The New Ricardians Team Marina Steininger Team leader

The New Ricardians

Team Marina Steininger: Team leader Marc Wallach: Criticizer Audrey Au Nargiza Rufina Yong Lyn: Kasymova: Gafeeva: Analyst Second Team. Analyst Leader Natalya Askerova: Criticizer Valerii Savgorodnii: Writer Svetlana Kiriliuk: Technolog y Expert Liubov Kravchenko: Writer Oleg Nevzorov: Technology Expert Alexey Rybalka: Technology Expert Olga Lashko: Logistics Expert Maria Shilina: Logistics Expert

Vision 2040 Free movement of goods, services and capital within the EU and EAEU and Mainland China. service s good s capital

EU - EAEU Trade Environment Digitalizatio n Shorten Economic Cycles Globalizatio n Increasing Economic Crises

Strategic Economic Sectors Energy Production /Technology Renewable energy Diversification of energy suppliers Robotics & Big data Additive Technology Climate change High implementation costs Technology race Socio-economic inequality Transport Finance New railway routes High-speed transport systems Crowding out of other sectors Unsustainable transportation Blockchain Crypto currency Black market economy Downfall Central banks

Scenario Deep and Comprehensive FTA from Lisboa to Vladivostok (and beyond) with new legal framework Shallow FTAs: Bilateral, Differential or Non-preferential No new cooperation

Recomendations • Close technical cooperation (interdependent projects) • Technical Grid Integration • Local energy source employment • • Reduce bureaucracy Cross-border connection hubs Intercontinental discussion platforms Reroute railway-systems • Common Eurasian IT ecosystem • Increasing B 2 C, B 2 B, B 2 G interaction • Internet security: General regulatory framework for "digital" risks. • Blockchain technology • Crypto currency Sustainable Development of Eurasian Economy

Technology map Energetics / Transport Reactors City on fast amphibio neurons us Aero spa ce B y iote ch no lo g Long-term (until 2040) (until 2030) Based on CMASF materials (until 2020) Radar of prospects Synthetic motor fuel based on coal Shale technologies Floating plants of liquefied natural gas Synthetic motor fuel based on natural gas Blockchain in many spheres of life 5 «Smart House» G M 2 M Autopilot on cars ICT Organic electronic s Virtual reality Open Industri data al 3 d print Memristors Big flexibility of production Short-term lines Internet of things (until 2020) Medium-term (until 2030) Robots androids ri st du h In l tec a Trains on a magnetic Supercushion Biofuel of Ecranoplan rechargeab Active the new s le batteries developme nt of the Biofuel of generation Arctic shelf the 3 rd Regenerative generation “Smart. Gri medicines Genetic d” based on Industrial biomaterials human cells Underground production Neurointerfa of the Biosensors and ce of "fuel ice" passport underwater Nuclear Robots make Small roads power Speed operations nuclear plant for Tunnels reactors under control Manipulation Hypersonic spacecra of the aircraft ft Selfgenome of contained Landing on cells military Big data Mars installatio Intellectualizat from ion of military satellites Anti-n means asteroid Short-term protection Medium-term Industrial production of carbon nanotubes Long-term (until 2040)

Projects

EU-EAEU-OBOR Monitoring Body for Economic Projects 2

Problem & Project Matrix • Lack of a monitoring mechanism in the framework of the EAEU Nonenforcement of integration associations or selective enforcement • Institutional fragmentation • Asymmetry of the regional economy Conference Expert Committee Analytics Department Timely response to the inability or unwillingness of the individual member state to fulfil agreements Principles of Mutually: beneficial cooperation equality of the parties objectivity Integration associations, the expert community, the state, business structures

Project implementation timeline The method of regulation are requirements � Process performance monitoring will be more effective with the use of new technologies, including Big Data, cloud systems � 2024 signed a cooperation agreement, defined cooperation and developed legal regulation for the establishment 2032 functioning, the beginning of the active phase of transition to the use of the Romano. Germanic legal system in transactions 2040 on the basis of international commercial arbitration

Ivolved Stakeholders � Those who interfere � USA, UK � Those who contribute China, Russia, business structure

Budget � contributions of member States and integration associations � (it is possible to consider the attachment of the amount of the contribution to the degree of effectiveness of the cooperation

Risks & Solutions � � � The execution process will be more effective Disappear the duality of institutions Connectivity garmonization Political risk Geopolitical risk Bias solutions prospects possible enhanced cooperation (Ukraine ? Moldova? Georgia? )e or other enterprises of the integration type (SCO? BRICS) on the basis of the practice of a special body could be created for international commercial arbitration? using practice Romano-Germanic system of law / the new e will have the revolutionary nature of the legal and economic spheres investment the elimination of the asymmetrical

Networks 4. 0 4

Problems & Project Matrix Problem: Inefficient transport networks Re-route current railway lines; Connection hubs; Reduce bureaucracy EU-EAEU-ASIA What Why Who How Increase connectivity increase trade Increase transport investments

Project implementation timeline Preparation 2020 • mechanisms to ensure “no obstacles” cross countries cooperation • Development of the cross-border connection hubs (strategically located) • Engineering and designing of the most efficient re -routing • Budget and ratio of countries -participants Construction 2030 • Best available technology selection (Phases approach) • Infrastructure construction • Project launch 0 emissions transportation 2040 • Further development towards no emission transportation means

Involved Stakeholders - Population of the countries (convenient traveling) - Countries located on the new route (Job creation and more income as higher traffic) - Cargo shipping companies (fast alternative to air delivery) - Tourists and consumers - Other transportation means owners (airplanes) - Government of the involved countries (security risks) - Countries out of the route (losing income)

Budget �Not exclusively publicly funded (grant finance) �Permanent joint budget �Public-Private � Already Partnerships (PPP) successfully implemented by the EU

Risks & Solutions RISKS SOLUTIONS 1. Unsustainable transportation 1. Restrict minimum price for CO 2 emissions (UN Climate Convention) 2. Crowding out other sectors 2. Establish observation committees

Conclusion

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