The Next Plague Bruce Curran The Next Plague

The Next Plague Bruce Curran

The Next Plague Top Five Historical Plagues

The Next Plague #5 The American Plagues 16 th Century Smallpox and Measles Syphilis

The Next Plague #4 The Great Plague of London 1665 -1666

The Next Plague #3 Plague of Justinian 541 -542

The Next Plague #2 The Third Pandemic 1855 - 1950

The Next Plague #1 The Black Death 1347 - 1351

Global Epidemiology List of WHO Preventable Diseases 1. Anthrax 2. Measles 3. Rubella 4. Cholera 5. Meningococcal 6. Influenza 7. Diphtheria 8. Mumps 9. Tetanus 10. Hepatitis A 11. Pertussis 12. Tuberculosis 13. Hepatitis B 14. Pneumoccocal disease 15. Typhoid fever 16. Hepatitis E 17. Poliomyelitis 18. Tick-borne encephalitis 19. Haemophilus influenzae type b 20. Rabies 21. Varicella and herpes zoster (shingles) 22. Human papilloma-virus 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. Rotavirus gastroenteritis Yellow fever Japanese encephalitis Malaria Dengue fever Others not on WHO List: 1. Anthrax 2. Plague 3. Q fever 4. Smallpox

Hepatitis and Malaria

The Next Plague

The Next Plague Basic Epidemiology Travel Local Immunity and Adaptations Sickle Cell AIDS Immunity The Common Cold Somewhere Else

The Next Plague Prevention & Immunization: Pick One Ebola Swine Flu AIDS The Common Flu

The Next Plague What Are The Odds? One in 100 million One in 6 million One in a million One in 5000

The Next Plague Influenza Did You Get a Shot? Why Should You Get a Shot? Epitopes and Prevention Time of the Year and Distance

Influenza Pandemics 1918 -1919 The Great Flu Epidemic ● 25% of the world population was sick ● 600, 000 -800, 000 died in the United States ● Worldwide 20 -25 million died

Influenza Pandemics 1957 -1958 ● Worldwide 2 million people died ● 70, 000 died in the United States

Influenza Pandemics 1968 - 1969 The Hong Kong Flu ● Worldwide 1 million people died ● 34, 000 died in the United States

Influenza Pandemics 2009 - 2010 H 1 N 1 ● Worldwide 289, 000 people died ● 12, 000 died in the United States

History of AIDS 1900 -2017

History of AIDS

The History of AIDS Origin of the Disease San Francisco 1980 s Jim Bunn & WHO Early Research

History of AIDS

History of AIDS HIV Drug Availability 1993 - 0 1994 - 1996 - 1 1996 - 1998 - 3 1998 -1999 - 6 2000 -2017 - 30+

History of AIDS

Hepatitis and Malaria 1900 -2017

Hepatitis A Hepatitis B Hepatitis C

Hepatitis A Facts Transmission: Clinical Outcomes: Water Recovery - Usual Outcome Food Prolonged - <5% Mollusk Relapse - 10% - 15% Institutional Fulminant - 0. 2%

Hepatitis The Hepatitis B Virus

Hepatitis

Malaria

Malaria Climate change will allow malaria to spread into new areas. This map shows the new areas where the Malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum, will likely be able to spread by 2050 based on the Hadley Centre model's high scenario. Areas shown in yellow indicate the current distribution of malaria. Areas shown in red indicate areas where climate will be suitable for malaria by 2050. Other areas may become free of malaria as climate changes. Courtesy of Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal

The Next Plague Tick Borne Illness Or Lyme Syndrome Diseases

Tick Borne Illness or Lyme

Tick Borne Illness or Lyme

Tick Borne Illness or Lyme

The distribution of tick sightings across the United States between 1907– 1996 and 1907– 2015.

Four Levels of Public Health Threats Public Health Advisory - a potential public health threat has been identified. Public Health Notice - a public health threat is spreading within a specific population or community. Public Health Alert - a public health threat has the potential to spread rapidly nationwide. Public Health Emergency – a public health threat has reached epidemic proportions requiring drastic public health measures.

The Next Plague Concluding Thoughts