The NASA Modeling Analysis and Prediction MAP Program

The NASA Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (MAP) Program Don Anderson NASA Headquarters CMAI Meeting NASA GISS April 20, 2006

2011 Overarching Vision “… a new approach is needed for climate model development. It is not practical for a single group to have expertise in all the components of a global model, as the models are becoming more complex and include more physical and biological processes. Models for long-term climate must extend from the deep ocean to the upper atmosphere, and components of the global system that were once treated as specified boundary conditions or neglected altogether must now be simulated and allowed to interact with other parts of the model. …” GSFC Earth-Sun Exploration Division 2006 Strategic Plan

2011 Vision - Science Drivers • Coupled Earth System models and advanced data assimilation systems • • • large ensembles (perturbed initial conditions, multi-Center initial states, multi-Center models) Re-emphasis of data (satellite and in-situ observations for validation and simulation; preparation for new missions) • • • Enhanced resolution (horizontal, vertical, temporal, spectral) Estimates of Uncertainty/reliability • • Contributions to climate model development from diverse expert groups; multiple discipline (chemistry, pollution transport, land, sea-ice, atmosphere…) collaboration Implementation of 4 D Variational data assimilation system with new data types Open standards Increased model & analysis fidelity • • System components fully interactive: coupled ocean, atmosphere, land, sea-ice, chemistry, biosphere executing multiple ‘what if’ scenarios Models easily reconfigured for short-term prediction (weather & extreme events) to seasonal to long-term climate, global and regional Greatly enhanced validation efforts with rapid access to data and model output from multiple Centers Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) Enhanced tools for testing new methods at reduced effort and cost • Combinatorial problem in test and evaluation (many components, many versions requiring “system-level” validation)

… Program or Branch #N External NRA Proposals Program or Branch #3 Core Integration Team Program or Branch #2 Environment Crosscutting Themes Focus Areas Model, Analysis, Prediction Program / Multi-investigator proposals Program or Branch #1 MAP Modeling ESMF MAP NRA & the MAP Modeling Environment(ME) CMAI GMI ECCO II GISS Model E Modeling 1 Modeling 2 Modeling 3 Modeling N

MAP grant example: Schematic of the Carbon Data Assimilation System Some ‘Element’ partners: JPL, Harvard, MIT, GISS, CSI, WHOI, Ames, MSFC [DOE, NSF, NOAA, NASA] => ESMF

GEOS-5 GCM STRUCTURE HISTORY CAP COUPLED ODAS Data AGCM Data OGCM AGCM OGCM COLUMN PHYSICS DYNAMICS MOIST RADIATION DYNAMICS TURB SOLAR FVCORE IR SURFACE CHEM LAND CATCH VEGDYN ICE LAKE (Ts, Fi. . . ) OCEAN SKIN (Ts, Fi. . . ) GWD Poseidon MOM 4 MITogcm Poseidon CICE OBIO

ESS Planned Hurricane Field Campaign: NAMMA-06 • Out of Africa: African Easterly Waves are the progenitors of many late-season, strong category hurricanes that strike the U. S. • Leverages off AMMA SOP-3 and will be based in Cape Verde • Multidisciplinary approach involving Weather, Water & Energy, Composition foci • Partnering with European consortium, NOAA HRD • NAMMA-06 science in line with CCSP objectives • Platforms to include DC-8, Aerosonde, TOGA & NPOL radars, micropulse lidars African SAL: Impact on tropical cyclogenesis - hypothesize to be a hurricane suppressant, in an ocean marginally suitable for hurricane generation; examine SAL impact on microphyiscs, thermodynamic instability, shear, airmass dessication

MAP Modeling Environment -2006 1. Testing a “new” coupled model configuration: a comparison of different ocean components Goal to support multiple global “what-if” analysis Fully coupled ocean-atmosphere Long time series analysis and comparison to satellite data record 2. Coupling a regional model with a global model Goal to illustrate global to regional interface & to demonstrate capability to support real-time field experiments ( Support NAMMA, A-Train, TRMM in both 1&2 ) 3. MERRA: Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications Develop, validate, and disseminate a global retrospective analysis dataset. The project time period will cover the modern era of remotely sensed data, from 1979 through the present. The special focus of the atmospheric assimilation will be the hydrological cycle.

MAPME 2006 System Prototyping 1. DATA NODES COMPUTING NODES NASA Ames Mt. View, California NAS MODEL OUTPUT PORTALS MSFC OUTPUT PORTALS SPo. RT Facility NASA Marshall Huntsville, Alabama Ocean Color Group Satellite Data Other Model Output GEOS 5/OGCM/ MOM 4 GEOS 5/MODEL MOM 4 GEOS 5/OGCM/ POSEIDON WRF/MODEL POSEIDON All model Outputs SIVO/NCCS Analysis Visualization EXPERIMENT: Embed WRF w/ GEOS 5/OGCM/ POSEIDON GEOS 5/DAS POSEIDON Prepare Map & Movies & Web Access WRF EXTERNAL MODEL OUTPUT PORTALS Graphics, Movies, Satellite Data SCIENCE ANALYSIS

MAPME 2006 System Prototyping 2. DISTRIBUTED COMPUTING NODES INTEL Corp Portland, Oregon NASA Ames Mt. View, California Conventional Network (600 Mb/s) NASA Goddard Greenbelt, Maryland NEXT-GENERATION NETWORKS National Lambda Rail (10 - 40 Gb/s) NCCS/NAS MODEL OUTPUT PORTALS SCIENCE ANALYSIS Model to model & model to data validation / comparisons Northrop Grumman Mc. Lean, Virginia EXPERIMENT: Configure GEOS 5 w/ Different Ocean Models GEOS 5/OGCM/ POSEIDON DAAC DATA PORTALS GEOS 5/OGCM/ MOM 4 EXTERNAL COLLABORATORS GFDL/NCDC MODEL OUTPUT PORTALS

Summary of Capabilities ESMF Re-configurable models turn on/off components, on/off outputs Development user settable Environment via web service* Cross-site workflow (data/jobs) Remotely initiated via web schedule, monitor, manage with greater autonomy across multi-site cyber-infrastructure Experimentation Environment Configure model, set up work flow all remotely initiated via Web - ultimately SOA Grey denotes Option turned off Visualization & Analysis Servers providing on-demand support Substantial compute resources connected by high-speed networks load-balanced scheduled vs. queued transparent site selection Robust and non-intrusive infrastructure support (security working across domains, network performance QOS, …)

Integrating Earth System Modeling and Observations Coupled Full-Earth Modeling and Data Assimilation System for Earth-Sun Science 2006 NASA MAP Modeling Environment 2005 Project Hurricane GEOS-5 JCSDA/GSI fv. GCM (GEOS 4) Project Columbia

MAP Modeling Environment Development Path “The Holy Grail” Fully Interactive Earth System Model Multi-component Models Component Models Process Models Knights of the NASA Earth Science Community

Don’s Vision