The Long Tail A powerlaw Semilog Source Kevin

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The Long Tail

The Long Tail

A powerlaw

A powerlaw

Semilog Source: Kevin Marks, Technorati

Semilog Source: Kevin Marks, Technorati

Box office gross WTF? Film rank Source: Kevin Marks, Technorati

Box office gross WTF? Film rank Source: Kevin Marks, Technorati

Box office Savagely truncated Films

Box office Savagely truncated Films

The Long Tail

The Long Tail

Long Tail TV

Long Tail TV

Seen another way

Seen another way

History of the Long Tail • 1890: Sears Catalog • 1980: 800 numbers •

History of the Long Tail • 1890: Sears Catalog • 1980: 800 numbers • 1990: Supermarket shelves

Two steps of abundance • 1990: Explosion of variety of products. • Now: Explosion

Two steps of abundance • 1990: Explosion of variety of products. • Now: Explosion of information about products. You need both.

This isn’t just about entertainment • Google: Long Tail advertisers • e. Bay: Long

This isn’t just about entertainment • Google: Long Tail advertisers • e. Bay: Long Tail hard goods • Capital. One: Long Tail customers • Offshoring: Long Tail services

The economics of bits, not atoms Virtually unlimited capacity + Virtually free distribution =

The economics of bits, not atoms Virtually unlimited capacity + Virtually free distribution = Custom streams, not mass markets

The three forces of the Long Tail Minimize the transaction costs of consumption Democratize

The three forces of the Long Tail Minimize the transaction costs of consumption Democratize the tools of production

Connect consumers to amplify word of mouth

Connect consumers to amplify word of mouth

Six Research Projects

Six Research Projects

#1 How does the expansion of the tail affect the shape of the head?

#1 How does the expansion of the tail affect the shape of the head?

The changing shape of demand?

The changing shape of demand?

80/20 >>> 50/50?

80/20 >>> 50/50?

#2 Does the Long Tail have a fractal dimension?

#2 Does the Long Tail have a fractal dimension?

Small Worlds Minitails

Small Worlds Minitails

#3 How does price elasticity work in the Tail? Should prices go up (scarcity)

#3 How does price elasticity work in the Tail? Should prices go up (scarcity) or down (encouragement)? How do you know?

Two pricing models 1) Entertainment (want): 2) lower prices down the Tail 3) Information

Two pricing models 1) Entertainment (want): 2) lower prices down the Tail 3) Information (need): raise prices down the Tail

#4 Long Tail vs. Bottom of the Pyramid. Same effect or different?

#4 Long Tail vs. Bottom of the Pyramid. Same effect or different?

Purchasing Power (US$) Global population (m) >$20, 000 1 $1, 500 -$20, 000 2

Purchasing Power (US$) Global population (m) >$20, 000 1 $1, 500 -$20, 000 2 $1, 500 75 -100 1, 500 -1, 750 3 4, 000 <$1, 500 = 4 ?

#5 Primary Markets vs. Secondary Markets

#5 Primary Markets vs. Secondary Markets

Secondary markets • Used Goods • Gray Goods • Overstock Goods

Secondary markets • Used Goods • Gray Goods • Overstock Goods

#6 The tragically neglected economics of abundance

#6 The tragically neglected economics of abundance

The fundamental difference between the economics of old media and the economics of new

The fundamental difference between the economics of old media and the economics of new media is the difference between scarcity and abundance. The Long Tail is abundance.

Is infinite shelf space like Moore’s Law or like steam?

Is infinite shelf space like Moore’s Law or like steam?

1970 s: “Waste transistors” Now: “Waste storage, bandwidth”

1970 s: “Waste transistors” Now: “Waste storage, bandwidth”

www. thelongtail. com

www. thelongtail. com

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Phage head Tail sheath Tail fiber Bacterial cellPhage head Tail sheath Tail fiber Bacterial cell
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Tail Latency Networking The story thus far TailTail Latency Networking The story thus far Tail
Tail Escape Road Waterway Water Body Tail escapeTail Escape Road Waterway Water Body Tail escape
TAIL This versus That T Title TAIL DecideTAIL This versus That T Title TAIL Decide
Tail Cutter Wisely Cutting Tail Latency in CloudTail Cutter Wisely Cutting Tail Latency in Cloud
Interpreters Tail Recursion Tail Recursion An expression inInterpreters Tail Recursion Tail Recursion An expression in
Caught by the Tail Tail Risk Neutrality andCaught by the Tail Tail Risk Neutrality and
Tail and Nontail Recursion Tail Recursion Definition AdvantagesTail and Nontail Recursion Tail Recursion Definition Advantages
Tail Escape Road Waterway Water Body Tail escapeTail Escape Road Waterway Water Body Tail escape
Tail Escape Road Waterway Water Body Tail escapeTail Escape Road Waterway Water Body Tail escape
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Kevin Henkes Who is Kevin Henkes Kevin wasKevin Henkes Who is Kevin Henkes Kevin was
Statistical Source Letter Source Map Source Statistical SourceStatistical Source Letter Source Map Source Statistical Source
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B Source 1 Source 2 Source 4 SourceB Source 1 Source 2 Source 4 Source
Thinking Small to Get Big The long tailThinking Small to Get Big The long tail
The Long Tail Theory Lucy Richardson Emma SugarmanThe Long Tail Theory Lucy Richardson Emma Sugarman
Data citation monographs the long tail Roxanne MissinghamData citation monographs the long tail Roxanne Missingham
InClass Activity The Long Tail Roadmap Week 1InClass Activity The Long Tail Roadmap Week 1
Filling the Long Tail Eduard Hovy Carnegie MellonFilling the Long Tail Eduard Hovy Carnegie Mellon