The Mad Hedge Fund Trader Too Far Too

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader “Too Far, Too Fast” With John Thomas from San Francisco, CA March 4, 2015 www. madhedgefundtrader. com

MHFT Global Strategy Luncheons Buy tickets at www. madhedgefundtrader. com Honolulu, Hawaii April 3, 2015 Chicago April 30, 2015

Trade Alert Performance Up on the Year! *January MTD +0. 53% Final *February MTD +7. 73% Final *March MTD +0. 65% *2015 Year to Date +8. 91% compared to +1. 5% for the Dow Average *Trailing 1 year return +30. 8% *First 220 weeks of Trading +161. 01%! *12 out of 13 consecutive profitable Trade Alerts, 4. 33% from new All time high!

Portfolio Review Running a Small Hedged Risk Averse Book Risk On World is Getting Better (SPY) 3/$200 -$204 call spread (CSCO) 3/$27 -$27 call spread 10. 00% 1 2 3 4 5 Risk Off World is Getting Worse 6 7 8 (GLD) 3/$107 -$112 Call spread (FXE) 4/$112 -$115 put spread total net position -10. 00% 9

0. 00% 2/8/15 12/8/14 10/8/14 8/8/14 6/8/14 4/8/14 2/8/14 12/8/13 10/8/13 8/8/13 6/8/13 4/8/13 2/8/13 12/8/12 10/8/12 8/8/12 6/8/12 4/8/12 2/8/12 12/8/11 10/8/11 8/8/11 6/8/11 4/8/11 2/8/11 12/8/10 Paid Subscriber Trailing 12 Month Return +30. 8% 180. 00% 160. 00% 140. 00% 120. 00% 100. 00% 80. 00% Series 1 60. 00% 40. 00% 20. 00%

/1 0 8/ 11 4/ 8/ 11 6/ 8/ 11 8/ 8/ 1 10 1 /8 /1 12 1 /8 /1 1 2/ 8/ 12 4/ 8/ 12 6/ 8/ 12 8/ 8/ 1 10 2 /8 /1 12 2 /8 /1 2 2/ 8/ 13 4/ 8/ 13 6/ 8/ 13 8/ 8/ 1 10 3 /8 /1 12 3 /8 /1 3 2/ 8/ 14 4/ 8/ 14 6/ 8/ 14 8/ 8/ 1 10 4 /8 /1 12 4 /8 /1 4 2/ 8/ 15 2/ 12 /8 50 Months Since Inception Averaged annualized +37. 9% 180. 00% 160. 00% 140. 00% 120. 00% 100. 00% 80. 00% Series 1 60. 00% 40. 00% 20. 00%

Strategy Outlook*Green shoots in Europe turn into a raging global rally *Plummeting US rig count, Netanyahu speech trigger an oil and commodity short covering rally *The top in bonds is confirmed by strong bank rally *Euro and yen are probing new lows, ending 6 week digestion period *Gold bounces off bottom, but still range bound *Coming spring thaw brings new lows for ags

The Jim Parker View The Mad Day Trader-On sale for a $1, 500 upgrade Technical Set Up of the Week- Buy The game is still in in biotech everything else is a hard slog (GOOG) in dip Sell Short (SPY) for a $1 pick off Avoid everything else right now

The Global Economy-Green Shoots *“Green shoots” sprouting in Europe as business anticipates QE, the weak Euro is working, Markit Manufacturing PMI 53. 5 down to 52. 9 *US Q 4 GDP revised down from 2. 6% to 2. 2% *Nonstop February stock rally leaves buyers sitting on their hands *HSBC flash PMI rises over an expansionary 50, Bank of China cuts interest rates by 0. 25% to 5. 35%, second in three months *Weaker yen boosting Japanese economy, has become a hedge fund favorite *Australia GDP revised down from 2. 7% to 2. 5% on waning investment book, weak commodities

Weekly Jobless Claims – Breaking the Downtrend? +31, 000 to 313, 000

Bonds-A New Downtrend? *Recent failed rally suggests the top is in *Green shoots knocking down euro bonds as well *The big reallocation out of bonds into stocks has started *Big state level minimum wage hikes giving bond holders inflation jitters *Fed not to raise interest rates until 2016, reinforced by oil and bond yield crashes *Deflation is here to stay

Ten Year Treasuries (TLT) 1. 62% Is This the Top?

Ten Year Treasuries ($TNX) 2. 12% A breakout at hand?

30 Year Treasury Yield ($TYX)-Yield 2. 72% Ditto Here

Junk Bonds (HYG) 5. 66% Yield The New Lead Contract

2 X Short Treasuries (TBT) Up on the year!

Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) 3. 29% Yield

Emerging Market Debt (ELD) 4. 42% Yield

Municipal Bonds (MUB)-2. 69% yield, Mix of AAA, and A rated bonds

Stocks-Too Far, Too Fast *Stocks have run too far too fast globally, gaining almost every day in February *Friday nonfarm payroll could bust market out of this week’s sideways range, but ADP came in low *90% of technology companies beating earnings forecasts, 82% of health care companies *Profit taking and rotation out of Apple will trigger new leg to NASDAQ bull market *Energy stocks don’t believe the oil bottom is in, are approaching a buyable range *Best non oil sectors, like technology, health care, biotechnology and solar lead the rally *Volatility bouncing hard off of $12 handle

S&P 500 Breakout from Another Sideways consolidation long 3/$200 -$204 vertical bull call spread

Dow Average-Barely breaking out

NASDAQ (QQQ)-

Europe Hedged Equity (HEDJ)-New 7 Year Highs

(VIX)- Quadruple top in In

Russell 2000 (IWM)-Consolidating after Breakout

Technology Sector SPDR (XLK), (ROM)

Industrials Sector SPDR (XLI)

Health Care Sector SPDR (XLV), (RXL) another head and shoulders top

Financial Select SPDR (XLF)-Rally on Bond Bust

Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY)

Apple (AAPL) –

Cisco Systems (CSCO)- long 3/$27 -$29 vertical bull call spread-2 weeks to expiration China bans purchases of foreign technology

China (FXI)-

Japan (DXJ)-Hedged Japan Equity

Emerging Markets (EFA)Looking overbought

India (EPI) –New 4 Year High Reserve Bank of India delivers surprise 0. 25% interest rate cut to 7. 5%

Russia (RSX)-Loves the Oil Bid

Foreign Currencies-Getting Ready for Another Run? *Currencies have digested recent huge moves, are trying to break to new lows *Bond market sell off brings higher interest rate which are dollar supportive *Belligerent Netanyahu speech also gives dollar a boost *Reserve Bank of Australia fails to cut rates further, delivering a nice Aussie rally. *Japan has gone quiet

Euro ($XEU), (FXE), (EUO) long the 4/$112 -$115 vertical bear put spread Breaking down-Targeting $105, and then $85

Long Dollar Index (UUP)-

British Pound (FXB)-

Japanese Yen (FXY)-

Short Japanese Yen ETF (YCS)

Australian Dollar (FXA) –New Four Year Low

Chinese Yuan- (CYB)

Emerging Market Currencies (CEW) Dragged down by commodities collapse

Energy-A Bottom In Place? We now have a low to trade against *New US fracking supplies still coming on stream, will add 500, 000 b/d over next six months, Cushing rapidly approaching capacity at 1. 5 million barrels *US rig count falling off a cliff *Inventories rising at tremendous rate, up 10. 3 million barrels this week, *Long term investors willing to look through a potential $30 handle and are buying stocks now *Sudden narrowing of contango may hint at approaching bottom *Energy stocks hinting that bottom is not in *Kevin Hall, best oil speculator, says bottom may be in

Oil-Trying to Find a Bottom

United States Oil Fund (USO)

Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE)

MLP’s (LINE)-Buy on the next Melt Down

Exxon (XOM)

Occidental Petroleum (OXY)

Conoco Phillips (COP)

Natural Gas (UNG)-

Copper-

Freeport Mc. Mo. Ran (FCX)-New Lows

Precious Metals-A Bear Market Rally *The rally is over for now, the $50 bounce is in *Chinese gold buying fell 38% in 2014, as corruption crackdown hits, giving us another year of bear market *India increased import my 55% in January *”RISK ON” means unload gold, “RISK OFF” means buy gold, so keep the gold long as a hedge *Chinese lunar New Year is over, buyers are back *Buy under $1, 200 as a hedge against next “RISK OFF” selloff

Gold- long 3/$107 -$112 bull call spread-expires in 2 weeks

Barrick Gold (ABX)-

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF- (GDX) New Friends

Silver (SLV)-

Silver Miners (SIL)

Agriculture *Coming spring thaw pushing prices to new lows, disappearance of winter kill • *DBA hits new lows! Yikes! *US grain now the world’s most expensive, thanks to strong dollar, last Egypt buy went to Russia and the Ukraine, not us, thanks to cheap ruble *2015 will be another record crop without extreme weather *Pass for now, bigger fish to fry elsewhere

(CORN) –

(SOYB)-

Ag Commodities ETF (DBA)-New Lows!

Real Estate-High Prices Shrinking the Market *Cold weather slams home sales *Market ran ahead of affordability 2012 -2014, waiting for incomes to catch up *January existing home sales down -4. 9% to 4. 89 million units, inventory shortage blamed, driving prices higher *January new homes sales -0. 2%, to 481, 000, pending home Sales +1. 7% *Median price up +9. 4% to $294, 300, huge shortage of entry level homes, builder focus on high end homes *Huge student debt keeping entry level buyers out of market

December S&P/Case–Shiller Home Price Index +14% YOY down to +4. 5%, Still Slowing

US Home Construction Index (ITB)

Trade Sheet So What Do We Do About All This? *Stocks- buy the dips, with technology and health care leading, we’re running to new highs *Bonds- sell rallies *Commodities-stand aside, buy the next oil down leg *Currencies- sell Euro, Yen *Precious Metals –trade the low end range *Volatility-is bottoming, buy the next dip *The Ags –warm weather brings new lows *Real estate- stand aside, the dead cat bounce is done

To buy strategy luncheon tickets Please go to: www. madhedgefundtrader. com Next Strategy Webinar 12: 00 Wednesday, March 18, 2015 Live from San Francisco Good Luck and Good Trading!