued �NSC requirements John J. Byrne © 2011 8

Technical Issues continued �NSC requirements John J. Byrne © 2011 8

1955 to 1957 Initial Responses �Stakeholder analysis - Risk averse �SPO �Commissioned China Lake

1955 to 1957 Initial Responses �Stakeholder analysis - Risk averse �SPO �Commissioned China Lake study � Jupiter and Transport requirements �Not realistic John J. Byrne © 2011 9

1955 to 1957 Initial Responses continued �Must use submarines �Need smaller missiles �Need smaller

1955 to 1957 Initial Responses continued �Must use submarines �Need smaller missiles �Need smaller warheads �German experience �Enlisted Dr. Teller John J. Byrne © 2011 10

1955 to 1957 Initial Responses continued �Created Polaris Ad hoc Group �China Lake �Project

1955 to 1957 Initial Responses continued �Created Polaris Ad hoc Group �China Lake �Project Atlantis �Project Mercury � 20 megaton �Liquid or Solid fuel? John J. Byrne © 2011 11

1955 to 1957 Initial Responses continued �Nobska �Assumptions and constrain analysis 1100 �W-47 John

1955 to 1957 Initial Responses continued �Nobska �Assumptions and constrain analysis 1100 �W-47 John J. Byrne © 2011 12

Late 1957 �Possible but dead in the water. John J. Byrne © 2011 13

Late 1957 �Possible but dead in the water. John J. Byrne © 2011 13

Sputnik �October 4, 1957 �NASA �New math �Duck and cover drills �NSF �ARPA, DARPA,

Sputnik �October 4, 1957 �NASA �New math �Duck and cover drills �NSF �ARPA, DARPA, ARPANET �Polaris John J. Byrne © 2011 14

Post Sputnik �Risk seeking �Partial funding restored � 1100 miles accepted John J. Byrne

Post Sputnik �Risk seeking �Partial funding restored � 1100 miles accepted John J. Byrne © 2011 15

PERT �Developed PERT �Project and activity standard deviation �Earned Value Management John J. Byrne

PERT �Developed PERT �Project and activity standard deviation �Earned Value Management John J. Byrne © 2011 16

PERT Applied � Polaris Risk Management Typical Risk Management Determine time estimates (TE) from

PERT Applied � Polaris Risk Management Typical Risk Management Determine time estimates (TE) from PERT estimates of activity duration Risk Management Planning Calculate standard deviations and rank activities based on these standard deviation Risk Identification Perform selective Risk Identification Risk Qualification Analyze and prioritize risks Risk Quantification Create proactive and reactive response Risk Response Planning plans Monitor and Control Risks using EVM Risk Monitoring and Control John J. Byrne © 2011 17

Specific Issues �Build or modify? - early version of decision tree analysis �Lockheed &

Specific Issues �Build or modify? - early version of decision tree analysis �Lockheed & Kelley Johnson � 14 rules � 19 launch failures and available parts �Submarine launch system - popup testing – San Clemente John J. Byrne © 2011 18

Specific Issues continued �Transferred �Oxygen �Carbon dioxide �Carbon monoxide �Water �Scorpion to George Washington

Specific Issues continued �Transferred �Oxygen �Carbon dioxide �Carbon monoxide �Water �Scorpion to George Washington John J. Byrne © 2011 19

Specific Issues continued �Technical disputes �Navigation issues: �Missile – 1100 miles �Submarine - SINS

Specific Issues continued �Technical disputes �Navigation issues: �Missile – 1100 miles �Submarine - SINS – GPS �Warhead reentry John J. Byrne © 2011 20

Risk management techniques �SPO set goals �SPO communication management �Field locations employed EMV and

Risk management techniques �SPO set goals �SPO communication management �Field locations employed EMV and reported to SPO John J. Byrne © 2011 21

Risk management techniques �No top-down control �Empowered field locations �Independent decision making �Sharing of

Risk management techniques �No top-down control �Empowered field locations �Independent decision making �Sharing of budgets amongst individual entities John J. Byrne © 2011 22

Conclusions �Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo �SPO kept project moving without budget �Managed competing key

Conclusions �Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo �SPO kept project moving without budget �Managed competing key stakeholder expectations John J. Byrne © 2011 23

Conclusions �Centralized/ decentralized organization �Clear vision and goals �Sputnik �Realized its own shortcoming –

Conclusions �Centralized/ decentralized organization �Clear vision and goals �Sputnik �Realized its own shortcoming – PERT John J. Byrne © 2011 24

Conclusions �Hass (2009) �Not focus on best PM �Focus on managing diverse group of

Conclusions �Hass (2009) �Not focus on best PM �Focus on managing diverse group of experts John J. Byrne © 2011 25

Final word �June 9, 1959 George Washington launched �Commissioned December 30, 1959 �Launch July

Final word �June 9, 1959 George Washington launched �Commissioned December 30, 1959 �Launch July 20, 1960 John J. Byrne © 2011 26

Final word �Cuban Missile Crisis �Cold War �Considered most successful DOD project ever John

Final word �Cuban Missile Crisis �Cold War �Considered most successful DOD project ever John J. Byrne © 2011 27

Contact Information �Dr. John J. Byrne, PMP jbyrne@devry. edu �Polaris: Lessons in Risk management

Contact Information �Dr. John J. Byrne, PMP jbyrne@devry. edu �Polaris: Lessons in Risk management John J. Byrne © 2011 28

References � Appleton Public Library (2003). Joseph Mc. Carthy (1908 – 1957). Retrieved from:

References � Appleton Public Library (2003). Joseph Mc. Carthy (1908 – 1957). Retrieved from: http: //www. apl. org/history/mccarthy/biography. html. � Babcock, Elizabeth. (2008). Magnificent Mavericks History of the Navy at China Lake, California Volume 3. China Lake Museum Foundation: China Lake, California. � Barkley, Bruce T. (2004). Project Risk Management. New York: Mc. Graw-Hill. � Byrne, John (2011). Polaris: Lessons in Risk Management. Ontario, Canada: Multimedia Publications. � Carbone, Thomas A. and Sampson Gholston. (2004). Project manager skill development: A survey of programs and practitioners. Engineering Management Journal, 16(3): 10 -16. � Retrieved from http: //www. tomcarbone. com/papers/Carbone-EMJSept 04 -PM. pdf � Coleridge, Samuel. (n. d. ) The Rime of the Ancient Mariner. Retrieved from: http: //www. onlineliterature. com/coleridge/646. � Emme, Eugene. (1961). Aeronautics and Astronautics: An American Chronology of Science and Technology in the Exploration of Space, 1915 -1960. Washington, D. C. : NASA. � Fact (n. d. ). In Merriam-Webster Dictionary online. Retrieved form http: //www. merriamwebster. com/netdict/fact. � Federation of American Scientists (2000). R-13/SS-N-4 Sark. Retrieved from: http: //www. fas. org/nuke/guide/russia/slbm/r-13. htm. � Garber, Steve. (2007). Sputnik and the Dawn of the Space Age. National Atmospheric and Space Administration. Retrieved from http: //history. nasa. gov/sputnik/. John J. Byrne © 2011 29

� Hass, Kathleen (2008). Managing Complex Projects a New Model. Management Concepts: Vienna, Virginia.

� Hass, Kathleen (2008). Managing Complex Projects a New Model. Management Concepts: Vienna, Virginia. � Heldman, Kim. (2009). PMP® Project Management Professional Exam Study Guide 5 th Edition. Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley Publishing. � Heldman, Kim. (2005). Project Manager’s Spotlight on Risk Management. Alameda, CA. SYBEX Inc. � Herken, Gregg (2002). Brotherhood of the Bomb. Holt Paperback: New York. � Hillson, David, & Simon, Peter. (2007). Practical Project Risk Management: the ATOM Methodology. Vienna, Virginia: Management Concepts. � Hillson, David. (2002). The Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) as an Aid to Effective Risk Management. Presented at the Fifth European Project Management Conference, PMI Europe 2002, Cannes, France. � Knemeyer, Franklin, (2003). Concept Formulation of the Navy’s FBM. U. S. Naval Ordinance Testing Station, China Lake, California. � Knemeyer, Franklin, (1957). Notes from Origin of Atlantis. U. S. China Lake Naval Ordinance Testing Station, China Lake, California. � Lockheed Martin (2011). Kelly’s 14 Rules and Practices. Retrieved from: http: //www. lockheedmartin. com/aeronautics/skunkworks/14 rules. html. � Meilinger, Phillip. (1989). The Admirals’ Revolt of 1949: Lessons for Today. Parameters: September, 1989, pages 81 -96. � National Science Foundation (ed. ) (2010). A Timeline of NSF History. National Science Foundation. Retrieved from http: //www. nsf. gov/about/history/overview-50. jsp. John J. Byrne © 2011 30

� Polmar, Norman. (2003). The Polaris a Revolutionary Missile System and Concept. United States

� Polmar, Norman. (2003). The Polaris a Revolutionary Missile System and Concept. United States Navy Historical Center. Retrieved from http: //www. history. Navy. mil/colloquia/cch 9 d. html. � Project Management Institute. (2008). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) 4 th Edition. Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. � Raborn, William. (n. d. ). Retrieved from http: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/William_Raborn. � Rhodes, Richard (1986). The Making of the Atomic Bomb. Simon & Schuster Paperbacks: New York. � Royer, Paul. (2002). Project Risk Management A Proactive Approach. Vienna, Virginia: Management Concepts. � Sapolsky, Harvey. (n. d. ) The U. S. Navy’s Fleet Ballistic Missile Program and Finite Deterrence. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts. � Schuyler, John. (2001). Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects 2 nd Edition. Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. � Söderlund, Jonas & Lenfle, Sylvain (2010). Project History. International Journal of Project Management, Version 1. 1 December 30, 2010 � Sputnik 1 (n. d. ). Retrieved from http: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Sputnik_1. � Sputnik Crisis (n. d. ). Retrieved from http: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Sputnik_crisis. � Standish Group (2009, April 23). New Standish Group report shows more project failing and less successful projects. Standish Group Retrieved from http: //standishgroup. com/newsroom/chaos_2009. php. John J. Byrne © 2011 31

� Stewart, James, Meise, Oliver, & Stephens, Ivan (n. d. ) The U-Boat Rocket

� Stewart, James, Meise, Oliver, & Stephens, Ivan (n. d. ) The U-Boat Rocket Program. Retrieved from: http: //www. prinzeugen. com/V 2. htm. � Symptom (n. d. ). In Merriam-Webster Dictionary online. Retrieved from http: //www. merriamwebster. com/netdict/symptom. � Tague, Nancy. (2004). The Quality Tool Box 2 nd edition. Milwaukee, Wisconsin: ASQ Quality Press. � Van Atta, Richard. (n. d. ) Fifty Years of Innovation and Discovery. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency – United States Department of Defense. Retrieved from http: //www. darpa. mil/Docs/Intro_-_Van_Atta_200807180920581. pdf. � Watson, John (1998). The Origin of the APL Strategic Systems Department. John Hopkins Technical Digest, v 19 number 4. � Weir, Gary (n. d. ). Deep Ocean, Cold War. U. S. Naval Historical Center. Retrieved from http: //www. Navy. mil/Navydata/cno/n 87/usw/issue_7/deepocean. htm. � Westrum, Ron. (1999). Sidewinder: Creative Missile Development at China Lake. Naval Institute Press: Annapolis. � Wideman, R. M. (ed. ) (1992). Project & Program Risk Management: a Guide to Managing Project Risks & Opportunities. Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. John J. Byrne © 2011 32