The Initial Return Performance of Turkish REIT IPOs

The Initial Return Performance of Turkish REIT IPOs Kerem Arslanli*, Stephen Lee** And Dilek Pekdemir*** *Istanbul Technical University, Urban & Environmental Planning and Research Center, Taskisla Building No: 114 Taksim ISTANBUL. Tel: +90212 2492834. **Cass Business School, City University London, 106 Bunhill Row, London, EC 1 Y 8 TZ, England. Tel: +44 20 7040 5257. ***DTZ Pamir & Soyuer, Hakki Yeten Caddesi, 15/7, Şişli 34365 Istanbul Turkey. Tel: +90 (212) 231 5530 ext. 126

Introduction: Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) of equity securities often exhibit underpricing; i. e. common stock values tend to rise significantly from the offer price on the first day of trading. The evidence for Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) IPOs is less consistent. Early studies found evidence of overpricing; while later studies found evidence of underpricing. The present study examines the IPOs of the 17 Turkish REITs listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange from 1997 to 2010 and shows evidence of significant underpricing on the first day of trading.

Introduction: The most commonly used theory in the real estate literature as stated by Ling and Ryngaert (1997), Brounen and Eichholtz (2002) and Dimovski and Brooks (2006) to explain the initial underpricing was developed by Rock (1986) and involves the “winner's curse. ” The REIT IPO market, like the overall IPO market, also exhibits clustering or “waves” of issuances. Some periods, are “hot” markets with many new IPOs coming to the market. Other periods, are “cold” markets with very few IPO issuances. A number of theories and models have been put forward to explain this clustering. The Capital Demand Hypothesis, ; The Information Asymmetry Hypothesis and; The Investor Sentiment Hypothesis.

Introduction: Turkish REITs present an opportunity to test both the “winner curse” and the “REIT wave” hypotheses. First, most Turkish REITs have a particular portfolio of properties in mind when they issue an IPO. Second, as Figure 1 shows, since 1997 REIT IPOs in Turkey have shown both “hot” and “cold” market waves.

Turkish REITs: Turkish REITs were established in 1995 following the issue of the Communiqué on Principles Regarding Real Estate Investment Companies, Serial VI No. 11 in 1995. Like of REITs around the world Turkish REITs must deal primarily with portfolio management. In accordance with the Communiqué, the REIT’s portfolio is required to be diversified based on industry, region and real estate and is to be managed with a long-term investment purpose.

Turkish REITs: At most, 10% of its portfolio value may be invested in time deposits or demand deposits. Investments in foreign real estate and capital market instruments regarding may only constitute no more than 49% of REIT ’ s portfolio value. The land lots in the portfolio of the REIT, on which any project has not been realized for five years as of the acquisition date, may not exceed 10% of its portfolio value.

Turkish REITs: Table 1: Average Holdings of Turkish REITs End 2010

Methodology :

Results: Table 2: Initial and Excess Return Performance of Turkish REITs: 1997 -2010

Conclusions: We have set two goals for this paper. First, we seek to document the initial return performance of REIT IPOs in Turkey since 1997. Second, we seek to compare our findings with previous studies of REIT IPO pricing and clustering literature. The preliminary analysis of the 17 Turkish REIT IPOs yield some interesting results. First, the level of underpricing in Turkish REIT IPOs is substantially below that for US REITs but in line with the most recent studies in Europe and supports the “winners curse” explanation. Second, Turkish REITs show distinct IPO waves, with both “hot” and “cold” periods, and as suggested in the literature leading to higher returns in the “hot” markets. Nonetheless, the latest results for 2010 suggest overpricing of Turkish REIT IPOs has occurred, which may be a result of investors irrationally as to the prospects of the real estate market.

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