The Most Important Graph in the World US
![The Most Important Graph in the World: US Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003 Gretchen The Most Important Graph in the World: US Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003 Gretchen](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-1.jpg)
![Talk Outline • Quick review of National Transfer Accounts project • Introduce concepts, data Talk Outline • Quick review of National Transfer Accounts project • Introduce concepts, data](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-2.jpg)
![National Transfer Accounts (NTA) • www. ntaccounts. org • National Income and Product Accounts National Transfer Accounts (NTA) • www. ntaccounts. org • National Income and Product Accounts](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-3.jpg)
![Life Cycle Deficits, 2003 Life Cycle Deficits, 2003](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-4.jpg)
![Life Cycle Deficits, 2003 Age 29 57 Life Cycle Deficits, 2003 Age 29 57](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-5.jpg)
![Components of Labor Income, 2003 Components of Labor Income, 2003](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-6.jpg)
![Components of Consumption, 2003 Components of Consumption, 2003](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-7.jpg)
![Data • Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CEX) • Non-institutional population only, for now • Early Data • Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CEX) • Non-institutional population only, for now • Early](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-8.jpg)
![Missing Institutional Population • Missing many elderly in nursing homes, and other institutionalized • Missing Institutional Population • Missing many elderly in nursing homes, and other institutionalized •](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-9.jpg)
![Methods • Two Parts: – Estimate the age shape – Adjust to NIPA “control Methods • Two Parts: – Estimate the age shape – Adjust to NIPA “control](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-10.jpg)
![Dollars (US, 2000) Labor Income and Consumption, 1888 -2003 Age Dollars (US, 2000) Labor Income and Consumption, 1888 -2003 Age](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-11.jpg)
![Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003 Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-12.jpg)
![Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003 Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-13.jpg)
![Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003 Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-14.jpg)
![Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003 Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-15.jpg)
![Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003 Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-16.jpg)
![Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003 Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-17.jpg)
![Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003 Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-18.jpg)
![Components of Labor Income Components of Labor Income](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-19.jpg)
![Components of Consumption Components of Consumption](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-20.jpg)
![Summary of Changes • Young – Size of deficits increased somewhat – Composition changed Summary of Changes • Young – Size of deficits increased somewhat – Composition changed](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-21.jpg)
![Summary Measures: Average Age of Profile • Constant age distribution (US 1950 is used Summary Measures: Average Age of Profile • Constant age distribution (US 1950 is used](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-22.jpg)
![Summary Measures: Age of Life Cycle Deficit Transitions • From first to last age Summary Measures: Age of Life Cycle Deficit Transitions • From first to last age](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-23.jpg)
![Paying for the Life Cycle Deficit • Since 1929 at least, we have never Paying for the Life Cycle Deficit • Since 1929 at least, we have never](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-24.jpg)
![What’s Next? • Fine tuning estimates presented today • Cross-national comparison • Applications of What’s Next? • Fine tuning estimates presented today • Cross-national comparison • Applications of](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-25.jpg)
- Slides: 25
![The Most Important Graph in the World US Life Cycle Deficits 1888 2003 Gretchen The Most Important Graph in the World: US Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003 Gretchen](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-1.jpg)
The Most Important Graph in the World: US Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003 Gretchen Donehower UC Berkeley Department of Demography September 27, 2006
![Talk Outline Quick review of National Transfer Accounts project Introduce concepts data Talk Outline • Quick review of National Transfer Accounts project • Introduce concepts, data](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-2.jpg)
Talk Outline • Quick review of National Transfer Accounts project • Introduce concepts, data and methods with current life cycle deficit age profiles (2003) • Review life cycle deficits back to 1888 • Applications of age profiles and future research directions
![National Transfer Accounts NTA www ntaccounts org National Income and Product Accounts National Transfer Accounts (NTA) • www. ntaccounts. org • National Income and Product Accounts](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-3.jpg)
National Transfer Accounts (NTA) • www. ntaccounts. org • National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) – aggregate stocks and flows in an economy • NIPA + age + transfer framework = NTA – who owns the stocks, who creates the flows? – how are flows transferred among individuals? • Thanks NIA, thanks Ron!
![Life Cycle Deficits 2003 Life Cycle Deficits, 2003](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-4.jpg)
Life Cycle Deficits, 2003
![Life Cycle Deficits 2003 Age 29 57 Life Cycle Deficits, 2003 Age 29 57](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-5.jpg)
Life Cycle Deficits, 2003 Age 29 57
![Components of Labor Income 2003 Components of Labor Income, 2003](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-6.jpg)
Components of Labor Income, 2003
![Components of Consumption 2003 Components of Consumption, 2003](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-7.jpg)
Components of Consumption, 2003
![Data Consumer Expenditure Surveys CEX Noninstitutional population only for now Early Data • Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CEX) • Non-institutional population only, for now • Early](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-8.jpg)
Data • Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CEX) • Non-institutional population only, for now • Early samples not nationally representative – 1888: Industrial workers and their children – 1917: Industrial workers and their families • Some profiles have to be estimated outside of household surveys – Public education consumption – Government-provided health care consumption
![Missing Institutional Population Missing many elderly in nursing homes and other institutionalized Missing Institutional Population • Missing many elderly in nursing homes, and other institutionalized •](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-9.jpg)
Missing Institutional Population • Missing many elderly in nursing homes, and other institutionalized • Their consumption of some things will be lower, others higher • Probably not a big income profile impact
![Methods Two Parts Estimate the age shape Adjust to NIPA control Methods • Two Parts: – Estimate the age shape – Adjust to NIPA “control](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-10.jpg)
Methods • Two Parts: – Estimate the age shape – Adjust to NIPA “control totals” • Age shape estimation: – Direct measurement (earnings) – Consumer weights (most private consumption) – Age regression (private education & health) – Proxy variable (fringe benefits) – External estimates (public education & health)
![Dollars US 2000 Labor Income and Consumption 1888 2003 Age Dollars (US, 2000) Labor Income and Consumption, 1888 -2003 Age](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-11.jpg)
Dollars (US, 2000) Labor Income and Consumption, 1888 -2003 Age
![Scaled Life Cycle Deficits 1888 2003 Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-12.jpg)
Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003
![Scaled Life Cycle Deficits 1888 2003 Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-13.jpg)
Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003
![Scaled Life Cycle Deficits 1888 2003 Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-14.jpg)
Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003
![Scaled Life Cycle Deficits 1888 2003 Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-15.jpg)
Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003
![Scaled Life Cycle Deficits 1888 2003 Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-16.jpg)
Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003
![Scaled Life Cycle Deficits 1888 2003 Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-17.jpg)
Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003
![Scaled Life Cycle Deficits 1888 2003 Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-18.jpg)
Scaled Life Cycle Deficits, 1888 -2003
![Components of Labor Income Components of Labor Income](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-19.jpg)
Components of Labor Income
![Components of Consumption Components of Consumption](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-20.jpg)
Components of Consumption
![Summary of Changes Young Size of deficits increased somewhat Composition changed Summary of Changes • Young – Size of deficits increased somewhat – Composition changed](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-21.jpg)
Summary of Changes • Young – Size of deficits increased somewhat – Composition changed to more education • Old – Consistently larger deficits over time – More health-related consumption, public and private • Working Ages – Recently, fewer years making smaller surplus?
![Summary Measures Average Age of Profile Constant age distribution US 1950 is used Summary Measures: Average Age of Profile • Constant age distribution (US 1950 is used](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-22.jpg)
Summary Measures: Average Age of Profile • Constant age distribution (US 1950 is used here) • Recent strong increases in average ages of consuming AND producing.
![Summary Measures Age of Life Cycle Deficit Transitions From first to last age Summary Measures: Age of Life Cycle Deficit Transitions • From first to last age](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-23.jpg)
Summary Measures: Age of Life Cycle Deficit Transitions • From first to last age of surplus (labor income > consumption) • Recent shrinking of time span to accumulate surplus
![Paying for the Life Cycle Deficit Since 1929 at least we have never Paying for the Life Cycle Deficit • Since 1929 at least, we have never](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-24.jpg)
Paying for the Life Cycle Deficit • Since 1929 at least, we have never paid for all of consumption with labor earnings • So we must be using capital income and borrowing • Even more in recent years?
![Whats Next Fine tuning estimates presented today Crossnational comparison Applications of What’s Next? • Fine tuning estimates presented today • Cross-national comparison • Applications of](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image/03fe37534fd1bc26cda00170f437370f/image-25.jpg)
What’s Next? • Fine tuning estimates presented today • Cross-national comparison • Applications of consumption and labor income profiles – Modeling economic change in the context of demographic change (demographic dividends) – Budget projections – How profiles respond to institutional change • On to transfers and reallocations! (The really fun stuff…)
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