The Nuclear Club Whos in Whos out And

The Nuclear Club Who’s in? Who’s out? And where do we go from here?

From Einstein to the A-Bomb • 1930’s- Early research into atomic fission. • 1940’s- US and Germany race to develop nuclear weapons. • “Manhattan Project” in US

1945 • 1 st US test of atomic bomb [“Trinity”] • US drops 2 atomic bombs on Japan to end WWII

The Cold War: 1945 – 1990 • Massive nuclear build-up by US and USSR • Espionage • “Mutually assured destruction” [MAD]

1950 s • US and Soviet Union develop more powerful nuclear fusion weapons. [Thermonuclear] • Atmospheric testing

IAEA: UN Nuclear watchdog • • Founded 1957 – International Atomic Energy Administration Nuclear verification and security; safety; technology transfer. Nuclear safety after Three Mile Island Chernobyl. Challenges possible proliferation - North Korea, Iraq, Iran http: //www. iaea. org/

Cold War nuclear crisis: 1962

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: • Non-proliferation • Disarmament • The right to peacefully use nuclear technology • 181 nations have signed • Non-signers: India, Pakistan, Israel • North Korea – withdrew in 2003 http: //www. fas. org/nuke/control/npt/

NPT: Issues • Reviewed every 5 years • 2000 – Nuclear powers agreed to eliminate nuclear arsenals • 2005 – Concerns by non-aligned nations that NATO nuclear-sharing agreement violates NPT. • Nuclear powers not doing enough to reduce their arsenals

Today: Nuclear numbers

Emerging threats: Direct nuclear confrontations • • • India – Pakistan US – Iran Israel – Arab nations North Korea – Japan/China/US/Others? China – North Korea? Russia?

Emerging threats • Post-Cold-War “first-use” policy by NATO and Russia • Continuing modernization of nuclear arsenals

Emerging threats • Security and safety of nuclear stockpiles • “Loose nukes”

Emerging threats • Nuclear espionage • Illegal sales • Smuggling In 2004, Dr. A. Q. Kahn, of Pakistan, admitted to selling nuclear technologies to Libya, Iran and North Korea

Nuclear Terrorism • Dirty bombs • High explosives plus radioactive material

Emerging threats: New nuclear nations

Emerging threats: Accidents

Nuclear weapons: The next generation • “Small” nuclear weapons • “Bunker-buster” • US - $5 billion per year for weapons research, development, and production $3. 8 billion during the Cold War.

Steps to prevent nuclear terrorism • Secure nuclear warheads and materials • Stop nuclear smuggling • Stabilize employment for nuclear personnel • Monitor nuclear stockpiles • Reduce nuclear stockpiles • End production http: //www. nti. org/

How much progress has been made so far? The good news… • Glaring security gaps have been addressed in many places • Thousands of bombsworth of nuclear materials have been destroyed • Radiation-detection equipment in place at many border crossings around the world • Many nuclear scientists have been re-employed in non-weapons programs.

Progress: the bad news… • US/India nuclear deal includes no provision for nuclear security • Secure storage facility in Russia still empty • Thousands of nuclear weapons and materials in insecure buildings and bunkers • Thousands of nuclear workers with potentially dangerous nuclear knowledge do not have legitimate jobs • 10, 000+ bombs’-worth of plutonium still out there

Some questions to consider • Why should any country be banned from having nuclear weapons? • Is it the inherent right of a country to develop any weapons it feels necessary to defend itself? • Is it even possible to ban a particular category of weapons? • If you keep a country out of the Nuclear Club, do you lose the ability to influence its decisions regarding nuclear weapons?

More questions • If the US—the world’s strongest power—feels the need to continue developing nukes, how can we expect less powerful countries to resist getting them? • Can nuclear weapons themselves be viewed as a deterrent to war? • Or, is “deterrence, ” in effect, an incentive for more proliferation? • What are the ethical and moral considerations for scientists who help develop new nuclear technologies? • What role could your country play in making today’s nuclear world safer?

The Nuclear Club: What’s next?