The overall classification of this briefing is UNCLASSIFIED

The overall classification of this briefing is UNCLASSIFIED in its entirety. The Operational Environment: Great Power Competition and Conflict, 2019 -2035 Presentation to the American Society of Military Comptrollers 25 September 2019 Ian M. Sullivan, TRADOC Assistant G 2 The Operational Environment Enterprise DCS, G-2 TRADOC Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED http: //www. tradoc. army. mil/

UNCLASSIFIED The Operational Environment to 2030 Video Place holder Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 2

UNCLASSIFIED The Operational Environment To 2035 While we were engaged in the Middle East and South Asia, our adversaries were watching us and improving… • • • Areas of Potential Competition and Conflict Pacing Threats Arctic Electronic Warfare Integrated Air Defenses Counter Space & PNT Cyber & Social Media Recon-Info-Strike Complexes Extensive use of UAVs Massed Artillery & Fires Protection Proxies Deception & Ambiguity CBRNE/WMD Russia • Capable nuclear nearpeer adversary • Seeks return to great power status • Whole-of-Government approach to coercive competition • Surpassed by China 2028 -2030 China • Rapidly modernizing nuclear near-peer • Global ambitions • Increasing global economic competition and confidence • Surpasses Russia by 2028 -2030 Ways of War are roughly similar • Seek to prevail in competition phase • Power across DIME-FL; focus on Information • In conflict, contest all domains • Nuclear deterrent Major Differences • Geography • Capacity • Competence / Momentum Potential for Overmatch Fundamental Changes Potential Russian Competition Potential Russian Conflict Potential Chinese Competition Potential Chinese Conflict Electronic Warfare Cyber & Space Fighting Vehicles Air Defense MRLS & Rockets Artillery First Island Chain RF Weapons Internet of Things Quantum AI/Robotics Energetics This Operational Environment connects the fielded force to the future force, and transitions “how we fight” to “how we will fight. ” Different investment focus increased potential for overmatch Victory Starts Here! Laser Weapons Synthetic Bio Second Island Chain Power Hypersonics/Rail Guns Future investment trajectories could lead to strategic surprise & no clear relative advantage UNCLASSIFIED 3

UNCLASSIFIED Great Power Competition Political, Economic, Informational, and Psychological Pressures Networks: Human & cyber penetration, exploitation & target development… Chinese statesponsored hacking group APT 10 most likely culprit targeting U. S. utility companies PROTECTION Technology development: Steal & clone military and civilian research & development…China is stealing technology from foreign militaries to advance and modernize its military Russian & Chinese Networks Disorient/mislead the political and military leadership Information Ops: Control the narrative, create plausible deception, develop political discord…NATO: Russia targeted German army with fake news campaign Strategic Partnering: Military, political and economic ties in order to isolate US interests… Russia sends 100 soldiers to Venezuela to conduct “maintenance work” Russian S-400 Employment of new weapons systems (destabilizing or game changers) Challenge US Assurance: Forward deploy advanced systems to create stand-off…Russia deploys S-400 to Syria; China deploys HQ-9 to Paracels Islands Chinese HQ-9 “Yes, Russia is preparing for war, I have confirmed it…”-Andrei Belousov, Russian Foreign Ministry “We have to step up combat readiness exercises, joint exercises and confrontational exercises to enhance servicemen’s capabilities and preparation for war. ” - Xi Jinping, Chinese President 4 Russian “Opens Skies” aircraft Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 4

UNCLASSIFIED Great Power Conflict: Timeless Competitions Transformed Strikers vs. Shielders Finders vs. Hiders Great power conflict will be faster, more lethal, and done at greater ranges. It will be hybrid in nature, using proxies and cyber attacks against military and civilian targets. Control and denial of Information and narratives will likely be more important than any weapon system. Planning and Judgement vs. Reaction and Autonomy Victory Starts Here! Escalation vs. De-Escalation UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED The Russian Example: Expanding the “Battlespace” in the Competition Period 8 Aug 2019: Tu-95 MS BEAR intercepted 200 miles off Alaska 24 Jun 2019: Russian Frigate ADMIRAL GORSHKOV arrives in Havana, Cuba 22 Dec 2018: 2 Tu-160 BLACKJACKs Arrive in Caracas, Venezuela “Propaganda needs to be smart, clever, and efficient, ” Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Feb 2017 Russia has expanded the battlespace in the competition period, and it now reaches to CONUS. As a result, maneuver begins at home station. Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED Conditions In The Environment Battlefield Advancements Individualized Warfare DNA Manipulation AI/RAS 3 D/4 D Printing Hypersonics/Rail Guns Competition Emerging Domains Conflict Changing Environments and Demographics Dense Urban Space Social Media Cyber Significant changes in the future OE transform the character of warfare…faster, longer ranges, more destructive Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 7

UNCLASSIFIED Operational Environment Implications Contested in all domains and environments. Adversaries: • Threaten U. S. advantages in the air, maritime, space, cyberspace and land domains, as well as the electromagnetic spectrum and information environment • Attack systems critical for integrating joint operations Increased Lethality. Adversaries: • Employ weapon systems with increased capability and capacity • Challenge friendly forces’ overmatch across an expanded battlefield Complex Environment. Adversaries: • • Operate in densely populated areas Accelerate adoption of new technological and information developments Use of regular and irregular forces with criminal and terrorist enterprises Modernize or obtain of weapons of mass destruction/effect Challenged Deterrence. Adversaries: • Integrate all elements of national power [DIME] • Use proxies and surrogates to avoid direct confrontation • Neutralize Joint Force strengths from deployment through employment Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 8

UNCLASSIFIED Select TRADOC G 2 Resources TRADOC G-2 Operational Environment (OE) site: https: //community. apan. org/wg/tradoc-g 2/ Mad Scientist Community of Practice: https: //community. apan. org/wg/tradoc-g 2/mad-scientist/ Foreign Military Studies Office (OE Watch) https: //community. apan. org/wg/tradoc-g 2/fmso/ My Contact Info Ian Sullivan TRADOC Assistant G 2 Ian. m. sullivan 4. civ@mail. mil (757) 501 -6211 Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 9

UNCLASSIFIED Discussion (U) This document is the property of U. S. Army TRADOC and may be distributed to Do. D and Do. D contractors. Authorized for disclosure to the following specified foreign governments and international organizations: Canada, France, Germany, Poland, Thailand the Philippines as determined on 26 August 2019. Further distribution only as directed by Commander, TRADOC or higher Do. D authority. Release of this information does not imply any commitment on the part of the U. S. Government to provide additional information. This information is provided with the understanding that the recipient government will make similar information available to the U. S. Government upon request. Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 10