The La Plata Basin The Plata Basin covers

The La Plata Basin • The Plata Basin covers about 3. 6 million km 2. • The La Plata Basin is the fifth largest in the world and second only to the Amazon Basin in South America in terms of geographical extent. • The principal sub-basins are those of the Parana, Paraguay and Uruguay rivers. • The La Plata Basin covers parts of five countries, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.

Global relevance of the la Plata Basin • LPB is home of more than 100 million people including the capital cities of 4 of the five countries, generating 70% of the five countries GNP. • The fluvial transport of the Paraguay-Paraná Waterway was of 13, 000 tons in 2004. • The hydroelectric potential is estimated at 92, 000 MW. There is more than 150 dams, and 60% of the hydroelectric potential is already used. • It is one of the largest food producers (cereals, soybeans and livestock) of the world.

La Plata Basin (LPB) Regional Hydroclimate Project Floods Land cover/Land use changes Biomass Burning What climatological and hydrological factors determine the frequency and spatial extent of floods and droughts? How predictable is the regional weather and climate variability and how predictable are their impacts on the hydrological, agricultural and social systems of the basin? What are the impacts of global climate change and land use change on regional weather, climate, hydrology and agriculture? To what extent can their impacts be predicted?

Standardized annual precipitation anomalies in Corrientes (Argentina) Vera and Silvestri (2009)

Predictability Marengo et al. (2003) SSTs Chaotic Atm Dyn LS-A Koster et al. (2000) Soil Moisture Memory (days) Dirmeyer et al. (2009)

Interannual Variability in the La Plata Basin (LPB) Positive OND precipitation anomalies in LPB -ENSO warm events -SAM negative phase (1970 -1999) LPB Correlations between precipitation anomalies in LPB and (left) SST anomalies and (right) 500 -h. Pa geopotential height anomalies. Significant values at 90, 95 and 99% are shaded. NCEP reanalysis data. (Vera and Silvestri 2009)

Correlations between OND precipitation anomalies in LPB and SST anomalies from WCRP/CMIP 3 models OBS Significant values at 90, 95 and 99% are shaded. (Vera and Silvestri, 2009)

Correlations between precipitation anomalies in LPB and 500 -h. Pa geopotential height anomalies from WCRP/CMIP 3 models OBS Significant values at 90, 95 and 99% are shaded. (Vera and Silvestri, 2009)

Interdecadal variations of the SAM and its impact on South America Correlations of the SAM index with in-situ precipitation (a-b), in-situ SLP (c-d), reanalyzed SLP (e-f), Z 500 (g-h), WIND 850 (i-j) and in-situ surface temperature (k-l). Colours indicate values statistically significant at 90% and 95% levels. Grey dots in cases of in-situ observations indicate stations with no significant correlation.

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Projects with support from national agencies Scientific Community in the La Plata Basin: Universities, Research Centers, Operational Centers or Agencies of the 5 countries Strongly linked at both regional and global levels! Interaction with national governments and stake holders European Union CLARIS - LPB A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in the La Plata Basin IAI Ecosystems, Biodiversity, Land Use and Cover, and Water Resources Other Anternational Agencies CYTED (Spain), NASA, NSF, NOAA (USA), etc. Interaction with CIC-GEF Framework Program for the sustainable management of the La Plata Basin water resources, in relation to climate variability and change

CLARIS LPB A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin The CLARIS LPB consortium CLARIS LPB Budget (~3. 5 M€)

CLARIS LPB Expected Impacts 1. Strengthening of the cooperation between European and South American multidisciplinary research communities 2. Improvement of climate change impact prediction capacity for the region through the setting-up of an ensemble of mutli-discipinary scenarios integrating in a coordinated way large-scale climate, regional climate, hydrological, landuse, and agriculture partners. 3. Dissemination of adaptation strategies (specifically designed for land-use, agriculture production, rural development (small farmers), hydropower, flood risk, wetlands ecological systems, river navigation, and near-river urbanization) based on ensembles of probable climate change scenarios for the period 20102040

CLARIS LPB Subprojects and Work. Packages • • Subproject 1: Management, dissemination and coordination activities Subproject 2: Past and future hydroclimate (Coordinator: Mario Nuñez, CONICET) • WP 3: Improving our description of recent past climate variability in La Plata Basin (Matilde Rusticucci, UBA and Phil Jones, UEA) WP 4: Hydroclimate past and future low-frequency variability, trends and shifts (Leila Carvalho, USP, and Myriam Khodri, IRD) WP 5: Regional Climate Change assessments for La Plata Basin (Hugo Berbery, CONICET and Hervé Le Treut, CNRS) WP 6: Processes and future evolution of extreme climate events in La Plata Basin (Iracema Cavalcanti, CPTEC and Andrea Carril, INGV/CONICET) Subproject 3: Project interface (Coordinator: Clare Goodess, UEA) • WP 1: Project management (J-P Boulanger, IRD) WP 2: Project dissemination and coordination activities (J. -P. Boulanger, IRD) WP 7: An interface for improving prediction capability of climate change societal impacts (Caio Coehlo, CPTEC and J. -P. Boulanger, IRD) Subproject 4: Socio-economic scenarios and adaptation/prevention strategies · WP 8: Land use change, agriculture and socio-economic implications (Sandro Schlindwein, UFSC, and Karen Tscherning, ZALF) WP 9: Water resources in La Plata Basin in the context of climate change (Vicente Barros, CONICET, and Massimo Guerrero, UNIBO)