The influence of Climate Variability and Climate Change
The influence of Climate Variability and Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes, Climatic Variables and Societal Important Activities Isaac Azuz Adeath CETYS-University Ensenada International Campus Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Focus • This talk is about Climate Change and Climate Variability. • The very famous Climate Change is a regular process on earth, accelerated by the recent (speaking in geological times scale) human activities (Greenhouse Gases emissions, Deforestation, Land-Use and Soil Changes, Black Carbon H/N, Aerosols H/N). • In the other hand, Climate Variability (less famous phenomenon but equal important) is a natural process driven by solar energy and earth rotation through ocean/atmosphere/lithosphere interactions. • The spatial and temporal scales involved in this talk are thousand kilometers and decades. Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Content • Earth´s Energy Balance and Hydrologic Cycle • Climate Change and Climate Variability • Global Modes of Climate Variability • Decadal Climate Variability and Hydrologic Variables • Decadal Climate Variability and Climatic Variables • Decadal Climate Variability and Productive Activities (Agriculture and Fisheries) Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Earth´s Energy Balance and Hydrologic Cycle • There are two systems through and between the water moves: Earth and atmosphere. • Earth can be divided into: • oceans and seas (hydrosphere) • Land part (pedosphere and lithosphere) also includes water bodies (e. g. lakes, reservoirs, wetlands, rivers and lagoons). It could be divides into the land surface and the subsurface part. • The hydrologic cycle can be viewed as a natural machine, a constantly running, distillation and pumping system among three major systems with the hydrosphere as the major source of water, the atmosphere as the deliverer of water, and the land as user of water (Vijay et al. , 2017). Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Earth´s Energy Balance and Hydrologic Cycle Main Engine Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Earth´s Energy Balance and Hydrologic Cycle Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
The Physics Players g Image Source: Clipart. Fest Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx Image Source: School. Tutoring Academy
The development of civilization has occurred within this dynamic system Image Source: NASA, 2005. Earth´s Vital Signs Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Climate Change and Climate Varibility Image Source: Galveston Bay Foundation By Adam Peterson - Own work, CC BY-SA 4. 0, https: //commons. wikimedia. org/w/index. php? curid= 50581546 Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Climate Change and Climate Varibility • Climate Change Causes: Recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (IPCC). • Observed Changes in the Climate System: • The atmosphere and oceans have warmed • The amounts of snow and ice have diminished • The sea level has risen • Climate Change Impacts on Natural and Human Systems: • On natural and managed resources and systems, and their uses (freshwater, terrestrial, coastal and ocean systems; urban and rural areas, economic sectors and services; human health, security, livelihoods and poverty) Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Climate Change and Climate Varibility Atlas Source: The Guardian Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Climate Change and Climate Varibility Image Source: INECC, 2016 Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Climate Change and Climate Varibility Images Source: IPCC, 2015 Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Climate Change and Climate Varibility Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Global Modes of Climate Variability • According with the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC): • Much of the spatial structure of climate variability can be described as a combination of “preferred” patterns. • The most prominent of these patterns are know as a modes of climate variability. They impact weather and climate on many spatial and temporal scales. • Individual climate modes historically have been identified through spatial teleconnections. Indexes describing temporal variations of the climate mode can be formed. Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Global Modes of Climate Variability • Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). • Index: Mean Sea Surface Temperature. Enfield et al. (2001) and Trenberth and Shea (2006). Data source: http: //www. esrl. noaa. gov/psd/data/timeseries/AMO/ • North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) • Index: Sea Level Pressure difference. Hurrell (1995) and Jones et al. (1997). Data source: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao. shtml • Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) • Index: Sea Surface Temperature. Mantua et al. (1997) and Zhang et al. (1997). Data source: http: //jisao. washington. edu/pdo/PDO. latest Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Global Modes of Climate Variability Source PDO: Mantua 2000 (JISAO-University of Washington). Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Global Modes of Climate Variability Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Global Modes of Climate Variability Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Global Modes of Climate Variability Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Decadal Climate Variability and Hydrologic Variables Data Source: US Census Bureau Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx Data Source: US Geological Survey
Decadal Climate Variability and Hydrologic Variables Data Source: US Geological Survey Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx Data Source: JISAO
Decadal Climate Variability and Hydrologic Variables Data Source: US Geological Survey Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx Data Source: US Geological Survey
Decadal Climate Variability and Hydrologic Variables Data Source: US Geological Survey Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx Data Source PDO: JISAO and USGS Discharge
Decadal Climate Variability and Climatic Variables Data Source: Texas A&M Agri. Life Research and Extension Center Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx Data Source PDO: JISAO and Texas A&M Agri. Life Research and Extension Center
Decadal Climate Variability and Climatic Variables Data Source: NOAA National Environnemental Satellite, Data, and Information Services (NOAA-NESDIS) Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Decadal Climate Variability and Climatic Variables Data Source: NOAA National Environnemental Satellite, Data, and Information Services (NOAA-NESDIS) Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Decadal Climate Variability and Climatic Variables Source of data: MONTLY LOWEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR DALLAS FORTWORTH AIRPORT Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Decadal Climate Variability and Productive Activities A: Oaxaca and Tmax r=0. 79 B: Oaxaca and Tmin r=0. 82 C: Veracruz and AMO r=0. 78 D: Baja California Sur And PDO r=-0. 62 Source: Azuz and Servin (in press) Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Decadal Climate Variability and Productive Activities A: BCS Potatoes and Tmin r=0. 94 B: CAM Maize and Tmin r=0. 93 C: COL Sugar Cane and TMAX r=-0. 92 D: COL Lemon and Precip r=-0. 90 Source: Azuz and Servin (in press) Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Decadal Climate Variability and Productive Activities A: COL Lemon and AMO r=0. 87 B: VER Sugar Cane and AMO r=0. 72 C: QROO Chili and AMO r=-0. 70 D: COL Pasture and NAO r=-0. 71 Source: Azuz and Servin (in press) Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Decadal Climate Variability and Productive Activities Source: Azuz and Servin (in press) Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Decadal Climate Variability and Productive Activities Source: Azuz and Servin (in press) Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Decadal Climate Variability and Productive Activities Source: Azuz and Servin (in press) Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Decadal Climate Variability and Productive Activities Source: Azuz and Servin (in press) Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx Total accumulated impact from 1980 -2014 (loss) ≈ 2. 8 billion US Dls
Decadal Climate Variability and Productive Activities Source: Azuz and Servin (in press) Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Conclusion • The influence of humans activities and the recent social behavior, has imposed changes on the climate system globally. • The decadal climate variability and their modes of variability (low-frequency rain, TMAX and TMIN, PDO, AMO, NAO, MEI) can impact regional climate and several societal important activities in the long-term. • The decadal climate variability should be such important as climate change in public policies, managerial activities, and in any field of human knowledge and research. . Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
Acknowledgements • The Office for Sustainability. The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley • Engineering College. CETYS-University • Dr. Noe Vargas. The University of Texas Rio Grande Valle • Thank you very much for your attention! Isaac. azuz@cetys. mx
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