The Kashmir Conflict UN Solutions By Suchin Gururangan

The Kashmir Conflict: UN Solutions By Suchin Gururangan, Kiron Lebeck, and Niel Lebeck

Overview • Background and history • Positions of involved parties • Recent developments • United Nations involvement • Potential solutions • Our proposal

The Basics of the Conflict • The Kashmir conflict is a dispute between India and Pakistan over control of the region of Kashmir • Each country lays claim to Kashmir due to nationalism and the controversial politics of the region • Conflicting ideologies and the refusal of either party to compromise have stymied efforts to reach a solution

Geography • Bordered by Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and China • Contains about 85, 000 square miles of land • Mountainous, sparsely populated region • Varied climate due to elevation • Most populated area is the Vale of Kashmir, on the Indian side • Currently, Kashmir is divided into three regions: one controlled by India, one controlled by Pakistan, and a small area controlled by China

Demographics • According to a 2001 census, Kashmir has about 10 million residents • 7. 5 million in Indian-controlled territory • 2. 5 million in Pakistani-controlled territory • Three-quarters of the population are Muslim, and the remaining one-quarter is predominantly Hindu

History of Occupation and Conflict • Great Britain controlled India from 1612 until 1947 • Under British rule, Kashmir was a princely state—it was directly ruled by a maharaja that answered to the British • 1947 -India gains independence from Britain • • The independence agreement partitions India into two nations, India and Pakistan The Maharaja of Kashmir accedes his province to India, prompting war between India and Pakistan • 1948 – UN Security Council passes resolution 47, mandating a ceasefire along the Line of Control (LOC) and paving the way for a potential plebiscite • 1957 -India declares all of Kashmir a state of the Indian Union • 1965 – Alleged infiltration attempts by Pakistan instigate a second Indo-Pakistani war in Kashmir • 1989 – Militancy in the region escalates • 1999 – Pakistani forces cross the LOC, and India responds by declaring war • 2005 – India and Pakistan agree to a new ceasefire

Divided Kashmir Indian Kashmir Pakistani Kashmir • India controls the southeast portion of Kashmir, which has the most fertile land • Pakistan controls the northwest, with a harsher climate and sparser population • Indian territory is governed as a state, called Jammu and Kashmir • Pakistan’s territory is divided into two regions: Azad Kashmir, or free Kashmir, which has its own government, and the Northern Areas, which are governed directly by Pakistan • Azad Kashmir is about 4, 500 square miles, and the Northern Areas are about 28, 000 square miles

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India’s Positions • The accession of Kashmir to India is legally indisputable • Religion is irrelevant in determining control of Kashmir—a large Muslim community supported the accession of Kashmir to India • The Pakistani sponsorship of terrorism in Kashmir disrupts the democratic process in the region • International intervention is out of the question, as Kashmir is strictly India’s affair

Pakistan’s Positions • Kashmir rightfully belongs to Pakistan due to their religious and economic ties • Pakistan does not provide material aid to any terrorists or insurgents in Kashmir • In accordance with the UN Security Council, Pakistan considers India’s claim to Kashmir invalid • The Kashmiri people should be allowed to choose between Pakistani and Indian control through a plebiscite

Kashmir’s Positions • Kashmiris overwhelmingly favor independence • A poll conducted in the Kashmiri capital of Srinagar in 2007 revealed that 87% of Kashmiris desire independence, 7% favor Indian rule, and 3% prefer Pakistani control • Kashmiris oppose Indian rule due to the restrictions placed on them by Indian security forces and alleged human rights abuses by the Indian government

The Mumbai Attacks and Kashmir • On November 26 th-29 th 2008, Mumbai, India’s greatest commercial capital, came under siege by ten terrorists. • Ten coordinated attacks, each conducted in populous areas of Mumbai, killed at least 173 people and left 308 injured. • Presently, the terrorists are suspected to have originated from Pakistan • Terrorist organization: Lashkar-e. Taiba • Currently being denied by Pakistani officials • Terrorists’ motives seem to be partly related to Kashmir • Lashkar-e-Taiba operates several training camps in Kashmir, and regularly carries out offensives against Indian forces in Jammu and Kashmir.

The Mumbai Attacks and Kashmir • These atrocities highlight the need for settlement of the Kashmir conflict to ensure lasting cooperation between India and Pakistan • Collaboration between these two nations could help combat extremism • The Mumbai attacks have engendered a rapid increase in tensions among Pakistani and Indian officials who are already engulfed in mutual distrust • India has accused Pakistan’s Inter-service Intelligence (ISI) of training and giving intelligence to Lashkar-e-Taiba as well as other terrorist organizations in Pakistan • Pakistan insists that it only gives the rebels in Kashmir diplomatic and moral support, not material aid or training. The symbol of Lashkar-e-Taiba

The War on Terror and Kashmir • Centered in the Middle East, but spread over multiple continents • An international conflict led by the United States, United Kingdom, and NATO forces against Islamic terrorism in response to the September 11 th attacks in the United States • Objectives include • • Securing American borders • • Ending state sponsorship of terrorism Preventing activities of international terrorist networks Preventing re-emergence of terrorism abroad. • United States presence in Central/South Asia and alliances with Pakistan and India in the War on Terror increase American ability to intervene in the Indo-Pakistani Peace Process • Pakistan’s emergence as a United States partner on the War on Terror • Pressure by Washington resulted in the banning of Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e. Muhammad in Kashmir • US donates about 1 billion dollars in military aid to Islamabad each year • Many factors contribute to Pakistani insecurity: • • US presence in Afghanistan (Western Border) • Deep intelligence ties between India, Afghanistan, and the US Indian presence on the Eastern Border

Musharraf and Ali Zardari: Pakistan’s Political Leadership Pervez Musharaff (2001 -2008) Asif Ali Zardari (Incumbent) • • Determined to normalize trade and political relations with India Proposed a four point solution to Kashmir: - gradual demilitarization - greater autonomy, but no independence - no changes to the region's borders - joint supervision mechanism or UN mandate over region • Banned Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e. Muhammad after they were accused of orchestrating an attack against the Indian Parliament • The ban’s impact was superficial and did little to hinder insurgency in Kashmir • Offered to “set Kashmir issue aside” • Has no support from Pakistani military on the issue • Despite his determination, the president has stated that he is ready to “thwart any aggression from the East” if need be

United Nations Involvement • The United Nations has played only a minor role in the Kashmir Conflict so far • UN involvement has been limited to ceasefire negotiations and an attempted plebiscite

UN-Brokered Ceasefires • During the 1948 Indo-Pakistani War, the UN Security Council passed Resolutions 39 and 47, establishing the creation of a United Nations Commission on India and Pakistan (UNCIP) • UNCIP then passed resolutions calling for a ceasefire across the Line of Control • The Security Council also brokered a ceasefire in the Indo-Pakistani War of 1965 and enforced it with Resolution 211

The Plebiscite • After the Indo-Pakistani War of 1948, UNCIP established the framework for a plebiscite to decide the future status of Kashmir • The plebiscite would offer Kashmiris a choice between Indian and Pakistani rule • Both Indian and Pakistani governments initially agreed to the plebiscite • Since 1948, the plebiscite has been repeatedly delayed • The Indian government claims that a requirement of Pakistani militant withdrawal has not been met, blaming Pakistan for the delay • The Pakistani government maintains its innocence and desire for the plebiscite, putting the blame on India

Initial Steps • The United Nations must take a more proactive role in resolving the Kashmir Conflict • The United Nations must first encourage the normalization of relations between India and Pakistan • Encourage sharing of intelligence and increased cooperation in combating extremism • Provide economic incentives to foster bilateral trade • Create a commission to investigate and prevent statesponsored terrorism in both nations • Provide peacekeeping troops to secure the borders of India, Pakistan, and Kashmir and to prevent the movement of militants

UN Plebiscite • Pros: • The plebiscite was recommended by the UNCIP as a method of resolving the conflict • The plebiscite is officially endorsed by the Pakistani government • Cons: • The currently proposed plebiscite would only allow the residents of Kashmir to choose between Indian or Pakistan control, when many desire the option of independence • The plebiscite has been repeatedly stalled due to disagreements between India and Pakistan over the requirements of Resolution 47

Plebiscite Result: Pakistani Control • Pros • Integrates Kashmir into a Muslim state, providing for greater religious harmony Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari • Cons • Pakistan has an unstable government • Non-Muslims may become second-class citizens and subject to persecution • Engenders Indian outrage and nationalism • Kashmiri citizens strongly prefer independence

Plebiscite Result: Indian Control • Pros • Places Kashmir in the control of a stable government Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh • Cons • Legitimizes the human rights abuses committed by the Indian government • Enrages Pakistani citizens and military, likely sparking conflict • Kashmiri citizens strongly prefer independence

Maintaining a Divided Kashmir • Pros • Requires the smallest investment of time and resources • Cons • Provides a source for continued tension between the two nations • Fuels nationalist sentiments among both Indian and Pakistani citizens • Goes against the will of the Kashmiri people

Kashmiri Independence • Pros • Satisfies the will of the Kashmiri people • Prevents the issue from being a point of contention between India and Pakistan • Precludes further human rights abuses from the Indian military • Diminishes the motivation of extremists and insurgents • Cons • Opposed by the Indian and Pakistani governments • Fledgling nation may not have a stable economy or government • The Hindu population would be a minority, and tensions between Muslims and Hindus could develop

Our Position • We believe that Kashmir must become an independent state • The United Nations must take a proactive role in securing Kashmiri sovereignty

A Proposal for a Solution 1. Establish a Kashmiri Sovereignty Commission (KSC) 1. 2. The commission would first determine the viability of Kashmiri independence in terms of economic and political stability The commission would then hold a referendum in Kashmir confirming the people’s desire for independence 2. Considering the results of the referendum, introduce a resolution urging the global community to support Kashmiri sovereignty 3. Use support from the global community to persuade India and Pakistan to recognize Kashmir as an independent nation 4. Draft a resolution in the Security Council recognizing Kashmir as a sovereign state and calling for demilitarization of the region 5. Establish a UN transitional government in Kashmir to develop infrastructure and security 6. Hold elections for an independent, parliamentary government

A Proposal for A Solution • This proposal is contingent on the participation of member nations in creating the necessary resolutions and commissions • If India and Pakistan fail to recognize Kashmir as independent, more forceful action could be taken; Kosovo provides a precedent • In this proposal, the United Nations acts as the medium used to achieve a lasting solution for the conflict

Conclusion • Greater understanding of this conflict---history and developments • The necessity of resolving this conflict, as well as potential solutions • The important role that the UN has in mediating the situation

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