The IT Workforce Ed Lazowska IT Public Policy

The IT Workforce Ed Lazowska IT & Public Policy Autumn 2004 1

Topics z Characterizing the IT workforce z Size of the IT workforce z Recent trends in IT workforce size z Longer-term trends in IT workforce size z Education for IT jobs z Positioning of Washington State z Positioning of the US as a whole z H-1 B’s, worldwide sourcing z A few miscellaneous thoughts 2

Freeman & Aspray, The Supply of Information Technology Workers 3 in the United States, Computing Research Association, 1999

4 Computer Systems Policy Project, Choose to Compete, 2004

Professional Level IT Workers Hold a Wide Array of Science, Engineering and Other Degrees 5 John Sargent, Senior Policy Analyst, U. S. Department of Commerce, presented to the Computing Research Association, 2/2004

Freeman & Aspray, The Supply of Information Technology Workers 6 in the United States, Computing Research Association, 1999

IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002 -2012 Employment, Numbers 7 John Sargent, Senior Policy Analyst, U. S. Department of Commerce, presented to the Computing Research Association, 2/2004

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Change in IT Occupational Employment Number, 2001 -2002 11 John Sargent, Senior Policy Analyst, U. S. Department of Commerce, presented to the Computing Research Association, 2/2004

Unemployment Rates 12 John Sargent, Senior Policy Analyst, U. S. Department of Commerce, presented to the Computing Research Association, 2/2004

Aggregate IT Employment 1999 -2002 13 John Sargent, Senior Policy Analyst, U. S. Department of Commerce, presented to the Computing Research Association, 2/2004

Occupational Growth Rates IT vs. All Occupations 14 John Sargent, Senior Policy Analyst, U. S. Department of Commerce, presented to the Computing Research Association, 2/2004

Recent Occupational Growth in Numbers 15 John Sargent, Senior Policy Analyst, U. S. Department of Commerce, presented to the Computing Research Association, 2/2004

IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002 -2012 Total Job Openings 16

Occupational Distribution of Projected S&E Job Openings (new jobs plus net replacements) 2002 -2012 70% 17 John Sargent, Senior Policy Analyst, U. S. Department of Commerce, presented to the Computing Research Association, 2/2004

The Market Perspective Degree Production vs. Projected Job Openings 18 John Sargent, Senior Policy Analyst, U. S. Department of Commerce, presented to the Computing Research Association, 2/2004

Education for the “innovation economy” z Once upon a time, the “content” of the goods we produced was largely physical 19

z Then we transitioned to goods whose “content” was a balance of physical and intellectual 20

z In the “innovation economy, ” the content of goods is almost entirely intellectual rather than physical 21

z Every state consumes “innovation economy” goods y. Information technology, biotechnology, telecommunications, … z We produce these goods! y. Over the past 20 years, the Puget Sound region has had the fastest pro-rata growth in the nation in the “high tech services” sector 22

What kind of education is needed to produce “innovation economy” goods? z National and regional studies conclude the 3/4 ths of the jobs in software require a Bachelors degree or greater (and it’s highly 23 competitive among those with this credential!)

Average Earnings as a Proportion of High School Graduates’ Earnings, 1975 to 1999 24

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WSU and UW State Funding, Per Student, Relative to Olympia-Defined “Peers” 29

z Washington is all geared up to fight the last war! 30

More broadly (some data is not current, but nothing much has changed) z Bachelors degrees, nationwide, 1997: y 222, 000 in business y 125, 000 in the social sciences y 105, 000 in education y 63, 000 in all of engineering y 25, 000 in computer science 31

z China granted only 1/4 as many Bachelors degrees in 1997 as did the US (325, 000 vs. 1. 2 M) y. But China granted 2. 5 times as many Bachelors degrees in engineering (149, 000 vs. 63, 000) z In 2003, China and India each produced about 200, 000 Bachelors degrees in engineering 32

U. S. Lags Other Nations in Share of 24 -Year-Olds With Natural Science, Engineering Degrees Also: The United States ranks 61 st out of 63 nations in the share of S&E degrees as a total of all bachelor’s degrees. 33 John Sargent, Senior Policy Analyst, U. S. Department of Commerce, presented to the Computing Research Association, 2/2004

z What’s the fastest-growing undergraduate major in America today? 34

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z At the doctoral level (also 1997): y 40, 000 J. D. ’s y 857 Ph. D. computer scientists x. And roughly half of the Ph. D. s in engineering and computer science were awarded to non-residents 36

Share of Total S&E Degrees Earned by Non -Resident Aliens, by Degree Level 37 John Sargent, Senior Policy Analyst, U. S. Department of Commerce, presented to the Computing Research Association, 2/2004

H-1 B visas z Roughly 20 K engineers/year enter on H-1 B’s y. Total IT + engineering workforce: ~5 M 38

Worldwide sourcing z It works both ways! The US ran a $60 B surplus in services trade in 2003 – it has grown every year since 1996 z Even at its peak, in 2001, trade-related layoffs represented 0. 6% of unemployment y. Fewer than 200 K jobs have shifted abroad in each of the past 3 years, but 15 M jobs have been lost in the US in each recent year z BLS projects a US workforce of 165. 3 M in 2012; Forrester Research projects 3. 3 M jobs outsourced by 2015 39

z Bill Wulf, President, National Academy of Engineering: y. If [managers] can get comparable talent at 1/5 th the cost in India, and if the start-up cost is small, and if the cost stays small, and if the productivity per unit cost is high enough, and if they can manage from 10, 000 miles and 12 times zones away – then they will outsource, and they should! y. The problem is the nation’s access to engineering talent; and it is not the individual manager in an individual company that is responsible for solving that problem. 40

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Freeman & Aspray, The Supply of Information Technology 43 Workers in the United States, Computing Research Association, 1999